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New Mexico 86, Cal 78: Are the Bears On the Bubble Already?

And seven games into the season, Cal is now staring at the bubble.

You might be laughing at this ("it's only December!"), but 4-3, with a tough game with Iowa State this Saturday and a sure loss at Kansas upcoming, combined with the Pac-10's overall perception as a weak conference has the Bears in the tough spot of having to win their conference to have any shot at a tournament bid. It's not a reality I'm happy with, but that's what it's looking like right now.  More notes on yesterday's game against UNM after the jump.

Star-divide

Quick notes.

  • Jamal Boykin is a man beast, and his midrange jumper is a thing of beauty. Another 20-10 night.
  • Patrick Christopher started the game 3-4. He finished the game 2-10. This disappearing act is getting a little tiring.
  • Jorge off the bench>>>Jorge as a starter. No diss to Jorge, who is awesome, but defenses don't respect his shot the way they respect Theo.
  • For a moment, it looked like Jerome Randle was going to carry us to victory a la Arizona. Then New Mexico started trapping and playing up on him, and no one else could really step up.
  • Max played aggressive on offense, but New Mexico ran pick and roll straight at him late. Instead of blocking the shot, he ran with them and let them scoop in the big layups!!! AGGGH.
  • MSF picked up 2 fouls in 2 minutes and really didn't have much of an impact again.
  • Niiiiiikola nailed a few 3s. He was probably the third best player on the floor tonight. That is a sentence I never want to utter again this season.
  • Amoke was just never into the game, fouling out and playing like a guy with the flu. If he plays well we probably pull this out.
  • Our 3 point defense left something to be desired. Lots of clangs by New Mexico kept it close, but we really didn't really challenge their shots enough. And sometimes players were wide wide open.
  • The officiating was horrible (what do you expect in the Pit?). Didn't really cost us the game though; it just totally disrupted the ebb and flow so that neither team could really pull away. Frustrating, but a footnote for me--you don't go on the road in a loud, obnoxious environment and expect to get many calls.
  • We can't beat a zone right now. Syracuse with it's vaunted 2-3, now New Mexico with the 1-2-2.
  • If Cal was a healthy team, we probably win. But sometimes the real world isn't kind enough to hand us the ideal. Hopefully we get Theo back sooner than later and we can see what Cal can do at full strength. Right now we're at 70-75%. Just like our tourney chances.


    Are the Bears on the bubble?
Poll
Is Cal already on the bubble?
No way man, it's way too early.
42 votes
Not really, although we're trending that way.
45 votes
Kind of, depends on how the rest of the conference performs.
26 votes
Yes, the Pac-10 is weak and we might have to finish top 2
43 votes

156 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 28 comments |

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While there isn’t any need to panic yet, it is kind of troubling that our guys don’t seem able to handle even some adversity very well.

I suppose part of that is due to injuries to key players – but while that may be true, it does kind of point to a very shallow and fragile team.

If we go through the year having difficulty dealing with tough situations and player loss, it could be a very long season. Conversely, this is a great opportunity to see just how good a coach Monty is, as this really is his chance to bring players along quicker, and make the necessary adjustments to compensate for the player losses.

A win over Iowa State or the miracle upset of Kansas would be a good sign. Blowout losses to both would be very troubling.

Whose Axe?

OUR AXE!

by SoCal Oski on Dec 3, 2009 1:12 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I think Cal has handled adversity pretty well so far, for being so under manned…

They were getting blown out by Syracuse and Ohio St. but managed to close the gap in both games (before getting blown back out by FTs) With Theo on the floor I think we could have easily taken the lead in either of those games…

What’s troubling to me is our inability to get buckets against the zone, shouldn’t that be a strong point for outside shooting teams? But once again I think having Theo back will play a huge role in reversing this trend

Undefeated in Southern California since Oct. 2009...

by CruzinBears on Dec 3, 2009 2:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Is Cal already on the bubble?

