Mock Draft Showdown 2009

by yellow fever on Apr 27, 2009 6:53 AM PDT in California Golden Bears Football

As I referenced this past weekend in our NFL Draft Open Threads, I thought it might be fun to take a look at 16 mock drafts to see whose was the most accurate. Obviously, it's near-impossible to forecast either which team is going to take which player or which slot a given player is going to go in because of trades, but it's interesting nonetheless. These were the mocks that I took a look at, with the caveat that some of the results that I used were not their final projections leading into the draft. I really should date these things next time.

ESPN SportsNation Bloggers , Todd McShay , Mel Kiper Jr., The Sporting News , Peter King , Don Banks , NFL.com , National Football Post (via Yahoo!), CBS Sportsline

Here is an Excel file comparing the mocks.

The results:

Number of mocks that had Darrius Heyward-Bey going seventh overall: 2 - Mike Lombardi and Chad Reuter of CBS Sportsline

Number of mocks that had Darrius Heyward-Bey not going anywhere in the first round: 2 - Peter King and Don Banks of SI.com

Number of drafts that projected Tyson Jackson third overall: 3 - Mel Kiper, Peter King, and Rob Rang.

Number of drafts that didn't project Tyson Jackson to be a first-rounder at all: 1 - by the Sporting News.

Number of players agreed to be first-round picks by all drafts: 14 - Matthew Stafford, Jason Smith, Aaron Curry, Eugene Monroe, Michael Crabtree, Mark Sanchez, Andre Smith, Brian Orakpo, B.J. Raji, Jeremy Maclin, Michael Oher, Malcolm Jenkins, Peria Jerry, Brandon Pettigrew

Most picks nailed by draft order: 10 - Rob Rang of NFL.com, including 7 of the first 8.

Fewest picks nailed: 2 - by the National Football Post and Mike Lombardi.

Most players correctly projected to be taken anywhere in the first round: 28 - Todd McShay, Pat Kirwan, and Clark Judge.

Fewest players correctly projected to be taken anywhere in the first round: 22 - by the Sporting News.

Drafts that nailed Michael Crabtree going to the Niners at 10: 2 - by Peter King and Don Banks.

Players that went higher than any projections: Larry English at 16 (highest projection of 24 by the Sporting News), Knowshon Moreno at 12 (highest projection of 16 by Peter King, Don Banks, Rob Rang, Chad Reuter), Alex Mack (highest projection of 22 by Peter King), Eric Wood at 28 (highest projection of 32 by Rob Rang and Chad Reuter)

Players that went lower than any projections: Jeremy Maclin (lowest projection of 17 by Chad Reuter), Michael Oher (lowest projection of 22 by The Sporting News)

Highest average projection by a player not taken in the first round: Everette Brown, including a high of 9 by Jamie Dukes (closely followed by Rey Maualuga with a high of 10 by the Sporting News)

Smallest overall variance: Clark Judge

Largest overall variance: The Sporting News

Anything else you find interesting based on the file I put together? Put it in the comments below!

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Comments

Instead of looking at just the first and the worst… perhaps we should look at the overall ranking by score:

1 Judge
2 King
3 Kiper
4 Kirwan
5 Davis
6 McShay
7 ESPN
8 Prisco
9 Reuter
10 Wyche
11 Dukes
12 Rang
13 Banks
14 NFP
15 Lombardi
16 TSN

….interesting tidbit… if your name starts with the letter “K”… you’re more likely to guess the picks correctly. This is scientific proof!

Jokes aside, Kiper still knows his stuff and he’s > than McShay. btw, did Mayock do a mock?

by danzig on Apr 27, 2009 7:08 AM PDT reply actions

I think he did, although I forgot to grab it when I went around looking for them. I heard he did fairly well.

Still happy over the fact that the Nets signed Ryan Anderson. Now if only they can sign Leon Powe after this year...

by yellow fever on Apr 27, 2009 7:20 AM PDT up reply actions

You know your way around a spreadsheet… filters, grouping, conditional formatting, blah, blah. What industry would you say you were in feva?

by danzig on Apr 27, 2009 7:26 AM PDT up reply actions

Financial services, as vague as that is. More specifically I work for one of the big 4 accounting firms.

Still happy over the fact that the Nets signed Ryan Anderson. Now if only they can sign Leon Powe after this year...

by yellow fever on Apr 27, 2009 7:42 AM PDT up reply actions

I did a mock draft of the first round. I correctly guessed six picks and of those six picks, I guessed five of those teams right as I had Mark Sanchez going to the Redskins instead of the Jets at number five.

The Ultimate Opportunist

by Rated-R Superstar on Apr 27, 2009 4:28 PM PDT reply actions

I think the key to these mock drafts is thinking like the teams. If you put yourself as the team’s GM, then you’re putting your thoughts into the team’s draft strategy. That is incorrect. To be the most accurate, you have to think as the head coach and GM of that particular team does. For example, those draft predictors that picked Heyward-Bey going to the Raiders probably put on their Al Davis thinking cap.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by HydroTech on Apr 28, 2009 2:51 AM PDT reply actions

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