Inside The Numbers:  UConn Women's Team

Mulder.  Hudson.  Zito.  The Big 3!  At one time, in this emotionally adolescent boys' mind, they were The Big 3.  Well, apparently now there is a new Big 3.  Bigger than that Big 3.  Moore, Charles, and Montgomery.   I predict any one of them could pitch better than Mulder, Hudson, and Zito combined this season.  All they'd have to do is pitch better than Barry Zito and, sad to say, that is some low hanging fruit right there.

Tina Charles, listed at Center, is a sensational player.

Tina Charles via grfx.cstv.com

Rene Montgomery, listed at Guard, is one of the best players in the nation.

Renee Montgomery via grfx.cstv.com

But perhaps their best player is Maya Moore, listed at forward.

Maya Moore via grfx.cstv.com

After the fold, we take a look at this team and see what chance Cal stands against them.

All numbers are from here.

TEAM STATISTICS                  UCONN          OPP
---------------------------------------------------
SCORING..................         2955         1849
  Points per game........         84.4         52.8
  Scoring margin.........        +31.6            -
FIELD GOALS-ATT..........    1101-2155     687-2075
  Field goal pct.........         .511         .331
3 POINT FG-ATT...........      253-689      198-663
  3-point FG pct.........         .367         .299
  3-pt FG made per game..          7.2          5.7
FREE THROWS-ATT..........      500-697      277-419
  Free throw pct.........         .717         .661
  F-Throws made per game.         14.3          7.9
REBOUNDS.................         1502         1112
  Rebounds per game......         42.9         31.8
  Rebounding margin......        +11.1            -
ASSISTS..................          705          338
  Assists per game.......         20.1          9.7
TURNOVERS................          484          637
  Turnovers per game.....         13.8         18.2
  Turnover margin........         +4.4            -
  Assist/turnover ratio..          1.5          0.5
STEALS...................          306          224
  Steals per game........          8.7          6.4
BLOCKS...................          173           78
  Blocks per game........          4.9          2.2
WINNING STREAK...........           35            -
  Home win streak........           15            -
ATTENDANCE...............       164911        86504
  Home games-Avg/Game....     15-10994      11-4409
  Neutral site-Avg/Game..            -       9-4223

SCORE BY PERIODS:                1st  2nd    Total
------------------------------  ---- ----     ----
Connecticut...................  1574 1381  -  2955
Opponents.....................   866  983  -  1849

Jesus Christo, this team is good.  Gabby Hayes good!  31.6 scoring margin!  Shooting over .500!  Cal, by comparison, is shooting .443 on the year.  Maybe a negative is that UConn is shooting 3s at a rate only about .20 higher than Cal.  That's about the best negative you can get here.  Le sigh!

They have over double the assists of their opponents.  Ai!  Honestly, these numbers speak for themselves.  You don't need me to tease anything out or focus on anything.

POINTS                G  Pts  Pts/G             SCORING AVERAGE       G  Pts Avg/G
-----------------------------------             ----------------------------------
Moore, Maya......... 35  665   19.0             Moore, Maya......... 35  665  19.0
Charles, Tina....... 35  586   16.7             Charles, Tina....... 35  586  16.7
Montgomery, Renee... 35  565   16.1             Montgomery, Renee... 35  565  16.1
Greene, Kalana...... 35  302    8.6             Doty, Caroline...... 17  147   8.6
Hayes, Tiffany...... 35  277    7.9             Greene, Kalana...... 35  302   8.6
McLaren, Kaili...... 34  152    4.5             Hayes, Tiffany...... 35  277   7.9
Doty, Caroline...... 17  147    8.6             McLaren, Kaili...... 34  152   4.5
Williams, Tahirah... 29   88    3.0             Williams, Tahirah... 29   88   3.0
Dixon, Lorin........ 35   87    2.5             Dixon, Lorin........ 35   87   2.5
Gardler, Meghan..... 28   58    2.1             Gardler, Meghan..... 28   58   2.1
Fernandes, Jacquie.. 26   23    0.9             Fernandes, Jacquie.. 26   23   0.9
Kerns, Cassie....... 15    5    0.3             Kerns, Cassie....... 15    5   0.3

As noted previously, UConn has its Big 3, Moore, Charles, and Montgomery.  Nobody else comes close in point scoring.  The worst of the 3 scores 16 a game.  Cal only has 1 player score more than 13 a game and that's superstud Ashley Walker.  UConn has 3.  The document speaks for itself.