Nah. Disappointing start to the season? Sure. Should Cal be booted from the Top 25? Absolutely. Not on the bubble, though. Christopher’s shot will begin falling. Getting Theo back will be huge. Guys returning from sickness will be nice. Theo especially will help against zones – his shooting and basketball IQ will be big in a variety of ways, from being able to distribute from the high post to another shooter to stretch the defense to making the right pass, it should help the offense get going. I didn’t watch the game, but from the games I have seen and the stats I’ve looked at it looks like Cal will probably be weak down low again this year (though I am a big Boykin fan, have been ever since the first time I saw him step foot on the court [I went to the first game he played in[), but that’s ok, come conference play, there aren’t many bigs in the Pac-10 to worry about.

I don’t expect Cal will stick in there with Kansas, but oh well. All of this is just good experience come conference play. What I can say is right now, the U (University of Richmond, of course) is looking better than Cal. Didn’t expect that…

by Missing Barry on Dec 3, 2009 1:51 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

Agreed on most parts…

Getting Theo back will be HUGE… Having three deep threats on the floor at once will open up a lot of opportunities.

Cal has hung in there with tough opponents and @ UNM looked like a pretty intimidating atmosphere…

Not worried yet, if we play like this a couple weeks into Pac-10 play, then I’ll get worried

Undefeated in Southern California since Oct. 2009...

by CruzinBears on Dec 3, 2009 2:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We’ll be fine if we do well in the Pac-10. IIRC, the last time the Pac-10 got fewer than 4 teams in the tourney was 2004 (a year which may be comparable to this one, but I actually think was a little weaker – and we put 3 teams into the tourney). I think the conference’s overall SoS and ranking will be OK by year end.

Like cocaine straight from Bolivia.

by Thoroughbred on Dec 3, 2009 2:00 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

also, Pac-10 has gotten 6 teams in the tourney three years in a row or something (again IIRC)… my quick prognostication is 3-4 teams this year, and I think Cal will be one of them

Like cocaine straight from Bolivia.

by Thoroughbred on Dec 3, 2009 2:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Huh

Pac-10 is actually ranked 4th in the Pomeroy conference rankings (which should be a little less weird than the team rankings— lot more games played). Cal is #25 despite the three losses.

I know this is uber-meaningless but at least it’s a sign of hope. Basically according to Kenpom the tourney teams for this season are Cal, ASU, and Washington.

That being said, and I know it’s not literally too late for there to be any hope yet, but the best conference win for the Pac-10 right now is a pick-em from Stanford over Virginia, ASU over LSU, and Washington over Wright State. This is not inspiring a whole lot of confidence from me about the league’s at-large chances.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Dec 3, 2009 2:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I guess we have to look around. How are the rest of the conferences faring? Other than Kansas is there really a team out there that isn’t being hurt by senior losses?

Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash on Dec 3, 2009 2:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I’m not sure if we’re differing on any points here, so I don’t understand your ‘Huh’. I know Pomeroy has us rated 4th (we were rated 8th when we got 3 teams in)

It’s not like other Big Six conferences haven’t been having their own troubles with mid-majors and the like.

Like cocaine straight from Bolivia.

by Thoroughbred on Dec 3, 2009 3:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It was just an exclamation based on seeing the KenPom data

not related to your post. I see how that could be misunderstood.

Although, really, what’s going on with conferences 5 and 6?

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Dec 3, 2009 5:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I realized what you meant by the huh right after i clicked post

Like cocaine straight from Bolivia.

by Thoroughbred on Dec 3, 2009 10:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That's the difference between "huh" and "huh?" :p

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Dec 4, 2009 12:34 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You don’t have to be that close to the top 25 to make the tourney. Assuming this is our toughest stretch of the season (with tough opponents and injuries) I think we are OK. Pac-10 will get three teams for sure – if we don’t finish in the top 3 this year, not sure we would have much room to complain.

Plus – we can always make a Pac-10 tourney run and get the auto-berth.

by Tedfordisgod on Dec 3, 2009 3:03 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Fortunately....

