Oregon State's Unit Ranking
by Troatie on Nov 2, 2009 4:55 PM PST
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PrintI know it's only Tuesday, but I'm really excited for Saturday. It's been so long since Cal has hosted OSU and come out on top. So I started wondering how we match up.
| Stat | Yards per Game | National Rank |
| Cal Pass Offense | 231.3 | 48th |
| OSU Pass Defense | 272.1 | 116th |
| Cal Run Offense | 196.1 | 21st |
| OSU Run Defense | 108.0 | 27th (3-way tie) |
| OSU Pass Offense | 272.1 | 22nd |
| Cal Pass Defense | 268.0 | 115th |
| OSU Run Offense | 136.5 | 75th |
| Cal Run Defense | 109.3 | 30th |
| Stat | Points per Game | National Rank |
| Cal Offense | 33.6 | 18th |
| OSU Defense | 24.9 | 69th |
| OSU Offense | 29.4 | 43rd |
| Cal Defense | 22.1 | 43rd |
Couple of fun things to notice
- OSU has the same number of yards per game passing on offense and defense.
- Cal's and OSU's defense are ranked right next to each other in both passing and rushing.
- OSU's scoring offense is ranked the same as Cal's scoring defense.
- OSU's rushing offense is quietly not doing that well. What happened to 'Quizz? Is the OSU line terrible or something?
- Looks like there is going to be lots and lots and lots of passing in this game.
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One of the few pass defenses worse than us…..is OSU.
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I have no explanation for why our pass defense is so bad. Inexperience maybe? But we are every bit as talented and way more athletic than last year’s pass defense.
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Nov 2, 2009 6:39 PM PST up reply actions
Inexperience I’m guessing. Talent doesn’t make up for snaps.
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by Avinash Kunnath on Nov 2, 2009 6:48 PM PST up reply actions
Oregon State’s offensive line lost four seniors including their LT. Didn’t stop them from running it up on USC though, although they have struggled against most opponents.
This has all the makings of a shootout.
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Struggled against most opponents?
Not sure where you get those stats. Quizz is averaging 116 YPG and has 14 rushing TDs on the year. He had 3 games of under 100 yards rushing, yes, but only one game so far this year averaging less than 4.5 yards per carry (Cincinnati).
It’s hard to say our rushing YPG is low because its a controlled yardage. We don’t have the explosive rushing offenses of Oregon, West Virginia, Georgia Tech, etc. But I would hardly say that teams have found a way to stop it.
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Nov 2, 2009 6:35 PM PST up reply actions
That’s true, his YPC is up, although the rushing YPC is down altogether, which I guess is because Canfield is getting sacked more than Moveao was last year (again, offensive line). He is running for less than last season.
Oregon State’s offense is definitely very balanced, perhaps even more so than last year when they relied 95% on the Rodgers brothers (as opposed to this season, when they rely on them 75%). So the makings of a shootout? I stand by that.
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by Avinash Kunnath on Nov 2, 2009 6:45 PM PST up reply actions
Actually Av, hate to correct you again, but the Rodgers brothers are accounting for more of the offense this year than last year.
Our sacks are up this year, but if you watch our games, its due more to Canfield holding onto the ball than line break down. We only replaced 2 starters from last year. Our Center, Right Tackle, and Left Guard are all the same. And our new starting left tackle was considered one of the top offensive lineman as a senior last year.
I think our stats are again misleading at this point due to our annual Oregon State early struggles. Things should even out by the end of the year.
And the general rule of thumb: think its gonna be a shootout, it usually ends up a defensive battle.
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Nov 2, 2009 7:04 PM PST up reply actions
Damnit. I suck.
Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
by Avinash Kunnath on Nov 2, 2009 8:22 PM PST up reply actions
You don’t suck. You just don’t watch Oregon State football. And actually that, in many people’s eyes, makes you very, very cool
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Nov 2, 2009 8:25 PM PST up reply actions
We both need USC to lose another Pac10 game for the Holiday Bowl to be in the picture. I don’t know if that’s going to happen.
