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CGB Top 25 - Week 12

I'm really going to have to explain myself this week.

Yeah, Texas Christian University at #1.  Really.  All four of the top teams were close (though all four of us had Alabama over Florida), but in the end, both Yellow Fever and I put TCU on top, and that was just enough.

RankTeamDelta
1 TCU 2
2 Texas 2
3 Alabama 2
4 Florida 2
5 Cincinnati

But, why TCU?  Well, ignoring the natural bias against TCU (face it, even if we hate Texas or Alabama, on the first glace, we're ALWAYS going to regard an undefeated Crimson Tide over an undefeated Horned Frogs team; it's a perfectly natural conditioned reaction, and we should all accept it so we can move forward), if we actually consider what each team has accomplished this year, they're all pretty comparable.

Star-divide

Comparing Texas' record to TCU's we find that although the Longhorn's best win (vs. Oklahoma State) might be better than anything the Horned Frogs have done (though how good the Cowboys really are is still plenty debatable), the rest of Texas' schedule is full of blah.  The Big XII is really down this year -- neither Oklahoma nor Texas Tech are really very good, and there's nothing in the Longhorn's non-conference schedule to really recommend them.  Meanwhile, not only has TCU dominated the Mountain West, winning going away vs. both BYU and Utah, but they've also got that little forgotten matter of a win at Clemson, something hardly thought of at the time, but more impressive now that the Tigers have locked up a spot in the ACC title game.

But what about Alabama and Florida?  Well, what about them?  Turns out, their undefeated run through the SEC is really not much more impressive than an undefeated run through the Big XII, or even the Mountain West.  Outside of the Gators and the Tide, good as they might be, the SEC collectively has been a huge collection of mediocrity.  LSU, owners of zero wins of note, was previously thought to be the next best team, but a loss at Ole Miss (however much you want to blame Les Miles' inability to manage a football game) really shows that they're no better than the Rebels, who themselves are one of the largest disappointments on the season.

In fact, I went through and tallied up all the SEC's collective non-conference record to this point.  The 12 teams involved have collectively played a total (TOTAL) of seven non-conference road games.  Yes, they went 6-1 in those games (the only loss was Georgia at Oklahoma State), but the conference's only road win over a team with a winning record thus far has been Mississippi State's stirring victory at 8-3 Middle Tennessee State.  In contrast, they've played 11 games against I-AA competition (LSU and Tennessee didn't play an FCS school, but Ole Miss partially made up for it by playing TWO of them).  Collectively, I count exactly one SEC non-conference win over a Top 25 team, that of Alabama over 8-3 Virginia Tech to open the season, and just two others over BCS-conference schools with winning records (Auburn over 7-3 West Virginia, and Arkansas over 6-5 -- soon to be 6-6 -- Texas A&M).  Overall, they have nine victories over teams with winning records.  The others six?  Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Ohio, Middle Tennessee, and Troy (twice).  Woo.

So, how good are Alabama and Florida, really?  I have no friggin' clue.  They might be great, but they might be just beating up on mediocrity.  I can tell you one thing -- playing Chattanooga and Florida International on the third weekend in November sure isn't going to help their cases.

6 Boise State
7 Georgia Tech
8 Oregon 1
9 Pittsburgh 1
10 Ohio State 1

I really, honestly believe Ohio State isn't a Top 10-caliber team, but who else are you going to put up here?  Seriously?  I'm still a little skeptical of Pitt, too (and the whole Big East in general).  Might be great, might be scheduling well.

11 Oregon State 4
12 Iowa 2
13 Oklahoma State 1
14 Virginia Tech 4
15 Southern Cal 1

USC this high is my fault, but I really think their non-conference record should give them some benefit of the doubt regarding their performance of late.  In no way is this a vintage Trojans team, true, and previous editions would have been able to plug-and-play through the various injuries they've suffered, but they're still good enough to beat most of the teams below them (Stanford excepted, obviously).

16 Miami (Florida)
17 North Carolina
18 California 5
19 Penn State 2
20 Brigham Young 1

Why do we continue to vote for Penn State?  I suspect it's inertia.  Ten wins, none of them over anyone remotely impressive.  Losses to both Iowa and Ohio State, neither one close.  The best argument you can make for them is that they've been able to win when they're supposed to, and I suppose that's something.