…..things like a bunch of injured players, tough early schedules, and a good late season run when all the pieces are finally in place are more than enough to make the tourney. It’s way too early to say bubble. If the Bears end up 14-4 or 15-3 in conference they’ll make it in easy. That said, a loss to ISU will make me nervous.

by ohsooso on Dec 3, 2009 3:23 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I think even 12-6 in conference will get us there

Like cocaine straight from Bolivia.

by Thoroughbred on Dec 3, 2009 3:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

especially if we sweep a good team or something

Like cocaine straight from Bolivia.

by Thoroughbred on Dec 3, 2009 3:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

trajectory

a couple years ago the title of this post would prolly have been proceeded with a !
today, it’s

sandy barbour, my hero.

by since1997 on Dec 3, 2009 4:38 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

what the...

*today, it’s proceded with a sad face

by since1997 on Dec 3, 2009 4:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Rec'd

So true. The future is bright with Monty!

Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash on Dec 3, 2009 4:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Good job looking at the upside Kodiak

I just hope we learn how to break down a zone sooner rather than later.

Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash on Dec 3, 2009 4:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Huskies not showing too well early.

But comebacks have been common… Illinois came back down 25 or so last night

Like cocaine straight from Bolivia.

by Thoroughbred on Dec 3, 2009 4:54 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Giving up 50 points though…yikes.

LAPHONSO ELLIS IN THE STUDIO!

Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash on Dec 3, 2009 4:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

So far, none of the Bears three loses are bad. They are all on the road, or at least on neutral courts, and all were against good teams. Granted, they really do need to get a signature win at some point for their résumé, but for now, 4-3 isn’t so bad. No need to panic, especially with Theo healing and flu season passing.

So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!

by ragnarok on Dec 3, 2009 10:37 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

... problem is, the options for "signature wins" are, basically,

at Kansas.

And maybe at Washington if you’re feeling generous. With the conference being the way it is (thanks guys! another 0 for 3 tonight!), I’m not sure even that’s secure.

I have an abiding fear that Cal is going to be one of those teams with an RPI in the 30s that everyone will say “but they didn’t beat anyone!” like Missouri State a few years back. Which means either not making it or a terrible seed if they do make it.

My hopes for any kind of NCAA tournament success are basically gone at this point. I’m just hoping for a conference title.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Dec 4, 2009 12:40 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

My hopes for any kind of NCAA tournament success are basically gone at this point

Well that’s a litlte rash now, don’t you think? It’s a long season, this team will get better when some guys get healthier…I’m not expecting a deep run, but I don’t think Sweet 16 is out of the picture at all.

by Missing Barry on Dec 4, 2009 8:59 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Regarding your quick notes...

1) Jamal’s midrange jumper is NOT a thing of “beauty”, but it is very effective and should be used more often. I would have liked to see have seen him flash the high post against Syracuse and pop from the free throw line. With Theo out and PC not doing his expected scoring, I think Boykin’s is realizing more and more he’s got to be a team leader.

What I think is even more “beautiful” are Boykin’s post moves around the basket. He gets a guy on either shoulder and he’s using him. He can’t elevate over taller defenders, but he is crafty and patient and will pump fake, pivot, step under or around which ever way the defender allows. Very smart and enjoyable to watch.

2) PC’s disappearing act. Yes, surprising to witness, and very frustrating. He is not the highly rated NBA draftee-in-waiting some have suggested, but we will all be singing his praises once again when he gets his groove going sometime later this season. His long 3 is being targeted and taken away by defenses and he needs to develop some slashing dribble moves to the basket and finding other ways of getting open by moving without the ball. Surely he is working on these things and it’s only a matter of time. Have faith.

3) Jorge off bench or as starter. Let’s face it. Jorge was a late recruit signee probably b/c he wasn’t highly coveted by the high majors. Monty got here late and late and had to take SOMEone with his first recruiting class. I recall some of the mocking posts on this site when Jorge was signed and his big hair photo flashed. People questioned his heritage and asked how a Mexican could be any good. SO, everyone was absolutely delighted when he came out and busted balls all over the court. Bloggers didn’t care that he didn’t have an outside shot or that he was sometimes wild and made turnovers and wreckless fouls. They just loved his effort and that he gave the team some fighting attitude. He greatly exceeded expectations. Going forward, let’s just remember that Jorge is not 6’5’ with super hops, a killer crossover, and the silky smooth jumper. He’s a role player, and plays that role VERY WELL and is getting better all the time!