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Nov 2, 2009 7:17 PM PST up reply actions
USC
I think they’ll make a BCS game. I don’t think they’ll lose another game this season.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Nov 2, 2009 7:30 PM PST up reply actions
They could
But the Pac10 has historically struggled getting 2 teams in the BCS (I don’t have to remind Cal fans of that…)
Given that there could potentially be 6 undefeated teams— SEC Champs, Texas, Boise State, TCU, Cincinnati, Iowa
So for the sake of argument, let’s say that the SEC champ and Texas get in to the BCS NCG
That leaves 8 spots for the BCS in this scenario
Oregon-Iowa in the Rose Bowl
You can pencil in the 2nd place SEC team in the Sugar Bowl against Boise State/TCU
Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl against the ACC Champion
So that leaves the Fiesta Bowl. And that’s where the problems arise
Boise State/TCU (if undefeated) will get there. You could see USC there at 10-2. BUT….
But what happens if LSU wins out (beating Alabama along the way)… If they beat Florida in the SEC CG, you could potentially see them in the NCG (they are one spot behind Oregon, but we all know the power of the SEC CG jump). This would leave the media with a boner. 2 at-large SEC teams with 1 loss (Florida and Alabama). So in this scenario, its very likely that Alabama at 11-1 (from the SEC) gets the Fiesta nod over USC, leaving us with an insane 3 SEC teams in the BCS, and adding more fuel to the fire.
A more likely scenario, however, is Penn State winning out. Currently, PSU is 1 spot ahead of USC with an 8-1 record. If they win out, they will have a better record, and a common opponent (Ohio State). And there’s no financial reason to leave them out— they travel just as well (if not better) than USC, and is a huge market.
Is it also possible that the Sugar Bowl takes both 2nd place SEC AND Penn State, leaving the Fiesta Bowl a TCU-Boise State match up? It would be hard to justify leaving out either undefeated team in favor of a 10-2 USC team, especially one who got blown out by Oregon, who got beat down by Boise State.
I know these are very specific scenarios, but if you look at remaining schedules of each team, they aren’t completely unplausable.
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Nov 2, 2009 8:24 PM PST up reply actions
leaving us with an insane 3 SEC teams in the BCS
I thought it was against the rules to have 3 teams from one conference in the BCS. Now I gotta go wade through 95 pages of college football statutes to figure it out. DAMN YOU BCS!
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
(You are probably right, but enter snide remark here) Have you been watching college football the last 5 years?
Rules are meant to be broken, as long as it favors the SEC
If that scenario happens, where LSU wins out and ends up in the NCGame, leaving 12-1 Florida and 11-1 Alabama. One team would be bitching up a storm about how tough their schedule is and their only loss was to the team playing in the NCGame.
Whining whining here we come!
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Nov 2, 2009 8:29 PM PST up reply actions
Here’s the relative language from the official BCS site:
No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings.
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
Can Twist come in here and translate this legal jargon into simple terms?
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Nov 2, 2009 8:36 PM PST up reply actions
Well now that that is cleared up..
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Nov 2, 2009 8:41 PM PST up reply actions
It’s a scenario so crazy, it’s hard for me to think of a hypothetical. I think the Big XII has come closest in recent years to this most delicious of doomsday scenarios, so I’ll use them.
Let’s say Oklahoma is ranked #1 at 12-0 after the regular season, and Texas is ranked #2 at 11-1, losing only in close fashion to the Sooners and annihilating everyone else. The SEC, Pac-10, ACC and Big 10 teams all cannibalize each other. Oklahoma then loses a close Big XII title game to 9-3 Kansas (or some such nonsense), but only falls to #2 in the BCS standings due to fabulous computer numbers. Texas rises to #1. In this scenario, Texas and Oklahoma would meet in the MNCG, while Kansas would travel to the Fiesta Bowl.