FG PERCENTAGE         FG ATT   Pct              FIELD GOAL ATTEMPTS   G  Att  Att/G
----------------------------------              -----------------------------------
Charles, Tina....... 236 382  .618              Moore, Maya......... 35  483   13.8
Greene, Kalana...... 125 211  .592              Montgomery, Renee... 35  436   12.5
McLaren, Kaili......  59 104  .567              Charles, Tina....... 35  382   10.9
Williams, Tahirah...  33  60  .550              Hayes, Tiffany...... 35  213    6.1
Moore, Maya......... 254 483  .526              Greene, Kalana...... 35  211    6.0
Doty, Caroline......  52 116  .448
Montgomery, Renee... 194 436  .445              FIELD GOALS MADE      G Made Made/G
Hayes, Tiffany......  92 213  .432              -----------------------------------
Gardler, Meghan.....  19  47  .404              Moore, Maya......... 35  254    7.3
Dixon, Lorin........  27  71  .380              Charles, Tina....... 35  236    6.7
Fernandes, Jacquie..   8  23  .348              Montgomery, Renee... 35  194    5.5
Kerns, Cassie.......   2   9  .222              Greene, Kalana...... 35  125    3.6
                                                Hayes, Tiffany...... 35   92    2.6

That .618 FG% by Tina Charles is toads re-dick.  I mean this whole team is toads re-dick!  Again, compare it to Cal's numbers (available here).  Cal has 2 players shooting over .431 (Walker; Hampton).  It's shorter to count UConn's players shooting under that number.  They have 4.  So, UConn has 8 players compared to Cal's 2.  Not good!  And, of course, their Big 3 shoot the most buckets.

3-POINT PERCENTAGE   3FG ATT   Pct              3-POINT FG ATTEMPTS   G  Att  Att/G
----------------------------------              -----------------------------------
Doty, Caroline......  30  75  .400              Montgomery, Renee... 35  238    6.8
Moore, Maya.........  80 201  .398              Moore, Maya......... 35  201    5.7
Montgomery, Renee...  92 238  .387              Hayes, Tiffany...... 35  107    3.1
Fernandes, Jacquie..   3   8  .375              Doty, Caroline...... 17   75    4.4
Hayes, Tiffany......  35 107  .327              Greene, Kalana...... 35   30    0.9
Gardler, Meghan.....   5  16  .313
Greene, Kalana......   6  30  .200              3-POINT FGS MADE      G Made Made/G
Dixon, Lorin........   2  12  .167              -----------------------------------
McLaren, Kaili......   0   1  .000              Montgomery, Renee... 35   92    2.6
Williams, Tahirah...   0   1  .000              Moore, Maya......... 35   80    2.3
                                                Hayes, Tiffany...... 35   35    1.0
                                                Doty, Caroline...... 17   30    1.8
                                                Greene, Kalana...... 35    6    0.2

As noted previously, the one place where they don't completely and totally out-class Cal is at the 3.  Tina Charles hasn't even attempted one.  And Moore's .390 and Montgomery's .387 are comparable to the 4 or 5 or so Cal players shooting around that mark.  So, if there's one opportunity here it's for Cal to out shoot UConn at the 3.  By the numbers, we have comparable or even better 3 shooters.  And if UConn is forced to go for 3s, it takes one of their Big 3 out of the game partially.  A man can dream, right?

FT PERCENTAGE         FT ATT   Pct              FREE THROW ATTEMPTS   G  Att  Att/G
----------------------------------              -----------------------------------
Doty, Caroline......  13  15  .867              Charles, Tina....... 35  169    4.8
Hayes, Tiffany......  58  75  .773              Montgomery, Renee... 35  112    3.2
Greene, Kalana......  46  60  .767              Moore, Maya......... 35  102    2.9
Montgomery, Renee...  85 112  .759              Hayes, Tiffany...... 35   75    2.1
Moore, Maya.........  77 102  .755              Greene, Kalana...... 35   60    1.7
Williams, Tahirah...  22  30  .733
McLaren, Kaili......  34  47  .723              FREE THROWS MADE      G Made Made/G
Charles, Tina....... 114 169  .675              -----------------------------------
Dixon, Lorin........  31  48  .646              Charles, Tina....... 35  114    3.3
Gardler, Meghan.....  15  27  .556              Montgomery, Renee... 35   85    2.4
Fernandes, Jacquie..   4   8  .500              Moore, Maya......... 35   77    2.2
Kerns, Cassie.......   1   4  .250              Hayes, Tiffany...... 35   58    1.7
                                                Greene, Kalana...... 35   46    1.3

