Final Final Pac-10 Bowl Scenarios
by Avinash on Dec 3, 2009 10:26 PM PST
in Football
20 comments
Here's what we know.
1) Oregon's the Pac-10 champ. Congrats to the Addicted to Quack crew.
2) USC winning puts the Trojans in the Holiday and Arizona in the Poinsettia.
3) Arizona winning puts the Wildcats in the Holiday.
4) UCLA is on their own. Not factoring them into bowl scenarios, they'll need help from some bowl out there.
5) I believe the Vegas Bowl has the first choice since Emerald had first dibs last year. If I'm wrong about this someone correct me and I'll adjust a few scenarios below.
6) Oregon State cannot go to the Sun Bowl, since there's a no repeat clause.
7) Thus a Cal win probably puts them in the Sun Bowl.
With that in mind, here are the final scenarios. ((*) Odds are based on Vegas lines, both Cal and USC are favored by 7)
| Scenarios | Rose | Holiday | Sun | Emerald | Vegas | Poinsettia | Odds* |
| Cal wins + USC wins | Oregon | USC | Cal | Furd | OSU | Arizona | 49.48% |
| Cal wins + USC loses | Oregon | Arizona | Cal | Furd | OSU | USC | 20.86% |
| Cal loses + USC wins | Oregon | USC | Furd | OSU | Cal | Arizona | 20.86% |
| Cal loses + USC loses | Oregon | Arizona | Furd | OSU | USC | Cal | 8.80% |
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I believe the Vegas Bowl has the first choice since Emerald had first dibs last year.
I thought Vegas had first dibs last year but the Emerald worked some sort of deal to get Cal, but my memory may be faulty. Either way I think your chart is correct.
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so I believe Vegas had dibs last year, but swapped with Emerald. That means this year they should get dibs?
They swapped last year, but it was mutual so there is no change to the order this year. So Avi’s chart is still correct.
by BeareatsTacos on Dec 4, 2009 12:00 AM PST up reply actions
USC in the Poinsetta Bowl would be cool. Who does the Poinsetta Bowl play?
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USC/Utah rematch! (I think that’s how it goes. TCU goes to the BCS, BYU goes to Las Vegas, and Utah goes to San Diego.)
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The Las Vegas Bowl is largely believed to take Utah over BYU since BYU has been to the Vegas Bowl so many times recently. So BYU should face off against USC in the Poinsettia Bowl.
by BeareatsTacos on Dec 4, 2009 12:03 AM PST up reply actions
Minor quibble
The Sun Bowl’s “no repeat” clause is optional. If they wanted to, they could take OSU again. I think this is extremely unlikely based on their public comments and last year’s terribly exciting 3-0 game against Pitt, so I think the current odds are still accurate.
I could be wrong, but can’t Vegas and Emerald swap again this year? I have to assume that Emerald would want Cal before OSU. Or is Emerald contractually obligated to take the team highest in the Pac-10 standings?
A Cal loss would knock them out of a tie for 4th I think. Oregon, Furd, USC and OSU would all have better records. Technically the Emerald Bowl would like a Bay Area team, but I’m not sure if they can reach down past 4th place and pick anyone up. Wouldn’t surprise me if Vegas got the pick first and managed Cal.
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Both the Emerald and the Vegas Bowl have the option of picking either the 4th or 5th place Pac-10 team. It has normally been the case that the bowl picking 1st will almost always choose the 4th place Pac-10 team. The only notable exception being last year when Vegas picked first and agreed to take Arizona and the Emerald Bowl picking Cal. However that was an inter-bowl agreement between the Vegas and Emerald Bowls and did not require any Pac-10 waiver for Vegas to pick Zona over Cal last year because the Vegas bowl had the option to take the 5th place Pac-10 team over the 4th place team, even though Vegas was picking first.
by BornOnThePlay on Dec 5, 2009 4:11 AM PST up reply actions
Is it wrong to be selfish and want Poinsettias? BYU or Oklahoma should be a good game either way, but there’s no way I’m going to El Paso and I’d be 100% to stay home for the Poinsettia Bowl.
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