Final Final Pac-10 Bowl Scenarios

Here's what we know.

1) Oregon's the Pac-10 champ. Congrats to the Addicted to Quack crew.
2) USC winning puts the Trojans in the Holiday and Arizona in the Poinsettia.
3) Arizona winning puts the Wildcats in the Holiday.
4) UCLA is on their own. Not factoring them into bowl scenarios, they'll need help from some bowl out there.
5) I believe the Vegas Bowl has the first choice since Emerald had first dibs last year. If I'm wrong about this someone correct me and I'll adjust a few scenarios below.
6) Oregon State cannot go to the Sun Bowl, since there's a no repeat clause.
7) Thus a Cal win probably puts them in the Sun Bowl.

With that in mind, here are the final scenarios. ((*) Odds are based on Vegas lines, both Cal and USC are favored by 7)

 

Scenarios Rose Holiday Sun Emerald Vegas Poinsettia Odds*
Cal wins + USC wins Oregon USC Cal Furd OSU Arizona 49.48%
Cal wins + USC loses Oregon Arizona Cal Furd OSU USC 20.86%
Cal loses + USC wins Oregon USC Furd OSU Cal Arizona 20.86%
Cal loses + USC loses Oregon Arizona Furd OSU USC Cal 8.80%
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