Coach Tedford the Playcaller, Part I

This is the first post of several concerning a discussion Hydro and I were having about Coach Tedford's playcalling. This first post is a general discussion of conservative versus risky playcalling..
Hydro's discussion a few months back on the nature of our playcalling against USC did get me thinking about what a team needs to do to upset the powers that be. Is it really all adrenaline, hype, and a midget running back that breaks through the tackle box?
Then the wise Chris of Smart Football posted something prescient to that internal dialogue. There are many snippets that I found useful, and I'd thought I'd present them here.
On the flipside, almost every week of the season I see teams go to Southern Cal, LSU, or Ohio State, and pretty much give up all hope of winning in the name of "keeping it close and winning it in the fourth quarter." As outlined above, this might be the worst strategy against such teams. They have little chance of winning on the merits, so what they need to do is flatten the tails and increase the chance for a shocker: take risks, and hope theircoin flips go in their favor. Maybe they won't. Maybe they get blown out. But not taking those chances is a surefire way to set their low chance of winning in stone.
This has been very much the strategy with USC the past several seasons. Let's examine four of the last five Trojan losses against Pac-10 opponents.:
2008: Oregon State builds a 21 point lead against USC, holds on.
2007: Oregon builds a 14 point lead against USC, holds on
2006: Oregon State builds a 23 point lead, holds on
2003: Cal builds a 14 point lead, holds on
The interesting thing is that in every year USC won the division, and all those teams eventually blew winnable games due to perhaps taking too many risks. But it does lend credence to the idea that playing for the go-ahead early on is wiser.
As for our history against them?
Cal vs USC
2008: Cal trails by a touchdown the majority of the game, gets one crack in the third quarter, gets hosed by a call I still don't understand, ballgame.
2007: Tied game going into the 4th quarter. Loss.
2006: Tied game going into the 4th quarter. Loss.
2005: Blowout
2004: Trailed by 6 going into the 4th quarter. Fail.
Only two teams have come back to beat USC in the 4th quarter since 2003: Stanford (fluke of flukes) and Texas.
Yet, much like with David Romer's paper where he observed that NFL coaches probably don't go for it on fourth down enough, there are external and likely irrelevant reasons that deter coaches from employing a true "risky-underdog" strategy: the risk that the coach will get fired. I am advocating here that underdogs go for it and increase the calculated risk they take on. (Keep in mind that you can go overboard on this. Chucking the ball forty yards downfield every play, while risky, would not increase your scoring or even chance of winning because you'd become predictible and downright silly. It's about calculated risk.)
But there are real costs -- at least for the coach -- of getting blown out. And make no mistake, the bargain for a greater chance of winning includes the greater chance of getting thrashed. Maybe this should be irrelevant -- a win is a win and a loss is a loss. But a blowout loss has collateral effects, even if they are purely psychological and emotional. You can lose recruits, you can lose donations, and you can lose your job. Look at Mike Shanahan with the Broncos. He was on the hotseat, but he lost his job primarily because Denver got blown out in their final game. I don't necessarily think that was because his team took on increased risk, but people do not tolerate ugly defeats, rational or not.
As far as I know, and at least in recent times, Tedford rarely loses games by more than two touchdowns. However, it also makes it tougher for us to beat USC, because we might be holding ourselves back from making too many mistakes to try and take the game at the end.
Similarly, there might be real gains for an underdog to just "keep it close" with a big boy without ever having a real chance of winning. People discount moral victories, but if such and such team can "keep it close" with USC, then they get all kinds of accolades and possibly even confidence going into the following weeks. But if they employed the risky-underdog strategy, then they might gain a slight marginal increase for a victory, with a steeper increase in the chance of getting buzzsawed right off the field (remember skewness).
Pretty much. We've prided ourselves on close losses to USC. Even though we haven't beaten them in six years, we've played them well, and always had a chance to take each one. But no dice.
Hydro: I think this is a very thoughtful blog post.
Now, what can Tedford take away from this? The possibility that he needs to be more aggressive on offense when playing USC since the talent level between Cal and USC is not equal (for clarification, by "aggressive" I mean passing more since for the average pass attempt gains more than the average rush attempt).