I can’t really see this happening with Alabama, Florida and LSU. LSU would have to win the conference, beating both Alabama and Florida in the process, while somehow keeping both the Tide and the Gators ranked in the Top 2. Not going to happen.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
Another fun scenario
Remember the threats of an Ohio State/Michigan rematch in the title game a couple years ago? Let’s say that Michigan lost, but then didn’t drop past #2, thus setting up the rematch. Then, let’s say that some other Big Ten team (Minnesota?) runs 8-0 through the conference schedule, missing both the Buckeyes and the Wolverines. Due to their Rose Bowl drought, they get the Rose Bowl bid through tiebreakers, while Ohio State and Michigan proceed to the title game.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
That’s probably more realistic than your Big 12 scenario
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Nov 2, 2009 8:52 PM PST up reply actions
This came closest in 2006, the very year you're talking about
Wisconsin went 12-1, their only loss being to Michigan. Had they dodged Michigan (and Ohio State), they most certainly had beaten Michigan State, who went 4-8 that year. Had they scheduled a better non-conference schedule and lost 2 non-conference games, that could have played out exactly the same way
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Nov 2, 2009 8:59 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, I have to agree. So USC is going to get a BCS bid.
So of the two of us, we are in the worst position, having already played (and lost) to Arizona. But they still have both USC and Oregon to play.
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Nov 2, 2009 8:51 PM PST up reply actions
Also, as long as we're making snide remarks :-)
It would be hard to justify leaving out either undefeated team in favor of a 10-2 USC team
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
See: 2-loss Ohio State being selected for the Fiesta Bowl last year over undefeated Boise State.
"Let me tell you a story. I was a political prisoner for two years. The instant I was released I ran to McDonald's. I had a Big Mac and a Coke.
It was fantastic."
-Toyama Koichi, US Presidential candidate from Japan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGZqOkeYbB0
Just remembered that. And I see your point. But to play devil’s advocate:
Ohio State’s two losses last year— USC and Penn State, both BCS teams
Boise State had no win like beating a top 10 Oregon this year. Also, Boise State and TCU are both ranked top 6 right now in the BCS. It would be really hard to actually justify it this year
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Nov 2, 2009 8:39 PM PST up reply actions
No, no. Believe me. I know.
But that’s my point. It would hard to justify it for any reason other than money, which we know is the main factor in the decision making. Usually, they have some “reason” but this year, they wouldn’t
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Nov 2, 2009 8:38 PM PST up reply actions
OSU:
Yards per play: 5.8
Yards allowed per play: 5.7
Cal:
Yards per play: 6.4
Yards allowed per play: 5.5
I like yards per play because it takes tempo out of the equation and boils things down to how well they move the ball and stop the other team from moving the ball. On that basis Cal appears better, although it might not mean much because OSU’s probably faced a tougher schedule:
Uncommon opponents:
Even matches
EWU=Portland St.
UNLV=Maryland (holy God the Terps are bad)
Advantage to Cal
Oregon > Cincinnati (marginally)
Advantage to OSU
Arizona>>>>>>>Minnesota
Stanford>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>WSU
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
Even matches
EWU=Portland St.
Bee tee dubs, EWU beat Portland State 47-10 last Saturday.
Praise be to Tedford!
BBDB?
Despite the similarity in their pass and run defense rankings, there’s a large difference in their rankings based on points per game. Could be special teams and field position, but maybe this is a way of trying to measure that mythical white whale, BBDB.
Well, I don’t know how much meaning the numbers have, but here’s red zone stats for comparison:
OSU defense allows:
Points in 89% of opponent’s red zone trips (24/27)
Touchdowns in 81% of opponent’s red zone trips (22/27)
Cal defense allows:
Points in 83% of opponent’s red zone trips (20/24)
Touchdowns in 46% of opponent’s red zone trips (11/24)
Whoa! I’m not smart enough to tell you if that’s something that Cal is legitimately good at or the result of random statistical variance in a small sample size, but still!
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
Compare that each red zone offense
Oregon State Offense in Red Zone:
Points in 95% of trips (33/35)
But TDs in only 65% (23/35)
Cal Offense in Red Zone:
Points in 85% of trips (23/27)
TDs in 63% of trips (17/27)
So what this tells me is that Oregon State has been settling for field goals, and Cal relies on the big play for scoring. Neither team has been consistently impressive all year long. We shall see on Saturday
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Nov 2, 2009 8:34 PM PST up reply actions
By Jove, I think we’ve got it!
