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Some statistical Solarcaine

Ed's note: I was too distraught to write up a recap yesterday, and PaulThomas said almost everything I was going to say in the following post.  Monty agrees with Paul and me; here's a quote from the CoCo Times:

"They shoot 70 percent in the second half and we shoot 27 (percent). I think that's the tale of the game. It's no more complex than that."

Cal now needs to win AT LEAST one more regular season game, and Thursday night's game against USC seems like the time to do it.  Hopefully we will not look back on a season sweep to 7th place OSU as the reason we were kept out of the tournament.  - CBKWit

People do still use that for sunburns, right?

 

I couldn't help but look at the stats from today's game, because I didn't feel like the Bears had played all that badly. And, turns out, they didn't.

 

Let's toss out the two ridiculous Randle heaves at the end of the game (although he's capable of hitting those). Other than those two shots, Cal took 50 shots in the game and made 17 of them. On the season, Cal's shooting percentage is very near 50%-- but let's call it 48% for ease of handling. That means Cal should have made 24 shots.

 

On the season the team's 3 point percentage is (now-- it dropped 1.7% just from this game alone) 44.1%. The Bears took 18 3s. Basically, they should have made 8 of them; in fact, they made 3.

 

Add up those missing points and on a normal shooting day, Cal wins this one easily, 73-65. I suppose you could dock Cal a few points for making more free throws than average, but Oregon State got a bundle of easy points off end-of-game FTs too.

 

Now, I know you can't just get up and say bad shooting = bad luck. But come on. You'd have a hard time arguing that the quality of looks the Bears got today was worse than average. Oregon State's defense was porous at best and Cal was regularly getting wide-open 3s. I'm not even going near the officiating, Oregon State's own shooting (highlighted by four second-half plays which would put any baller 80% of the way to winning a HORSE game) or anything else the team couldn't control. If Cal does what it normally does, HORSE shots or no, Oregon State goes down.

 

I hope Montgomery's message to his team was that sometimes these things just happen. The worst thing that could happen is for the Bears to overthink things. This isn't a game they need to explain away (unlike the first one). It just-- happened. One presumes Ben Howland is busy telling his team the same thing-- sometimes Taylor Rochestie scores 33 points. Accept it and move on.

The opinions expressed in a FanPost are, in every way, reflective of the opinions of every California Golden Blogs Marshawnthusiast. Moreover, they are reflective of every employee of SBNation, including Tyler "Blez" Bleszinski.

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Sometimes Taylor Rochestie scores 33 points. Accept it and move on.

This should, like, replace E Pluribus Unum on our money or something…

I'm Fijian. Yes, the water is like that.

by Spazzy Mcgee on Feb 21, 2009 11:54 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

You summed up what I saw too

You ain't got it like Marshawn got it

by Thoroughbred on Feb 22, 2009 12:10 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

It seems to me that those pesky Beavers just have our numbers this year. Call it luck, kismet, karma, or the Obama magic rolling over Berkeley, but it just seems that way.

It’s tough losing games like this, and in the end, all you can really do is just shake your head and wonder if you need a priest for an exorcism, or to burn some sage.

Of course, now the fun starts … hosting the LA schools and then a dreadful roadie into the desert. Time to suck it up and get to work.

Yeah, well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by SoCal Oski on Feb 22, 2009 9:20 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

OSU’s defense is really tactically interesting to watch. By extending all those players into traps at the extended elbow (wing), it would seem there should be tons of available space to exploit. And at times teams do beat them by penetrating under and hitting the opposite wing cutting baseline (a la Christopher for the dunk).

However, all too often, teams are lulled into making the easy pass back and forth across the top (see Cal’s first game), which accomplishes nothing. Or, when they DO penetrate to the free throw line, they panic into a turnover or bad shot as they are surrounded by 5 players (witness other OSU games).

To your point, I think the reason why Cal shot such a low percentage tonight is because the defense doesn’t give them the normal looks that a player expects. Possessions are slowed down, the entire shot clock is used, and Cal looked tentative in its shot selection, like, “should I be shooting now or not?” As I mentioned earlier, Theo looked tentative, passing up at least 2 open 3’s that have his name all over them.