Actually, I take that back.  The numbers here with free throws are comparable to ours.  Tina Charles, their big inside threat, has only 1 fewer FT than Walker, our big inside threat.  But Walker shoots at a much better rate.  Montgomery and Moore compare almost evenly with Grey-Lawson and Hampton, but the UConn people do shoot a lot better there.  So, it evens out.  This isn't as big an opportunity as with the 3s, but it's also not a place where UConn is destroying Cal statistically.

REBOUNDS              G  Reb  Reb/G             ASSISTS               G  No.    A/G
-----------------------------------             -----------------------------------
Moore, Maya......... 35  317    9.1             Montgomery, Renee... 35  182    5.2
Charles, Tina....... 35  296    8.5             Moore, Maya......... 35  118    3.4
Greene, Kalana...... 35  157    4.5             Hayes, Tiffany...... 35   87    2.5
Hayes, Tiffany...... 35  146    4.2             McLaren, Kaili...... 34   70    2.1
McLaren, Kaili...... 34  114    3.4             Dixon, Lorin........ 35   68    1.9

REBOUND AVERAGE       G  Reb  Avg/G             STEALS                G  No.    S/G
-----------------------------------             -----------------------------------
Moore, Maya......... 35  317    9.1             Moore, Maya......... 35   71    2.0
Charles, Tina....... 35  296    8.5             Montgomery, Renee... 35   52    1.5
Greene, Kalana...... 35  157    4.5             Hayes, Tiffany...... 35   39    1.1
Hayes, Tiffany...... 35  146    4.2             Greene, Kalana...... 35   34    1.0
McLaren, Kaili...... 34  114    3.4             Charles, Tina....... 35   33    0.9
Doty, Caroline...... 17   57    3.4

Tina Charles at 8.5 averages .2 boards fewer than Walker a game.  And she's their #2!  Moore is even better!  UConn has 4 players who average over 4 boards a game.  Cal has 2 (although, in the interest of fairness, Grey-Lawson averages 3.9).

The numbers are the same with assists.  Cal's highest assister is Vital, who has 108 on the year and averages about 3.3.  Even though UConn has played 2 more games than Cal, they still have 2 players who average more assists per game than Vital!

Final Thoughts:

Much had been made about how good UConn is.  But it is not until you actually look at the numbers, that you see just how amazing they are.  In specific, points scored, which is, in some interesting way, one of the metrics by which competitive sporting events are marked.  When a team is undefeated.  And they win, on average, by over 30 points.  ON AVERAGE!  They are a good team.  When they have multiple players playing around the point of your best player (who is REALLY REALLY REALLY REALLY good herself).  They are a good team.

This is a good team.  This is David.  We are Goliath.  Or, wait, do I have that one backwards?  I always forget my old mythology.  I'm pretty sure UConn is the face that launched a thousand ships.  Will we be squashed?  Or will we slingshot our way into the record books?  If you had to ask me, which you in no way did, I'd say we get squashed.  Cal is a great team and Cal had a great season!  No denying that.  But this UConn team is just too amazing.

There's a chance that Cal will shoot some 3s, get a lead, force UConn to hit their 3s, take Charles off her game and win.  There's also a chance I climb Mount Everest.  Naked.  With CBKWit going piggy-back the entire time.  Also naked.  So, you never know. 

The fact of the matter is that UConn is the overwhelming favorite to win it all.  And even if Cal was wildly successful otherwise, at some point, be it in the 16, 8, 4, or even 2 points of this Tourney, we'd have to face them.  And most likely lose.  Unless we win, in which case, CBKWit strip down, because we are going hiking!

It sucks that we have to face UConn in the 16 as compared to 8, 4, or 2.  But that doesn't change that Cal had an amazing season, an amazing run, and have a lot to build for next year.

As for this year, hope you enjoyed the Virginia game, because unless something outstanding happens, we are going to get crushed on Sunday and it's not going to be funny.  Unless it's all sped up and Yakety Sax is played at the same time.  Because that'd make it kind of funny.

But hey, at least I saved 15% for switching to Geico for all my insurance needs!  GO BEARS!