That’s pretty interesting; good digging. If I ever get motivated, an interesting test would be how repeatable that kind of performance is annually per defensive coordinator, and comparable t-tests or whatever across D-1 to see how useful the data are as far as predictors of defense per game.
BBDB?
Is that some new form of surrealist poetry statistic?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I think it’s a club in New York.
"Let me tell you a story. I was a political prisoner for two years. The instant I was released I ran to McDonald's. I had a Big Mac and a Coke.
It was fantastic."
-Toyama Koichi, US Presidential candidate from Japan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGZqOkeYbB0
by AERose on Nov 2, 2009 10:17 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
OSU’s rushing offense is quietly not doing that well. What happened to ’Quizz? Is the OSU line terrible or something?
Quizz is a big part of the passing game this year. I’m far too lazy to back that up with stats but trust me, as a guy who has watched every second of OSU football this year that he’s been catching a lot of short passes out of the backfield, making him a nice all purpose threat but not a crazy rush numbers back.
He’s second in catches with 49 and third in yardage with 371. For comparison, Quizz has more catches than Cal’s top two pass catchers (Marv and Best) combined. OSU’s been chucking it more than Cal and at a better completion percentage whereas Cal has more options to spread the ball around, but still, Mike Riley obviously believes he can use Quizz on every down and it looks like he’s right.
(Also btw Quizz is the second leader in the Pac-10 in rushing yardage, so he hasn’t disappeared though if you look at the rushing stats it’s wild that Rodgers provides 90% of Oregon State’s rushing yards whereas Best provides more like 60% of Cal’s ground offense. Interesting to see that through 8 games Cal is outrushing Oregon State by 500 yards and 1.5 ypc.)
"Let me tell you a story. I was a political prisoner for two years. The instant I was released I ran to McDonald's. I had a Big Mac and a Coke.
It was fantastic."
-Toyama Koichi, US Presidential candidate from Japan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGZqOkeYbB0
…it’s wild that Rodgers provides 90% of Oregon State’s rushing yards whereas Best provides more like 60% of Cal’s ground offense.
It’s a little worrisome for Beavers like me but it makes sense with your depth at RB. If we had a #2 punch like you guys we’d be able to mix it up a little bit too.
I didn’t know 115 YPG and 14 TDs was not doing well…
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Nov 4, 2009 10:26 AM PST up reply actions
east coast media bias....
and lack of highlight reel runs.
Go Bears Go
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Golden Bears Football Schedule
| Fresno St. | Sat 09/03 | W 36 - 21 |
@
Colorado
|
Sat 09/10 | W 36 - 33 |
| Presbyterian | Sat 09/17 | W 63 - 12 |
|
@
Washington
|
Sat 09/24 | L 23 - 31 |
|
@
Oregon
|
Thu 10/06 | L 15 - 43 |
|
USC
|
Thu 10/13 | L 9 - 30 |
|
Utah
|
Sat 10/22 | W 34 - 10 |
|
@
UCLA
|
Sat 10/29 | L 14 - 31 |
|
Washington St.
|
Sat 11/05 | W 30 - 7 |
|
Oregon St.
|
Sat 11/12 | W 23 - 6 |
|
@
Stanford
|
Sat 11/19 | L 28 - 31 |
|
@
Arizona St.
|
Fri 11/25 | W 47 - 38 |
|
@
Texas
|
Wed 12/28 | L 10 - 21 |
Pacific-12 Conference Standings
(updated 1.2.2012 at 11:12 PM PST)
| North | Conf | Overall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | W | L | |
|
Oregon Ducks
|
8 | 1 | 12 | 2 |
|
Stanford Cardinal
|
8 | 1 | 11 | 2 |
|
Washington Huskies
|
5 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
|
California Golden Bears
|
4 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
|
Oregon St. Beavers
|
3 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
|
Washington St. Cougars
|
2 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
| South | Conf | Overall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | W | L | |
|
USC Trojans
|
7 | 2 | 10 | 2 |
|
UCLA Bruins
|
5 | 4 | 6 | 8 |
|
Utah Utes
|
4 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
|
Arizona St. Sun Devils
|
4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|
Arizona Wildcats
|
2 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
|
Colorado Buffaloes
|
2 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
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