Monty did a better job in preparing the team for this. We did a better job initiating the O this game = more penetration = more cross court passes = less back and forth across the top passes that waste time and risk turnovers. However, by virtue of the fact that Randle sat and Guttierez played, he didn’t get his message thru, he didn’t prepare Randle for the task at hand. Randle still doesn’t know how to break that D. The announcer’s comment that Guttierez has better size to break that D…I don’t buy for a second. Yes, size always helps, but Randle can do better. Back to the classroom. And, oh, in the race for Pac-10 coach of the year? Robinson just knocked Monty out of the running.

For the record, I previously ridiculed OSU’s offense as that of a “high school team”. That was a long time ago (uncreative and sorry execution down stretch vs. WSU). I’m still not a big fan of their O, but they’ve gotten better. I (mostly) retract my prior criticism.

You are correct, Paul, that a few falling shots would have made the difference. I’m suggesting that OSU is designed to lull teams to sleep, out of their groove, and the result is poor shot selection, uncertainty, lack of fluidity, and ultimately MISSES. If you can’t get into your comfortable state, it’s like stepping off the bench and being asked to immediately hit your first shot. I don’t understand why we can’t get a better groove going against OSU. That’s why I say they are interesting to watch.

by concordtom on Feb 22, 2009 10:15 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

So your theory is, they give you wide-open looks to trap you into taking only good shots?

Yeah, I’m not such a fan of that theory.

What killed Cal the first game was turning the ball over constantly and giving up easy points on the other end. That didn’t happen in this game. Cal, I believe, attempted more shots than OSU did.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 22, 2009 11:46 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

PT

just took a nuanced position, removed the nuance, then ridiculed it…

The argument is that trapping 1-3-1 zones disrupt rhythm, thereby causing rattled players to miss shots they might normally make.

Since this is the textbook definition of what 1-3-1’s are supposed to do, it’s not a bad theory to say that’s what happened.

1-3-1’s cause turnovers and force off-balance shots. The trap comes quickly, which encourages the offense to do everything quickly. Trying to do things quickly = rushed shots = missed shots. Even open shots are tougher if you think the defensive rotation will be there in less than a second, and you rush to get the shot off.

by ohmangoAs on Feb 22, 2009 2:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I've seen good 1-3-1 zone teams (the Pittsnogle WVA team that went to the Elite 8 comes to mind)

and, sir, that was no good 1-3-1 zone. I’m sure there were a few plays where the Bears took bad shots— Christopher bricked a 3 early in the game which he didn’t have to, for instance— but by and large they were taking squared away shots with good technique (and the right players were taking them).

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 22, 2009 5:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll agree it wasn't the greatest 1-3-1

but if you want an explanation for poor shooting, it’s a reasonable option. Also, I don’t know that there were that many squared-up threes…although, I doubt we can resolve this issue without game-tape, so I’ll let that one go.

by ohmangoAs on Feb 22, 2009 9:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Thank you for coming to my defense

Since it’s been a couple decades since I had to deal with such things, I went to google and typed in “how to beat a 1-3-1 zone” and up came:
http://www.ehow.com/how_2066768_beat-131-zone-defense-basketball.html
point #3 says:

“Attack the primary weakness of a 1-3-1 zone defense which is the baseline on the weak side. There is typically only one player assigned to cover the weak side of the zone. By sneaking a player around the weak side along the baseline it is possible to get an easy pass inside for a lay up.”

This was the alley to Christopher I mentioned. Perhaps we didn’t get enough of this action.

Point #4 says:
“Defending the post is also another weakness of the 1-3-1 defense. When the offense can get the ball to a post player on the block the only primary defender is the player running the baseline. This can be a mismatch as the runner will typically be a small forward or power forward.”

This one makes me think of how our tallest player is only 6’8" (without Wilkes), and highlights of back to back swats on Boykin flash through my head. If we can’t beat a 1-3-1 with power down low against the “1”, then I guess OSU really does have the upper hand.

As good as the rest of our team is, this lack of height at the center position is going to be the #1 limiting factor next season.

I believe that a good offensive team can force ANY team to abandon its defensive strategy if it out executes. All defenses can be beat. For instance, an offensively strong inside team will be defended by a 2-3 zone. Pack it in, until the O starts knocking down the outside shot. Then you typically go back to a man to man.

If Monty could get his kids to crush the 1-3-1, then Robinson would be forced to implement a different defensive strategy. Otherwise, he’s just going to sit and say, Prove It.