Upon first thought, this seems a bit wild. The last thing I think a coach would want to do is get wild and risky against USC's defense. Getting risky can lead to turnovers (in this case interceptions). The more times USC's offense has the ball, the more times they'll score since USC's offense is probably better than any Pac-10 defense. The traditional coach's manual would probably say something like "minimize turnovers, and maintain ball possession to keep the opposing offense off the field." This indeed seems to be the mantra which Tedford has followed over the years (most noticeable and memorable in the 2008 Cal vs. USC game).
Has it this strategy worked? Well, if you're looking at mere wins and losses, then the answer is No. So does that mean Cal needs to be more aggressive and pass more?
Well, every game is different. But I would still say No. Cal doesn't need to be drastically more aggressive on offense (pass more) in 2009.
In the 2008 Cal vs. USC game, Cal attempted 31 passes for a 4.5 yard average. Cal rushed the ball 20 times for a 3.0 yard average (excluding negative rush yards from QB sacks on pass plays). In terms of achieving an equilibrium of pass attempt yardage and rush attempt yardage, Cal did pretty well. Perhaps a few more passes would have been statistically beneficial but otherwise I think the run/pass ratio was fairly acceptable. Had Cal's pass attempt average been something like 5.5 yards per attempt, and Cal's rush average been around 2.0 yards per attempt, then yes, I would say Cal should pass more.
But Cal had a decent pass attempt and rush attempt equilibrium. So there really isn't any need, statistically at least, to pass much more. As of now, I've been talking lots of stats, but let's talk real life too. Cal's defense last year was darn good. One of Cal's best defenses in the Tedford years, if not perhaps the best (some say 2004 was the best defense but a few people say otherwise). In 2008, Cal didn't need to get extraordinarily risky on offense to beat USC when Cal had such a good defense. Cal could rely on its defense to keep the game close. Cal's defense did keep the game close and it really came down to the Cal offense. Unfortunately, Cal's offense did more damage to itself with untimely and critical penalties than what USC did to it. So while Cal's offense failed to score, I wouldn't necessarily say that it's because they were massively out-gunned.
Without a doubt, USC's team is more talented than Cal's. More of their players will probably get drafted and get drafted higher on any given year than Cal's players. But Cal isn't so far behind USC that Cal needs to get drastically aggressive. As Smart Football suggests, it's really those teams that are head and shoulders far below the superior team that need to be very aggressive. I don't think Cal qualifies as that team. Cal wasn't that team in 2008, nor is Cal that team in 2009.
In 2009, Cal will have a pretty solid defense returning and (hopefully) a better offense. With a solid defense, Cal can rely on its defense to keep the game close and won't have to just start rolling the dice on offense. Instead, Cal can stick with the usual gameplan.
Do you guys feel that Cal should stick with the usual gameplan to beat USC?
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I think he is just right in his playcalling
Looking back at some of the videos of the USC game last year, for example, you could see our offensive line just crumbling. They “brought pressure” with just the 4 linesmen and we had trouble protecting the qb even with our offensive line + TE + running back. I think you run out of options when that happens so consistently and I feel that Tedford made the right calls given the circumstances.
by elbarto83 on Apr 7, 2009 6:34 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Hmm, then let me ask you this.
Did Tedford adjust by calling plays that counteracted the pressure in the pocket, i.e. quick slant routes, swings and screen passes, etc.? It felt like he let Riley out of the bag late in the game and let him throw up for grabs after one successful drive.
More generally,
Does Tedford adapt to the play on the field, or does he stick to a gameplan regardless of the results on the field?
by Avinash Kunnath on Apr 7, 2009 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Throw out Oregon in 2007 from the list
They’re the one team that “legitimately” beat USC during the Caroll era. By that I mean if it was a best of 7 series, they would have won the series. They were just a better team and caught USC during an injury plagued part of the season too.
More importantly, in the other 3 games listed, it was a early Pac-10 game for USC. Personally, I think it is a case of USC having early season “gitters” on the road. One can hardly call Cal’s play-calling in 2003 “risky” nor can the same be said of OSU’s 2008 strategy of pounding the ball between the tackles with a small shifty back. (and I just don’t remember what happened in the OSU 2006 game, strategy wise)
Plus, you should have heard how excited Tedford was that Cal was getting USC early this year at the Tiny Bates Banquet. (by that I mean he raised his voice slightly)
by kencraw on Apr 7, 2009 7:23 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Regarding Oregon 2007: Perhaps, but it depends on who had the homefield advantage, on whether they played all 7 games with that same roster that suited up for Oregon.
There are actually some things I noticed about the playcalling in OSU 2008. Obviously the pieces fell into place with Rodgers picking up many of the grunt yards, but it was a little bit more than Quizz carrying that team; Moveao did some pretty impressive stuff in the first half too.
I should be clearer with semantics; when I mean a risky play, I mean an unconventional play, where fans don’t see the playcall that is coming. That is the complaint I hear many Cal fans voice, that Tedford is predictable because they see the outcome of that play coming.
by Avinash Kunnath on Apr 7, 2009 7:42 AM PDT up reply actions
You are correct—Moevao definitely had a lot to do with that win. He managed to play mistake free football and didn’t try to do too much. Against a great D like USC always tends to field it’s easy for a QB to hurry his offense and, essentially, be the reason for his team’s failure. He was over 60% on the day for about 170 and two scores which is the perfect way to keep people off your running game.
Plus we had literally everyone playing like their hair was on fire. If you’re ever on YouTube watching that game, Stroughter and both the Rodgers brothers are throwing some monster blocks to open things up and the O-Line had one of their best performances of the year. I believe that Quizz actually put Mays out of the game that day, no joke.
Regardless, it was more than just Quizz that day but at the same time, it never hurts to have a freshman RB pop up and surprise a bunch of d-bags like SC with a pair of scores and about 190 yards. Nope, not one bit.
I was very impressed by the playcalling too, which I’ll get to in more detail the next post in the series. It was very crisp, with some nice playcalls, and Moevao was picture perfect when they needed him to be.
I also haven’t cited one of the obvious reasons for the 2008 upset, which was giving the Trojans team over a week and a half to get their butts kissed all over national TV. Not that Oregon State didn’t play well, but USC played flatfoot football for one half before finally waking up to the fact that they bled too. Nevertheless, that’s a different discussion.
by Avinash Kunnath on Apr 7, 2009 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Theoretical 7 game series
By a 7 game series I mean if you were to play that exact same game in the exact same place with the exact same players. In other words, I’m not trying to consider whether the issues that affect real 7 game series (home/away, endurance, strategy learnings, etc.) would change the outcome. Just whether the regular bounces of the ball and perhaps odd mistakes by a team that wouldn’t happen every game would change the outcome.
I contend the only game USC has played since 2003 that would result in a “theoretical” 7 game series loss was the 2007 Oregon game. Even the NC game versus Texas I think USC wins more times than not (although it was close enough to be debatable).
I would definitely agree with this
Yes, Oregon built a lead against USC, but not through fluke plays and risky playcalling. The Ducks straight up faced the Trojans and beat them.
Conversely, the Stanford game (in ’07) fits the pattern much better, because even though Stanford was losing until the very end, their upset win was predicated on taking gambles and getting (extremely) lucky breaks.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
It seems to me that when we play USC the entire team tightens up a little and gets the yips about making mistakes. The play calling seems to be aggressive enough, but as Avinash said, they are a bit predictable and very much in context of trends and established patterns for the offense.
More important, though, I think is the psychological aspect. It really does seem like the entire team, from Tedford on down to the kids wrangling the balls behind the bench, get so preoccupied with not screwing the pooch, that they end up not playing loose. And against a team like those SC has had in the past decade, that is a sure way to lose.
But then, this is all based on observation, speculation, and gut feeling, so I am more than likely completely wrong.
Yeah, well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by SoCal Oski on Apr 7, 2009 8:31 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Do you feel maybe some tricky calling could improve this psychological mindset? I would say we psychologically overwhelmed ourselves in last year’s game and in 2006, but in 2007 we weren’t as bad.
by Avinash Kunnath on Apr 7, 2009 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions
our 2008 game was lost by us based on
poor performance. We were not beaten by U$c.
While I agree with the first part of the post that you cannot get to conservative, I don’t think that has been our problem on offense, generally against U$c. Our problems have been of the excecution variety.
Go Bears Go
by Rocksanddirt on Apr 7, 2009 8:45 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Well let's focus on generalities instead of just the SC game.
In general, do you feel Tedford adopts conservative mentalities in his playcalling, game by game?
by Avinash Kunnath on Apr 7, 2009 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions
I do not.
I general I think he likes a mix of play calling and that he’s not to conservative (also likes the occasional full trick play). also, some of the ‘riskier’ play calls are determined by down-distance-field position and/or reads by the qb on the defense.
So, some times the same play is called and it’s a 20 yd post, and other times the same play is a 3 yrd swing.
Go Bears Go
by Rocksanddirt on Apr 7, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I just get the sense that against USC there’s an atmosphere where their reputation is too much for the Bears to get past. It seems everything is done with the attitude of ’don’t mess up and get embarrassed’ rather than ‘take it to them an make plays’.
It’s not hard to understand why, but if you’re going into the game with that mentality you’re already at a disadvantage.
This might affect play calling, as you don’t want to get blown out early on, leading to conservative calls.
At the same time, execute on a few plays early on, gain some confidence, start opening the playbook. I think we saw that during Riley’s first drive until the penalty called back the TD and ruined that.
by turkey on Apr 7, 2009 8:53 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I’ve seen that the last two time’s we’ve been in LA. But in 2007 I’m not sure we executed any worse than the Trojans, albeit both teams might have been playing the game in the middle of the Bay.
Do you think it’s more of an intimidation factor of Tedford teams never having won in LA that permeates through the rest of the squad?
by Avinash Kunnath on Apr 7, 2009 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions
This is a tough question to answer
and in this case I think both of you are right.
I don’t think the 2008 team needed to be more aggressive, because its defense was good enough to keep the team in the game. Ditto for the 2004 team. However, for every other team, I would have liked JT to be more aggressive and to pull out all the trick plays he could reasonably have pulled out. 2004 and 2008 losses were not because of the lack of the trick play or being aggressive but because the offense could not come through in the clutch. Rodgers was great all the 2004 game, but once he got to the goal line, he (or the playcalling) fell apart. One completion and 2004 is a much different year. 2008 did not boil down to one play, but the QBs did not have a good game. If the QBs even have a decent game, the end result could have been different.
Honestly, as well as the defense played in 2008, I thought Gregory did a crappy job of adjusting to USC’s predictable playcalling: rollout bootleg from Sanchez on on every 3rd down, resulting in a first down. Cal never did stop this play resulting in 1st down after 1st down. It’s hard to blame the defense for that game, but they didn’t manage to get the ball back too often in these situations. Equally at fault was the offense though, for which I blame mostly the QB play (if I recall both Riley and Longshore played that game).
by oaktownmario on Apr 7, 2009 9:55 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
If you call a game too aggressively you can get blown the fuck out like Texas Tech v. OU last year. and nobody wants that.
by Longhorn@Berkeley on Apr 7, 2009 9:57 AM PDT reply actions
Not sure if this is a proper analogy
Texas Tech’s defense was MUCH worse than Cal’s defense, and they were overwhelmed from the opening snap.
But yes, it’s definitely important not to go testosterone crazy and start blitzing eight on every possession.
by Avinash Kunnath on Apr 7, 2009 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Yet another post Hydro. Rec’d.
I think, in part, Smart Football’s strategy/mindset is correct: Punch ‘em in the mouth early and keep your foot on their neck (aka, the 2008 Sugar Bowl). That should be the strategy against any opponent, no? I’m not sure “playcalling on offense” is the entirety of it. It certainly helps, yes, but it’s an entire team-wide philosophy involving all players and coaches. This includes 4th and shorts, blitzing a CB from Sanchez’s left side (to avoid that QB bootleg left!) aggressive special teams play. Perhaps Cal did that to the best of their abilities. Or perhaps they were thinking “let’s stay in this and try and win it late.” I’m not sure.
Heaps and Hinder...come on down!
This whole conversation, for me, still begs the question
What is “conservative” play-calling?
Is it running the ball, in general? Is it the lack of elaborate trick/gimmick plays? Is it synonymous with “predictable”, as in run the ball in short-yardage situations, throw the ball in long-yardage situations, and employ a 50:50 mix on first and ten? Is it synonymous with an alternative definition of “predictable”?
I ask these questions somewhat rhetorically, because I think fans questioning play calling is more often than not a red herring. Good execution always trumps good play calling. And I agree with SoCal above: our Bears perennially lose to USC (and to UCLA in Los Angeles) because of overall team psychology—the old “monkey on the back”—rather than game planning, play calling, etc..
Go Bears!
by California Pete on Apr 7, 2009 12:47 PM PDT reply actions
Conservative and risky might as well stand for conventional and unconventional. Conventional means doing something that not only the opposition is expecting, but also something even fans can anticipate. Unconventional is doing something that catches the majority of us off guard.
by Avinash Kunnath on Apr 7, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions
All insightful thoughts
A few things to add/consider:
If we’re using our annual matchup against USC to highlight our offense and playcalling, I think it’s important to look at last year’s game to illustrate why play calling was not the primary reason we lost.
Was play calling a factor? Absolutely. Having Jahvid run the direct snap (much to the ire of Ken Crawford) on 3rd down on our opening drive after successfully running the ball previously was unnecessarily risky, and killed the drive.
Lofting the ball over the middle knowing full well that our receivers were getting their heads nearly knocked off by Taylor Mays and company didn’t do much to build any offensive cohesion.
But if anything, I think last year’s game served to validate Tedford’s offensive philosophy, which I sincerely think is about getting down to the basics, and executing on the fundamentals. We really should not have won the game (obviously we didn’t), but we absolutely could have with our defense holding the Trojans to 10 points going into the 4th (even with Turner’s bs “TD” catch). I believe he walked away knowing that he and his staff had for the most part game planned well enough for the game, but saw the team was hurt by a lack of execution.
8 penalties for 50 yards. A game-tying TD called back on a penalty. A beat up offensive line. 3 trips into Trojan territory in the 3rd quarter alone that resulted in 0 points.
I don’t think Tedford walked away thinking, “man, we should have tried a few more creative or trick plays. I could have gotten in Cignetti’s ear about getting more agressive with the play calling.”
Rather, I think it was more of "You can’t beat yourself in situations, have penalties, get a touchdown called back, especially when you play a defense like that." And that’s an exact quote.
In sum, I’m in agreement about not needing to rely on creative play calling. Stick in there when it makes sense (if that statement even makes sense), but I believe that we can beat the cream of the conference’s crop if we’re healthy and we execute.
www.bearswithfangs.com
by bearswithfangs on Apr 7, 2009 12:58 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
This speaks to the original point: Do you play for the jugular, giving it your all early on to try and pick up a big enough margin to hold onto? Or do you play consistently for 60 minutes hoping for daylight?
Over an aggregate, USC is better than Cal in every aspect. So expecting Cal to win the game in the 4th quarter might seem a little unreasonable. That’s the crux of the argument; be creative rather than conventional to get that extra edge early on, play from ahead, and take some of the pressure off the Bears’s offense.
by Avinash Kunnath on Apr 7, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions
I disagree that they are better than us in every respect.
maybe a few years ago that was true. but I only see now that they get the benifit of the media doubt. I don’t see it on the field.
Go Bears Go
Dammit
I should have just written my own freaking blog post in response to this.
www.bearswithfangs.com
No reason not to!
We don’t own your comments (as much as Twist would like to think he does). Just cite them in your blog post.
by Avinash Kunnath on Apr 7, 2009 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions
haha, good point
it’s a good way to build cross-blog traffic. be my guest!
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
Well I already had posted a link on the site...
…but I just might do as you suggested.
‘Nash, in response to your thoughts. I was thinking a bit that while Cal is outmatched in nearly every category as you mentioned, I still felt strongly that if Cal doesn’t shoot itself in the foot, there’s no reason we can’t overcome that hurdle and beat the Trojans straight up.
I was then immediately reminded of 2004 game and became depressed.
Should we get creative on offense? I wouldn’t mind dabbling in it, just as we did last year. But you asked, “Do you play for the jugular, giving it your all early on to try and pick up a big enough margin to hold onto? Or do you play consistently for 60 minutes hoping for daylight?”
I wouldn’t see why you wouldn’t wanna bring the offensive fireworks. I don’t think Tedford goes in wanting to just squeak by. But I think he does understand that any chance of building a strong lead is make sure that he and his coordinators have put together the best gameplan of the year and that his team executes it to a tee.
www.bearswithfangs.com
so much of it comes down to execution....
we started numerous drives last year at 1st and 15 due to a false start.
it’s hard to be balanced, and unpredictable in that situation.
Would I like to see a few more chances taken early in a big game? sure. but I’m not ready to say we are too conservative.
Go Bears Go
Perhaps. But I’ve looked at it this way
Our 2008 offense was noticeably inferior to year’s past, especially with Best banged up and Riley concussed.
Our 2008 defense carried us most of the season.
USC’s 2008 defense was one of the greatest defenses ever put on a college turf.
USC’s 2008 offense was competent, if not spectacular.
By these metrics, the Cal team that went into LA was not on even footing, although the defense definitely overperformed in helping the turgid offense out.
Keeping those things in mind, do you feel that for the fireworks early rather than late (the deep lob attempts on most every play) would’ve been a preferrable option?
by Avinash Kunnath on Apr 8, 2009 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Sometimes... It ain't about the playcall
Both teams know what’s coming, and whichever unit straight up beats its counterpart wins the play. It ain’t rocket science! BEAT YO MAN!
HYDROTECH IS FREE!
Predictability
We seem to be hovering around a definition of “conservative” that is closely related to predictability. And good play calling, almost by definition, would seem to require a lack of predictability—i.e., not be conservative. But can an offense actually be too unpredictable?
If a hypothetical offense was perfectly unpredictable, the defense is still going to be “right”, on average, 50% of the time, simply by guessing run vs. pass. Now, there is obviously a lot more to play calling than choosing run or pass, but it nonetheless seems that unpredictability allows the defense to guess correctly a significant number of times. Or, it simply encourages the defense to forgo guessing or predicting the play and instead rely on a read-and-react approach. If you’ve got the athletes—as USC always does—then read and react is not a bad strategy, especially when the defense then seizes the initiative through its own unpredictable blitz schemes. In other words, I’m not sure you beat USC by simply being “unpredictable” on offense.
I think Tedford’s approach, and the approach of a lot of good coaches, is to actually be intentionally predictable for much of the game. Show the defense a steady diet of certain tendencies, encouraging them to abandon their disciplined read-and-react approach. Then, when it appears you’ve successfully baited the hook and gotten the defense to bite, to start guessing, to start assuming they know what you’re going to do, that’s when you strike with something different and catch them off-balance. In previous posts, Hydro has already illustrated examples of Tedford doing exactly this. (One post involving a touchdown catch by THA1 against UCLA in 2007 springs to mind.)
In short, I think Tedford’s offense is predictable, by design, and that is actually a good thing. The challenge, though, is to execute so flawlessly that even when you’re being predictable, you’re still able to move the ball. This requires a strong, consistent running game, and it requires mistake-free play from the quarterback—a signal caller capable of making the important read/throw on third down to keep the chains moving, while still being patient enough to not force the issue prematurely and produce a turnover. Needless to say, we’re all still waiting for the next Aaron Rodgers.
Go Bears!
by California Pete on Apr 7, 2009 6:25 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
I agree that Tedford does set up defenses by showing tendencies which -as you suggested- poses a challenge of executing flawlessly and winning those individual player battles to overcome predictability and move the ball.
I think you bring up a good point that being completely unpredictable could work against a team by removing the ability to “set up” and counter-punch a counter-punch.
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
I’d also just like to say that all this criticism and talk is sort of taking place in a vacuum. It’s easy to say we should run/pass more or be more/less conservative but we’re viewing this stuff completely out of context. We’re not taking into account the flow of the game, the defense’s reactions to certain plays and/or formations, etc.
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
Lots of excellent discussion above - I'll have to try to add to it.
The one constant with all of our games against USC since 2003 has been our defense. There is perhaps something to the idea that the myth of USC’s dominance might get into the heads of Cal’s offense. I don’t believe that for a second regarding the defense – they always come out fired up ready to hit someone. I’ll propose that the one blowout was much more due to turnovers (Ayoob!) than a defensive break down. In every other USC game we’re right in it in the 4th quarter. I think the defense has been incredible.
Two of those games were clearly our best performances: 2003 and 2004. In both of those games our offense was very successful – we won with 34 points (24 in regulation) and we lost with only 17, but played an incredibly effective ball control offense and arguably lost because of special teams (USC punt returns, missed FGs, etc.)
So…did we play more unconventionally on offense in either of those games? Absolutely not. In 2003 Adimchinobe Echemandu ran 34 times for 147 yards. In 2004 Aaron Rodgers had the game of his life, throwing short completion after short completion. I can’t recall him going long for the entire game (partly out of necessity because of Chase Lyman’s injury).