21 Utah 2
22 Arizona 2
23 Stanford 10
24 LSU 14
25 Clemson 3
Last week's ballot

LSU is still ranked, but barely.  I wanted to eject them entirely, but had trouble finding 25 teams I wanted to include more than them.  Arizona up 2 after a loss?  Well, a double-OT loss to a Top 10 team is nothing to be ashamed of.  Their fan's behaviour at the game?  Now that's something else entirely.

Dropped Out: Wisconsin (#20), Houston (#25).

Wisky lost to Northwestern, and is rightly ejected from our poll.  Houston, on the other hand, mostly got lost in the shuffle.  They're still hanging around in the Top 30, waiting for Clemson or Arizona or someone else to eat it in ignominious fashion.

0 recs  |  Comment 6 comments |

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I’m still shaking my head at that USC ballot. Trojans at #10…AGGGGGGHHHHH….

Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com

by Avinash on Nov 24, 2009 2:18 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

but the conference’s only road win over a team with a winning record thus far has been Mississippi State’s stirring victory at 8-3 Middle Tennessee State.

What is the logic behind not classifying a neutral-site win comparably to a road win? For all intents and purposes, neutral site games are “road games” for both teams. Alabama and VT both had to travel and give up half the stadium to the other team.

Alabama should at least be ranked ahead of Texas. The Tide has beaten 3 teams currently ranked in the coaches top 25 (and two more that received votes), Texas has beaten one team (OSU) from that same set of teams.

I don’t really see TCU as a #1, despite their top-end schedule being good, the rest of it is really, really bad, and playing mediocre teams week after week is much more difficult than playing creampuffs week after week.

That said, your ranking rationale being what it is, TCU makes sense there . . . Texas at #2 ahead of Alabama doesn’t, though. The SEC is looking at least as good as the Big12 this year (if not better) plus the Tide had an out-of-conference non-home game against a real opponent.

I'm wrong all the time.

by PeteHoliday on Nov 24, 2009 3:23 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

For all intents and purposes, neutral site games are "road games" for both teams. Alabama and VT both had to travel and give up half the stadium to the other team.

It’s not comparable. It’s halfway in between, or so. Yeah, they have to travel, but they’re not dealing with a hostile crowd (50/50 crowds aren’t so bad). They get some credit for playing a neutral site game, but not as much as if they had actually played in Blacksburg.

Also, my rant was getting long, and I had to simplify some things.

You do make a good argument for ‘Bama over Texas, though. I’m not sure if I switch my votes it will change our collective ballot, but I’ll see. I should make it clear that I do think all of these teams are pretty close; how you differentiate blowouts over differing inferior opponents is hard to do.

So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!

by ragnarok on Nov 24, 2009 10:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The way SEC teams (especially Alabama) travel, the crowd at most OOC road games isn’t that bad. For example, when we play Duke next year, I would guess the crowd will be even LESS hostile than the 50% VT fans in the Georgia Dome.

For what it’s worth: the VT fans were damn loud. Far louder than some SEC road games we’ve seen this year, for sure.

For some teams, neutral site may be half-way in between, but for teams that travel well and buy tickets, the difference in advantage between a home game and NS game is pretty big and the difference between disadvantage from a road game / neutral site game isn’t so much.

In any event, agreed that they’re close, but if we’re going to talk about strength of schedule, it’s tough to put Texas above anybody but Florida.

I'm wrong all the time.

by PeteHoliday on Nov 25, 2009 6:31 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

In any case, it’s all going to work itself out for Bama and Florida. Moreover, my post completely ignored that the SEC has three chances at an impressive non-conference victory this weekend, with Florida/Florida State, South Carolina/Clemson, and Georgia/Georgia Tech. Winning at least two of those will certainly help the league’s overall profile (if it’s just Florida beating a 6-6 FSU, that might not help so much).

So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!

by ragnarok on Nov 25, 2009 8:55 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

UGA beating GA Tech

Would be one hell of an upset, but it might bring down the ACC enough to devalue the VT win.

I'm wrong all the time.

by PeteHoliday on Nov 25, 2009 1:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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