Where will Cal end up in the Pac-10?

by Troatie on Nov 22, 2009 1:14 AM PST

So an amazing Big Game got me curious where Cal could end up at the end of the season.

I don't know how the tie breaks work, other than for the Rose Bowl (as this explains). In fact the other bowls can kind of take who they want to some degree, right? Or do they use overall record as well? Well let's assume the Rose Bowl tie breaks apply for the rest of the standings.

First off some assumptions.

Cal beats UW.
USC beats UCLA (the iffiest of my assumptions?)
UW beats WSU
'Zona beats ASU

So that means the games in question are: Oregon State at Oregon, and Arizona at USC.

Also note, based on my assumptions thus far the last four teams are:

7) UCLA

8) UW

9) ASU

10) WSU

Scenario 1: Oregon over OSU, USC over 'Zona

Oregon
USC
OSU
Cal
'Furd
'Zona

Scenario 2: Oregon over OSU, 'Zona over USC

Oregon
'Zona
OSU
Cal
'Furd
USC

Scenario 3: OSU over Oregon, USC over 'Zona

OSU
Oregon
'Furd
USC
Cal
'Zona

Scenario 4: OSU over Oregon, 'Zona over USC

OSU
Oregon
Cal
'Zona
'Furd
USC

Scenario 2 was the oddest to figure out, so I'll go through the reasoning

Oregon has best Pac-10 record, so they're #1
USC is #6 by record
Arizona, OSU, Cal and Stanfurd are tied at 6-3 in the conference
To break this you look at the records amongst just those four teams: Stanfurd is 0-3 so they're #5, the rest are 2-1.
That means compare the records of OSU, Cal and Arizona amongst each other. They're 1-1 each. So we start going through the Pac-10 one team at time (in standing order) until we find a team the tie break against.
Oregon beat OSU, Cal and Arizona. All 3 beat Stanfurd. But in this Scenario, Arizona beats USC (who beat Cal and OSU) so Arizona gets the #2 spot.
Then the last tie break is Cal, OSU. OSU wins the head-to-head. OSU #3, Cal #4.

Or did I miss something.

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Comments

I know it is not an obligation, rather a tradition for bowl games to pick teams based on conference standings (#1 = Rose Bowl, #2 = Holiday, etc). When teams have the same record, do the bowl selection committees apply the same approach used for determining the Rose Bowl, to all other bowls? Or (if the Pac-10 finishes with multiple 6-3 teams) does the holiday bowl, simply select which ever team is most attractive (possibly USC)?

by chowder on Nov 22, 2009 2:55 AM PST reply actions

Yes.

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Nov 22, 2009 7:50 AM PST up reply actions

I'm not sure where we'll end up

But we’ll be better than stanfurd in the head-to-head

Costs assessed against Twist

by CALumbus Bear on Nov 22, 2009 7:49 AM PST reply actions

yeah journalists love to come out with “bowl scenarios” when there’s way too much football left to be played.

I think one interesting scenario of note is that if Arizona beats USC and Oregon beats OSU, Cal would go to the H-bowl. Let’s see how Arizona handles these tough two losses. When the students were jumping out of the stands prematurely I was thinking “Here comes the bad juju.”

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Nov 22, 2009 7:54 AM PST up reply actions

Plus no bowl in their right mind would ever take Stanfurd over Cal. You just can’t trust Stanfurd’s 11 fans to travel

The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS

by norcalnick on Nov 22, 2009 9:53 AM PST up reply actions

I thought those 11 people were the team

by kencraw on Nov 22, 2009 12:37 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs

LOLOLOL

rec’d!!

CGB: Wasting Your Potential, Your Time, & Your Life Since 2006.

by BearStage on Nov 22, 2009 11:22 PM PST up reply actions

Ratto’s $0.02.

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Nov 22, 2009 7:56 AM PST reply actions

He thinks Cal will get the Holiay Bowl if Scenario 2 plays out.

"We lose to Stanford in many sports, but if you want to make a Cal team quit, bring a weapon."
--Coach Clark

by carp on Nov 22, 2009 7:56 AM PST up reply actions

Bowls get to pick between tied teams, for whatever reasons they deem relevant. Past the Rose Bowl, tiebreakers don’t matter.

So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!

by ragnarok on Nov 22, 2009 10:06 AM PST reply actions

To be clear, the bowls can chose to observe tie-breakers if they want, and they tend to observe head to head tie-breakers unless there are extenuating circumstances, but I think everyone agrees that multi-way tie-breakers where there’s not one team that beat all the rest, the bowl committees don’t even pretend to know how to break those ties “by the numbers”.

by kencraw on Nov 22, 2009 12:14 PM PST up reply actions

I would definitely agree with this.

So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!

by ragnarok on Nov 22, 2009 1:17 PM PST up reply actions

Troatie, you did all your tie-breakers right by the Rose Bowl rules, but as others have pointed out, they don’t matter for bowls below the Rose Bowl. So what you really need is an entirely different post that talks about which bowl is interested in who.

As an example, does the Sun want OSU since they just had them? Holiday loves the Bears because they bring a lot of fans but would they prefer a team that hasn’t been their recently?. Of course the Emerald would like a Bay Area team, but does the Furd bring enough fans? Does every bowl want USC if they can get them?

I know they’re more subjective, but these are the real questions to be asked.

by kencraw on Nov 22, 2009 12:13 PM PST reply actions

Some quick answers to your questions

1. No. The Sun Bowl has a specific clause in their contract preventing them from having to take the same team twice in a row. I’d think that’s in there for a reason.
2. Depends on the other team(s) available. I can possibly see Oregon State or Arizona going to the Holiday, and definitely USC.
3. Given how much trouble Stanfurd has filling their own similarly-sized stadium for the Big Game (or even Notre Dame next week), I would say it’s doubtful. I think, given the choice, the Emerald takes Cal again.
4. They all want USC. Instant TV ratings, and imagine a USC/Oklahoma matchup in the Holiday Bowl.

So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!

by ragnarok on Nov 22, 2009 4:14 PM PST up reply actions

Holiday Bowl

I don’t think there’s any way that the Holiday Bowl doesn’t pick USC if they win out and are in a multi-way tie for second. USC is the biggest draw in terms of ratings, probably would travel the best in general, and is also by far the closest school to San Diego.

If it comes down to OSU and Cal for the Sun Bowl, I think they would opt for Cal, and it appears that Ratto and Miller agree — Cal has a bit more national Q rating, having been as high as 6 and in the national rankings most of this season. Also, OSU was in the Sun Bowl last season.

So basically I think by far the most likely scenario is us going to the Sun Bowl.

by sardonic on Nov 22, 2009 3:50 PM PST reply actions

I want an Emerald Bowl!!!!!

by ACgiant97 on Nov 25, 2009 1:39 PM PST reply actions

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Golden Bears Football Schedule

Fresno St.	Sat 09/03	W 36 - 21
@ Colorado The Ralphie Report	Sat 09/10	W 36 - 33
Presbyterian	Sat 09/17	W 63 - 12
@ Washington UW Dawg Pound	Sat 09/24	L 23 - 31
@ Oregon Addicted To Quack	Thu 10/06	L 15 - 43
USC Conquest Chronicles	Thu 10/13	L 9 - 30
Utah Block U	Sat 10/22	W 34 - 10
@ UCLA Bruins Nation	Sat 10/29	L 14 - 31
Washington St. CougCenter	Sat 11/05	W 30 - 7
Oregon St. Building The Dam	Sat 11/12	W 23 - 6
@ Stanford Rule Of Tree	Sat 11/19	L 28 - 31
@ Arizona St. House Of Sparky	Fri 11/25	W 47 - 38
@ Texas Burnt Orange Nation	Wed 12/28	L 10 - 21

Pacific-12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.2.2012 at 11:12 PM PST)

North	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
Oregon Ducks Addicted To Quack	8	1	12	2
Stanford Cardinal Rule Of Tree	8	1	11	2
Washington Huskies UW Dawg Pound	5	4	7	6
California Golden Bears California Golden Blogs	4	5	7	6
Oregon St. Beavers Building The Dam	3	6	3	9
Washington St. Cougars CougCenter	2	7	4	8

South	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
USC Trojans Conquest Chronicles	7	2	10	2
UCLA Bruins Bruins Nation	5	4	6	8
Utah Utes Block U	4	5	8	5
Arizona St. Sun Devils House Of Sparky	4	5	6	7
Arizona Wildcats Arizona Desert Swarm	2	7	4	8
Colorado Buffaloes The Ralphie Report	2	7	3	10