Monty will have his opportunity to “prove it” next season. And this is what a coach lives for, right? His challenge is now set before him, and he’ll be thinking all off-season how the hell he’s going to break that zone and force Craig into using a different posture. This is what makes coaching fun – the strategy behind the scenes.

Yes, PT, there are days when the shots simply aren’t falling, and all you have to do is shake the other guy’s hand. Yesterday was not one of those days. No way am I chalking that loss up to “Well, we missed our shots, what’s a fellow to do?”

by concordtom on Feb 22, 2009 5:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know

there were so many wide open threes that we just missed. That hasn’t happened very much this year, and hopefully it doesn’t happen again.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by CBKWit on Feb 22, 2009 6:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Had Cal made its open 3s, Oregon State would have had to shift defenses

As it was, they never did because they never had to. That doesn’t mean the defense was “working,” because it wasn’t. They never changed their strategy because it didn’t occur to them that their “success” on defense was just luck. (And maybe because they knew that any of the alternatives were even worse. Though I’m not sure I really believe that.)

Some people hate poker analogies, but, eh: this game was the equivalent of playing against a really loose caller in a poker game. 60% of the time or so, the Bears had the better hand when they put money in the pot… but Oregon State lucked out and beat them on a whole bunch of those hands. They never stopped making the loose calls because the game didn’t punish them for it on this occasion.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 22, 2009 10:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think concord Tom is partially right

it’s a funky defense, and the beavs play it pretty well. But as Monty said,

“They shoot 70 percent in the second half and we shoot 27 (percent). I think that’s the tale of the game. It’s no more complex than that.”

I have to agree with him.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by CBKWit on Feb 23, 2009 12:12 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

A few more thoughts

We were running away with this game after Jorge took over the point in the first half (and made somebeautiful passes). We were up by 11, in the midst of a 21-4 run, when Jorge turned the ball over on a 3 to 1 odd man rush. We got the ball back, but on the next possession he turned it over again. OSU scored the last 4 points of the half to close the deficit to 7. I remember thinking at the time, I hope this failure to run out to a 15 point lead does not wind up being the turning point of the game. We did score 5 quick points to open the second half, but aside from this little spurt, it was all downhill after Jorge turned the ball over at the end of the 1st half.

I will also second PaulThomas’ point about quality shot selection. I felt we were getting the looks we wanted (namely wide open threes) and simply couldn’t hit them at a normal clip, much less the high percentage we usually hit. Theo egregiously passed up a wide open three from the left corner in the first half, but by and large I felt like we were getting and taking high quality shots. Some days they simply do not go down (despite, in many cases, the ball being halfway down the cylinder), and yesterday was clearly one of those days.

On the other hand, I felt like we were defending OSU fairly well. Haynes in particular hit some ridiculously difficult shots, especially at the end of the second half. He is hitting fall-away jumpers with a hand in his face, and Theo and Christopher are missing wide open threes – not much you can do about it.

Stat of the game – OSU forward Daniel Deane raised his season three point shooting to a whopping 29.8% (he was at 27.7% before) after hitting 2 of 3 yesterday. Randle, Christopher, and Robertson were a combined 3 of 16.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by CBKWit on Feb 22, 2009 12:53 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

As good of a three point shooting team as Cal is, they don’t actually attempt a lot of them. When they are forced to shoot a lot of threes, their percentage goes down. Is that perception reality? And, is the reason Cal’s percentage is so high a matter of talent or merely shot selection?

It'll be just you, me, and Peter Nincompoop.

by BeastMode on Feb 22, 2009 2:32 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

you bring up some good points

but the simple truth is, Cal leads the nation in three point shooting percentage and they had a ton of wiiiiide open looks. They missed most of them and we lost.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by CBKWit on Feb 22, 2009 2:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, I totally agree, they should knock down open looks. I was more thinking about last season compared to this season, not just this one game. i wasn’t exactly clear.

It'll be just you, me, and Peter Nincompoop.

by BeastMode on Feb 22, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It's an axiom of basketball that anytime you're forced to do a lot of anything, the percentage will go down

and sometimes it can be just as effective to force a team to overplay its strengths as to try to take away those strengths.

That being said… you’d have a hard time arguing that Cal was being forced into taking 3s. The offense was naturally going to have to be more perimeter oriented without Wilkes around, because the team without him had no frontcourt depth. But I thought both Boykin and Kamp were pretty involved in the offense.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 22, 2009 5:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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