A look ahead to the 2009-2010 basketball season

by markdash on Apr 9, 2009 5:19 PM PDT Comment 12 comments

Reading about all the defections to the NBA from Pac-10 teams got me thinking:

Are we the prohibitive favorites to win the conference next year?

Check out these notable graduations/defections:

Arizona: Budinger, Wise, Hill
Arizona State: Harden, Pendergraph
UCLA: Collison, Josh Shipp, Aboya
USC: Hackett, Taj Gibson, DeRozan (has not hired an agent)
Washington: Dentmon, Brockman

I'm ignoring Oregon, Stanford, OSU, and Wazzou for purposes of this exercise (although Wazzou losing Bennett might be bigger than any single player leaving).

We return everyone except for Wilkes, who sucked anyway. As I see it, Washington should be our strongest competition, as they return a bunch of rotation players, including Isaiah Thomas, Overton, Bryan-Amaning, and Pondexter. Considering how gutted the rest of the teams will be, I think it could very easily be a two-team race.

Oh, and in before "UCLA doesn't rebuild, they reload."

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It all depends on how fast the young players develop

I really like our chances if this year’s incoming class is sluggish and as unimpressive as this year’s class. But USC’s got Sidney and that transfer player, UCLA has Honeycutt and a couple of other recruits (as well as other current 5 star “Ben Ball Warriors” who could take a big step in their game). Washington has a great young PG in Thomas.

I’d have to say that unless our interior play significantly improves, Washington is the favorite to repeat. Thomas is incredibly explosive, and though Brockman’s loss will hurt them, I still think they’re pretty strong. I’d rank Cal and UCLA second and third, depending on how UCLA’s youngsters play.

If USC loses Gibson and Derozen, I think they fall into the second tier of teams.

by Sharkbit12 on Apr 9, 2009 6:16 PM PDT reply actions

I think Washington has some pretty good recruits coming in – but they lose both Brockman and Dentmon. As good as Thomas is, I think they have to fall a little bit next year.

UCLA and USC are up in the air. UCLA is losing a ton of players assuming Holiday really leaves. USC probably will as well.

On paper, I guess this does make Cal the favorite, although hardly a prohibitive one. Cal is the only team of those four I can really see being better next year.

by Tedfordisgod on Apr 9, 2009 6:32 PM PDT reply actions

It's a four-horse race

Cal: Returns nearly everyone, adds what we hope is some more physicality in the post as well as a real backup point guard, but no big new acquisitions.

UCLA: Very thin at guard if Jrue Holliday leaves, but he probably won’t. Their frontcourt depth is going to be ridiculous as they add 3 more post players and 2 wings to Keefe, Dragovic, Morgan and Gordon.

USC: Up in the air because of Gibson and DeRozan, but getting Renardo Sidney was a huge coup.

Washington: Having Abdul Gaddy land in their lap doesn’t hurt. He should be able to immediately replace Dentmon’s production. Brockman is hard to replace, of course, but they have some solid frontcourt players behind him.

Others: OSU gets a lot of new players, only loses Rickey Claitt. Could make a run at the tournament. Oregon returns everyone; I leave it to the reader to decide if that’s a good thing or not. ASU loses Harden and Pendergraph, so you have to figure them for regression. WSU’s roster is gutted, as they lose almost every contributor other than Klay Thompson. Stanford’s in even worse shape, as is Arizona— each only figures to get one significant scorer back (Landry Fields and Nic Wise).

It’s hard to predict at this point, because the conference is having such massive roster turnover this season.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Apr 9, 2009 7:50 PM PDT reply actions

agreed

Arizonas and Stanford will be way down, WSU probably down as well, Oregon and especially OSU might improve significantly, potentially one of them gets into the top 3.

IF SC loses Hackett, Gibson AND DeRozan, they will be down. Bring back one of those guys to team with the rest of that athletic team and that incoming frosh and they’ll probably be about where they were this year, without the late season run. Still, those are some big losses without the depth to back it up like ucla.

ucla loses their 3 senior starters, but they won’t really be down unless dragovic goes to europe and holliday leaves as well. If they do come back, they’re probably not a championship team, but I still wouldn’t bet against them getting in the top 3 or 4.

UW: we’ll see what they do without Brockman. I don’t think Romar is a particularly good coach, and I think IT will have a bit tougher go in the paint without defenders needing to stay honest on Brockman. But that freshman is apparently the real deal.

In the end, it’s about how we can do compared to last year. Can we improve on 1-3 against the LA schools? I say yes. Can we go at least 3-1 against the Arizonas? I think so. Hopefully we can sweep the furd, but I don’t want to count on a win in Palo Alto until I see it. I think we can at least split against the Oregons, even though they will both be better. I doubt we can sweep the washingtons again, but who knows? I think most likely we pick up a game or two against LA and Stanford and lose a game to the Washingtons, putting us 1 up from last year. Is 12-6, with a win in the Pac-10 tourney reasonable? Is it good enough? I would say that record, coupled with at least 1 win in the NCAAs (2 if the match-up is good) would be about right.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by CBKWit on Apr 10, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions

at first instinct

I would say 2-2 versus the LAs, 1-1 versus the Furd, 3-1 versus the Washingtons, 3-1 versus the Oregons, and 3-1 versus the Arizonas, for the same record you came up with.

by markdash on Apr 10, 2009 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions

There's basically no excuse for losing to next year's Stanford team

This isn’t hating, it’s a team which is starting Drew Shiller and Will Paul, has eight scholarship players, and whose only incoming freshman (to a team which went 6-12 and lost 3 key contributors) tore his ACL during his senior season of high school.

I don’t expect more than 3 or 4 wins from them in conference, and that might be optimistic. Cal had better not be one of them.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Apr 11, 2009 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions