Mock Draft Showdown 2009

As I referenced this past weekend in our NFL Draft Open Threads, I thought it might be fun to take a look at 16 mock drafts to see whose was the most accurate.  Obviously, it's near-impossible to forecast either which team is going to take which player or which slot a given player is going to go in because of trades, but it's interesting nonetheless.  These were the mocks that I took a look at, with the caveat that some of the results that I used were not their final projections leading into the draft.  I really should date these things next time.

ESPN SportsNation BloggersTodd McShay, Mel Kiper Jr., The Sporting NewsPeter KingDon BanksNFL.comNational Football Post (via Yahoo!)CBS Sportsline

Here is an Excel file comparing the mocks.

The results:

Number of mocks that had Darrius Heyward-Bey going seventh overall: 2 - Mike Lombardi and Chad Reuter of CBS Sportsline

Number of mocks that had Darrius Heyward-Bey not going anywhere in the first round: 2 - Peter King and Don Banks of SI.com

Number of drafts that projected Tyson Jackson third overall: 3 - Mel Kiper, Peter King, and Rob Rang.

Number of drafts that didn't project Tyson Jackson to be a first-rounder at all: 1 - by the Sporting News.

Number of players agreed to be first-round picks by all drafts: 14 - Matthew Stafford, Jason Smith, Aaron Curry, Eugene Monroe, Michael Crabtree, Mark Sanchez, Andre Smith, Brian Orakpo, B.J. Raji, Jeremy Maclin, Michael Oher, Malcolm Jenkins, Peria Jerry, Brandon Pettigrew

Most picks nailed by draft order:  10 - Rob Rang of NFL.com, including 7 of the first 8.

Fewest picks nailed: 2 - by the National Football Post and Mike Lombardi.

Most players correctly projected to be taken anywhere in the first round: 28 - Todd McShay, Pat Kirwan, and Clark Judge.

Fewest players correctly projected to be taken anywhere in the first round: 22 - by the Sporting News.

Drafts that nailed Michael Crabtree going to the Niners at 10: 2 - by Peter King and Don Banks.

Players that went higher than any projections: Larry English at 16 (highest projection of 24 by the Sporting News), Knowshon Moreno  at 12 (highest projection of 16 by Peter King, Don Banks, Rob Rang, Chad Reuter), Alex Mack (highest projection of 22 by Peter King), Eric Wood at 28 (highest projection of 32 by Rob Rang and Chad Reuter)

Players that went lower than any projections: Jeremy Maclin (lowest projection of 17 by Chad Reuter), Michael Oher (lowest projection of 22 by The Sporting News)

Highest average projection by a player not taken in the first round: Everette Brown, including a high of 9 by Jamie Dukes (closely followed by Rey Maualuga with a high of 10 by the Sporting News)

Smallest overall variance: Clark Judge

Largest overall variance: The Sporting News

Anything else you find interesting based on the file I put together?  Put it in the comments below!

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