The Bears won in ’03 and arguably should have won in ’04 because they were more talented/executed better than the offenses that faced USC in 2005-2008. Our QBs since then have been: Joe Ayoob, OK Nate Longshore, Broken Nate Longshore and QB cyclotron 2008.
So no, I think the playcalling against USC has been mostly great, and at the very least adequate. The problem is that USC has not had a down defense in the Pete Carroll era. To beat that defense, you need to have all of the pieces put together, and even then it might not be enough. Cal hasn’t had all of the pieces together since 2004, and Pete Alamar managed to ruin that one.
With that said, Cal could have all of the pieces together this year. Kevin Riley will almost certainly have his chance to pull of the win that only Reggie Robertson has managed to accomplish.
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
This is my favorite thread in the world
Thank you, HydroTech.
I wish I had more time right now, but my thinking is I want one notch more aggressive for the U$C game. I agree we are only a bit below U$C talent-wise, not a massive underdog, so we don’t need to go crazy, but we have to step it up. U$C should be the game with the most trick plays in it all season, for example.
Furthermore, my issue with Tedford is definitely about predictability. He plays that predictable-baiting game that CaliforniaPete brings up, but I feel like he pays it too long – if you’re not making progress by the middle of the 2nd quarter, early 3rd quarter at the latest, you must change strategies, and I feel like I’ve seen him struggle to just ‘control the football and establish the running game’ well into the start of the 4th quarter, even when down by 2 touchdowns. Sorry, that’s too late to spring your ‘unpredictable’ side on U$C.
At least try some really crazy stuff 1 year out of 3 with U$C. I mean you want to keep them guessing at least a little bit. I think Tedford has earned the right to lose against U$C via some risk-taking without worrying about being fired. Never reaching your potential is the route to being fired slowly as a head coach. Boring….
This fan wants to see you try. And I think it would give us a better chance of winning more games, rather than being closer in average score every year while still losing each and every time.
Stand the whole game, stay to the end, and start yelling while they're still in the huddle. GO BEARS
by JerrottWillard45 on Apr 7, 2009 9:03 PM PDT reply actions
Great thoughts Willard. Perhaps JT does need to be more aggressive every few years, but then again I’m assuming that JT is doing what he thinks is the best way to maximize our chances at winning. If that means not being overly aggressive, then I’m willing to trust him and let him do his thing. It’s very easy for us to say he needs to be more aggressive when we’ve only beaten USC once in seven years, but then again I don’t know nearly enough about football to put together a gameplan to beat USC so I suppose that just shows how credible I am on the issue.
Anyways, I’m glad you liked the post but you should really thank Avinash. This was his idea and his baby. I think we have another post or two on this topic.
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
Execution
In the end it just comes down to offensive execution and minimizing mistakes; I think Tedford’s playcalling easily gives Cal the ability to win given the team executes. That just hasn’t happened against USC.
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I think it's telling
That absolutely no one voted that Tedford was being too aggressive in his play calls. Personally I feel like the playcalling in general hasn’t been to blame for the team’s losses to USC, but a lack of execution and having inferior personnel. After all, my second-most memorable play of the Tedford era (with the flea-flicker Tedford called for his very first play being number one) was Ayoob’s QB draw on 3rd and 12 in the first drive of USC 2005. You play the hand you’re dealt, and often it isn’t enough no matter how aggressive you want to be.
Still happy over the fact that the Nets signed Ryan Anderson. Now if only they can sign Leon Powe after this year...
Not sure the personnel issue applies to all the games
2005, sure, but
USC-Cal 2006…the Trojans probably had deeper talent in the receiving corps that led to the two 4th quarter scores. Our receivers were still a little green at that point. Those final fifteen minutes still give me nightmares.
USC-Cal 2007 was pretty much an even split. Talent was there, but I’d say both teams sputtered plenty. We just happened to sputter last.
USC-Cal 2008…USC had one TD that should not have counted. We overachieved and they underachieved.
by Avinash Kunnath on Apr 8, 2009 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree, except for 08
I don’t think we overachieved. the defense played to their potential against a good, but not great offense. our offense struggled due to misques of various kinds, against a very good defense.
Go Bears Go
Yep, you phrased the 2008 situation better.
by Avinash Kunnath on Apr 9, 2009 2:24 AM PDT up reply actions

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