Civil War 4th Down Decision Making
by Avinash on Dec 4, 2009 5:10 AM PST
14 comments
Man, it seems like our 4th down discussion (concerning Tedford punting and Harbaugh going for it) has a Part II. A lot of interesting scenarios popped up in yesterday's Oregon-Oregon State game, and I want to go over all of them.
1) Oregon State, 1st quarter, 4th and goal, 1 yard line, opening drive after the Masoli pick. I like this call--if you're a Rose Bowl caliber team, you can get that yard riding with Quizz.
(It was converted)
2) Oregon, 3rd quarter, 4th and 6, Oregon State 35, 7 and a half left, Ducks down 9. Tough one. Canfield at this point in the game was looking unstoppable tearing apart Oregon's defense, so you factor that one in. A 52 yard field goal is really tough, so you'd expect either a punt, going for it, or giving the ball to the Beavers at their own 35. I like this call too--how many touchbacks do we see in this situation?
(It was converted)
3) Oregon State, 4th quarter, 4th and 15, Oregon 27, 6:16 left, Beavers down 4. Didn't really agree with this one; even though you're on the road, I go for 3 points--the odds of converting a 4th and 15 are sooo long. A missed field goal doesn't really hurt you, and Kahut had been hitting from that range.
(It was not converted)
4) Oregon, 4th quarter, 4th and 3, Oregon State 33, 3:29 left, Ducks up 4. Similar field position as (2), similar down and distance as (2), so I like the decision to go here. 3 yards should be cake for Oregon's offense.
(It was converted)
5) Oregon, 4th quarter, 4th and 2, Oregon State 19, 1:43 left, Ducks up 4. Boy...a field goal and you're sure not to lose in overtime, a first down and you're going to the Rose Bowl. That's way too enticing to pass up isn't it? I guess extra incentive to go for it comes from the fact that Canfield's already led one end-of-the-half 2 minute drive, and you don't want to deal with that again. If you don't get it Canfield still has to go 80 yards regardless.
Still, I probably kick the field goal. I'm guessing Tedford does too.
(It was converted)
So I agreed with three of the five decisions in the Civil War outright, and am ambivalent about (5). I definitely disagreed with (4).
What about you? Which decisions did you agree with and why?
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I’m agree with you, Avi, although I wouldn’t strongly criticize either coach for the two decisions I didn’t like so much (3 and 5). I would have played it differently, but these were nonetheless reasonable calls by the coaches.
My only criticism was Oregon’s decision to go for two on one of their second-half touchdowns. That single point could have really haunted them had the Ducks kicked a field goal toward the end. Kick the extra point earlier, and you’re looking at a potential 8-point lead rather than 7.
Unless you’ve got a play that you are near certain will work, I’d never go for two outside of, say, the final three or four minutes of the game or another obvious situation (e.g., down 15 or 16 with time left only for two scores).
Anyway, a great, GREAT game for the Ducks, the state of Oregon, and the Pac-10. That was fun to watch, and big congratulations to our friends in Eugene—and sympathies to Corvallis.
Go Bears!
The two point conversion was an interesting wrinkle—I generally don’t mind it in the second half (esp around late 3rd quarter area), only because you’re never certain how many times you’ll get back into scoring territory.
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Going for two is also OK...
when you’re up by 27 with less than seven minutes remaining and you think to yourself, “We’ve been moving the ball really well and have an opportunity to punch it in. Besides, that other team might be able to score FOUR TOUCHDOWNS before it’s all over.”
I could see this situation as not pouring it on…
by Montezuma's Revenge on Dec 4, 2009 8:58 AM PST up reply actions
RIley went for it on 4th and 15 because he knew he wouldn't get the ball back...
…and needed to make something happen on that drive. A field goal wouldn’t have cut it… they needed six. Convert the first down and score… Oregon gets the ball back, trailing. Kick a field goal, and Oregon gets the ball back with the lead. Either way, a touchdown was needed for the Beavers to have a chance.
--JB--
www.buildingthedam.com
disagree
a touchdown was needed for the Beavers to have a chance.
The Beavers damn near got the ball back; certainly, they had a very good chance, much less a chance at all. They almost had James in the backfield on third and long, and would have undoubtedly gotten the ball back had they made that tackle.
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Criteria for judging "good" decisions
It is really easy to play armchair quarterback and look at which 4th downs were converted and say that those were the “good” ones. I think you should do a better job of analyzing each decision. 4th downs should be gone for a LOT of the time, but people always think that guaranteed points is a better decision because thats what dumb announcers say.
I love Kelly’s aggressiveness on 4th and short, but at times I think it’s overly aggressive. Somewhere between Tedford and Kelly would be my perfect level of aggressiveness.
"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark
I'm ok with most of the decisions.
I didn’t like the going for two by O’s, but it would have made the lead 3, so i understand it.
I thought the bigger problem on Osu’s side was poor adjustments to the increased pass rush, making the 4th down try’s late that much harder. Also, going for it late for them was a no brainer, several starters on defense were out, they were not in a good position to force a quick thre and out by Oregon.
I also, would not have gone for it quite as much late as Kelly did. once in side the 20, i’d have kicked it.
Go Bears Go
2) Oregon, 3rd quarter, 4th and 6, Oregon State 35, 7 and a half left, Ducks down 9. Tough one. Canfield at this point in the game was looking unstoppable tearing apart Oregon’s defense, so you factor that one in. A 52 yard field goal is really tough, so you’d expect either a punt, going for it, or giving the ball to the Beavers at their own 35. I like this call too—how many touchbacks do we see in this situation?
It should be noted here that Morgan Flint is a very accurate kicker, but anything over 40 is pretty much out of his range. That makes this decision that much easier.
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-L-I-K-E-A-P-E-R-V"
Wow, correct decisions! How refreshing!
#1: There’s almost no reason ever to not go for it on fourth and goal at the 1 yard line, except if a field goal literally wins you the game. The other team having the ball at their OWN 1 is worth 2 points to the team without the ball (between the risk of safety and the decent chance of forcing a punt that gives the non-converting team great field position on their next drive)— almost as much as a field goal is!
#2: At this point on the field, in college, you go for it regardless of what the yards-to-go situation is (again excepting weird end of half/game situations).
#3: This is the one incorrect decision. Odds of converting a 4th and 15 are, maybe, 15% if that. A field goal puts you only a point down, which is crucial— even if you give up a touchdown on the ensuing drive, you’ve got a shot.
#4: Exactly the same situation as #2.
#5: Let’s break it down here. I’m going to assume that OSU has a 25% chance of scoring a touchdown on their 2-minute drive if they start from the 18 and a 30% chance of scoring if they start from the 25. We’ll assume a kickoff starts them at the 25 cause that makes it easy and is basically right anyway.
So if you kick the field goal, you have a 30% chance of giving up an ensuing touchdown. The odds of a made kick from there are probably about 2 in 3 so you’ve got a 1 in 10 chance of losing in regulation and a 1 in 5 chance of going to overtime, where you lose basically 50% of the time. So the odds of losing are about 20%.
If you go for it, let’s say you have a 50% chance of making it. You win all of those games and 75% of the remaining games. You lose 12.5% of the time.
That’s an easy call actually. Not close. Go for the first down.
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by PaulThomas on Dec 4, 2009 12:33 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I like number 5 specifically for the playcall. That slot option had picked up five yards like clockwork, and there are three options to get two yards. Considering Masoli’s decision making, that seemed like the biggest no-brainer.
It's spelled "T-a-k-i-D-O-N-A-L-D-3-0-0-0"
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