Is SC a "must win" game?
by SoCal Oski on Feb 24, 2009 8:30 AM PST
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The short answer, I think, is yes.
Of course, there is a pretty important assumption that goes into this:
- We lose to Ucla, ASU, and Zona
And it seems to me that's not an out-of-possibility assumption.
But back to the point, beating SC should ensure an NCAA tourney bid by giving us that magical 20th win and guaranteeing a top-half of the conference finish. .
Losing to SC puts us in danger of sliding out of the top five, and even with a strong RPI and solid conference wins against Zona, ASU, and Washington twice, the NCAA committee likely won't look kindly on a five-game slide and #6 finish (see: assumption).
Now naturally, Cal has a better than puncher's chance against Ucla, Zona, and ASU but out of the four, SC seems like the best chance to get win 20.
So, is it doable? Oh yeah. The first game in LA was close, and it seems we match up pretty well against the Trojans. And, considering their team right now is showing some big cracks and there's evidence of internal discord, it seems as if they may not be strong enough to pull out a big win on the road. Add to that our strong play at home, and the odds are with us. But then again, SC isn't a pushover, and the Bears have shown a tendency to sometimes have a prolonged streak of ineffective play (for lack of a better term).
All in all, Thursday will be a big day for this team. A win gets them into the tournament and makes this one of the most surprising and over-achieving seasons in Cal hoops in a long long time. A loss, and we may have to settle for another trip to the NIT hell.
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It's not a "must win" but it certainly would be a very good idea to win it
Pulling out my pocket calculator, KenPom.com’s predictions currently give the Bears about a 9% chance of losing all their remaining games (which would put them in major bubble trouble). Losing to USC would bump those odds up to 29%.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Couple things
1) We already have 20 wins. We’re sitting at 20-7, 9-5 in conference.
2) I disagree that we match up well with SC. I actually think it’s one of our worst match ups in conference, because SC has superior athleticism on the perimeter to stifle our shooters and a very physical presence inside to exploit our lack of front court depth.
3) That said, the game in LA was close and if a couple of breaks had gone the other way, we would have been right there. This is definitely a game we can win in Berkeley.
4) I’m not sure if it’s a “must” win. I agree that we need at least 1 more win, and a win over SC basically ensures us an NCAA berth over them. They would finish with a min of 8 losses, us a max of 8 losses, we split the series and have better conference and non conference wins. We get in.
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Heres anothe question. If we do lose these next 4 games, how deep into the Pac10 Tourney do we have to go to essentially make up for it?
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We cannot lose in the first round. That’s for sure. But if we win that first game, we’ve got 21 wins and strong nonconference wins. A lot of the bubble teams this year can’t say any of that.
I think we’re going to win a game in AZ. Just a gut feeling. I’m thinking ASU for some reason.
You ain't got it like Marshawn got it
by Thoroughbred on Feb 24, 2009 9:30 AM PST up reply actions
i really really really want to win in Tucson
mostly because i’ve never seen it happen. Arizona was the one place the Braun never(!) won, losing all 12 games there.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
I see no reason why we can’t play just as well as we did in Berkeley. All the AZ fans have already discounted us. They better hope the teams don’t. I don’t think Glasser can guard Randle… like Game #1
You ain't got it like Marshawn got it
by Thoroughbred on Feb 24, 2009 11:24 AM PST up reply actions
Well, we might play as well, but I’m almost positive Arizona will play better. They’re a much improved team from when we faced them back on January 2nd.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
That’s why I see a win vs. ASU
You ain't got it like Marshawn got it
by Thoroughbred on Feb 24, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions
Given the state of the bubble, I think 1 win still gets the job done
The bad news is that that 1 win is probably against UCLA.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
The title of this post is actually a good test to see if you're football-centric
I’ve totally gotten into basketball this year and have been enjoying it tons, but I still thought about the football team first and foremost.
I actually never followed CAL basketball at all and now I actually know players and schedules and tourny possibilities, maybe it’s because we’re winning (LoL) but yeah, I can’t wait until the Bears take the field. I’d say I’m 80/20 right now.
by CaliforniaCMB on Feb 24, 2009 9:21 PM PST up reply actions
Back when I was in school
Cal was a basketball school, first and foremost. After Illinois destroyed us in football to open the 2001 season (44-17), my (and a lot of other people’s) first thought was “when does basketball season start?”
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
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| Fresno St. | Sat 09/03 | W 36 - 21 |
@
Colorado
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| Presbyterian | Sat 09/17 | W 63 - 12 |
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@
Washington
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Sat 09/24 | L 23 - 31 |
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@
Oregon
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Thu 10/06 | L 15 - 43 |
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USC
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Thu 10/13 | L 9 - 30 |
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Utah
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Sat 10/22 | W 34 - 10 |
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UCLA
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Sat 10/29 | L 14 - 31 |
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Washington St.
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Sat 11/05 | W 30 - 7 |
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Oregon St.
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Sat 11/12 | W 23 - 6 |
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@
Stanford
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Sat 11/19 | L 28 - 31 |
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@
Arizona St.
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Fri 11/25 | W 47 - 38 |
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@
Texas
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Wed 12/28 | L 10 - 21 |
Pacific-12 Conference Standings
(updated 1.2.2012 at 11:12 PM PST)
| North | Conf | Overall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | W | L | |
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Oregon Ducks
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8 | 1 | 12 | 2 |
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Stanford Cardinal
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8 | 1 | 11 | 2 |
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Washington Huskies
|
5 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
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California Golden Bears
|
4 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
|
Oregon St. Beavers
|
3 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
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Washington St. Cougars
|
2 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
| South | Conf | Overall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | W | L | |
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USC Trojans
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7 | 2 | 10 | 2 |
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UCLA Bruins
|
5 | 4 | 6 | 8 |
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Utah Utes
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4 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
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Arizona St. Sun Devils
|
4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
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Arizona Wildcats
|
2 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
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Colorado Buffaloes
|
2 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
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