4) Max and the pick and roll and giving up that big layup late… I think there were two things I saw on this play. Isn’t the technique/job of a big man these days to HEDGE and block the dribbler at a horizontal position in front of the screen so he can’t get the angle on the big man? Max didn’t do that. I always see coaches busting big men for not setting their hedge out far/high enough at the top of the key. Now I know why! Max needs to learn that hedge move better. Secondly, what the hell was Boykin thinking as a help defender? He was right in the the paint when Max’s player dribbled around him, took one step forward, and then backed off as he shot the ball. I hate Bobby Knight to tears, but I can still hear him from that Syracuse game complaining about “help defense”. Boykin’s man was set up for a 3 in the corner, and Boykin was mentally ready to sprint back that way when the dish came. But the most dangerous man on the court is the one with the ball, and Boykin never stopped him, so the pass to the corner never came. I blame Jamal as much as Max for giving up these 2 points. PC was further away and would have gotten there late, but also could have potentially helped. Out entire team was guarding against the 3 and they had 5 wide. Nobody manned the fort.

5. Regarding our trouble handling zones by Syracuse and NM: I am reminded of how POOR a job we did handling Robinson’s Oregon State 1-2-2 last year. Oh, man, was that painful to watch us try to execute off of! I sure hope we don’t re-live THAT experience!

Regarding NCAA’s… don’t worry about it. Wait and see how we do in conference play.
We were picked to finish 1st or 2nd in the league. If we finish in the top 3, we will get a bid. If we finish 4th or below, everyone will have had their hopes dashed saying we didn’t live up to expectations this season, whether we get a bid or not. So, all this NM loss did was give us a worse seed.

Keep in mind, people, this team has only ONE 4-star recruit on the floor, Patrick Christopher. Seeley was 4-stars but at this point is able to get only a whiff of playing time as an emergency backup, or in inconsequential moments. We have no 5 star recruits. Randle, Boykin, Kamp, Amoke, Jorge, Bak, MSF, Smith, were all just 3 stars. Max, Nikola and Theo all had no-star ratings on Rivals. And not that Rivals star ratings are the end-all be-all, but they should help you set expectations.

The good news is that both Franklin and Solomon are 4-stars coming in next year. The bad news is we are still going to be shallow on the interior. In other words, I hope Max learns that hedge move! He’s the type of player Monty would never be messing with under normal circumstances, but now has got to be his pet project for the next couple years! Imagine going from the NBA caliber centers to Max, thinking you might like to make a run with the big boys in the big league, but now having to drop back to teaching the basics to a guy like Max. I imagine that thought has crossed his mind once or twice (no disrespect intended to Max).

But I digress… point is, it all comes down to recruiting. Ohio State and Syracuse are continually getting 4 and 5 star recruits – no wonder they killed us! And similarly, we also shouldn’t be so surprised when we give up a game now and then to the likes of New Mexico, on the road, when we are injured and sick.

Last point here:
Cal’s top 6 players in the rotation vs. NM = 1 four-star, 3 three-stars, 2 no-stars
NM top 6 players in the rotation vs. Cal = 1 four-star, 4 three-stars, 1 no-star
(And yet, Syracuse’s star Wesley Johnson was only a 2-star recruit!)

by concordtom on Dec 4, 2009 6:54 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Isn’t the technique/job of a big man these days to HEDGE and block the dribbler at a horizontal position in front of the screen so he can’t get the angle on the big man?

Yes – though the purpose isn’t to prevent the ball handler from getting an angle on the big man – you’re pretty much conceding that the ball handler can beat the big man (after all, it’s usually a small quick guy vs a bigger, slower guy). So the purpose of the hedge is to make the ball handler take an angle that allows his own man to recover, at which point the big man recovers to his guy, taking away the passing lane in the process (especially someone like Max, even if he doesn’t get back to his guy in time, his size alone makes it real tough for a smaller guy to get a pass by him to the open roll man).

by Missing Barry on Dec 4, 2009 9:05 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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