Civil War 4th Down Decision Making

It is really easy to play armchair quarterback and look at which 4th downs were converted and say that those were the “good” ones. I think you should do a better job of analyzing each decision. 4th downs should be gone for a LOT of the time, but people always think that guaranteed points is a better decision because thats what dumb announcers say.

I didn’t like the going for two by O’s, but it would have made the lead 3, so i understand it.

I thought the bigger problem on Osu’s side was poor adjustments to the increased pass rush, making the 4th down try’s late that much harder. Also, going for it late for them was a no brainer, several starters on defense were out, they were not in a good position to force a quick thre and out by Oregon.

I also, would not have gone for it quite as much late as Kelly did. once in side the 20, i’d have kicked it.

#1: There’s almost no reason ever to not go for it on fourth and goal at the 1 yard line, except if a field goal literally wins you the game. The other team having the ball at their OWN 1 is worth 2 points to the team without the ball (between the risk of safety and the decent chance of forcing a punt that gives the non-converting team great field position on their next drive)— almost as much as a field goal is!

#2: At this point on the field, in college, you go for it regardless of what the yards-to-go situation is (again excepting weird end of half/game situations).

#3: This is the one incorrect decision. Odds of converting a 4th and 15 are, maybe, 15% if that. A field goal puts you only a point down, which is crucial— even if you give up a touchdown on the ensuing drive, you’ve got a shot.

#4: Exactly the same situation as #2.

#5: Let’s break it down here. I’m going to assume that OSU has a 25% chance of scoring a touchdown on their 2-minute drive if they start from the 18 and a 30% chance of scoring if they start from the 25. We’ll assume a kickoff starts them at the 25 cause that makes it easy and is basically right anyway.

So if you kick the field goal, you have a 30% chance of giving up an ensuing touchdown. The odds of a made kick from there are probably about 2 in 3 so you’ve got a 1 in 10 chance of losing in regulation and a 1 in 5 chance of going to overtime, where you lose basically 50% of the time. So the odds of losing are about 20%.

If you go for it, let’s say you have a 50% chance of making it. You win all of those games and 75% of the remaining games. You lose 12.5% of the time.

That’s an easy call actually. Not close. Go for the first down.