The Riley Effect
by calbears04 on Oct 6, 2009 5:38 PM PDT
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PrintHere is what I think most Cal fans are going through right now, when they advocate the removal of Riley for Sweeney or Mansion-"The Riley Effect". This phenomena is described as when a freshmen qb comes in a plays lights out for a game and outplays the incumbent qb. He then doesn't play much afterwards, but in limited time, displays flashes of brilliance.
This is what happened with Riley in 2007. He plays a great game in 2007 against OSU (minus the last minute), where he made plays happen with his scrambling ability, and his strong throwing arm. I was at the game, and saw him lead a near comeback against OSU. Riley then didn't play till the Armed Forces Bowl, where he jump started the offense and lead us to a bowl victory. This series of events characterizes the Riley Effect.
But why should Cal fans be wary of the Riley Effect? We have to look closer at 2007 and 2008-what changed? The WiRs did. Riley threw to two amazing WRs in 2007-D-Jax and the Hawk. I think these two receivers were good enought to cover up Riley's deficiencies (overthrowing the ball). Look at the first TD strike to D-Jax in the Armed Forces bowl by Riley-I bet you see Jackson make an adjustment on the ball for the catch...something that our current core of WRs aren't good at yet. So Riley's deficiencies were covered in 2007 by great WRs and only became evident during 2008 with a younger, inexperience crop of WRs.
So current Cal fans are under the Riley Effect when they advocate changing the incumbent for a promising, unknown qb. Here's why making any changes will not work-
I doubt that changing Riley for another QB is going to make a difference, as we don't have a great O-line and WRs that are in rhythm with the QB. Tedford should have let Riley play all last year to develop with the young WRs, but instead kept shortchanging our future by platooning him with Longshore (ugh). Now we are dealing with Riley's growing pains that he should have figured out during a rebuilding year in 2008....so we need to be patient with Riley and let him develop with this current crop of WRs. Yanking him will only cause him to regress more.
Go Bears!
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After rewatching some of the tape from the game, I do agree, the receivers have not been doing their job in gaining separation from their cover men. I might have to reconsider how bad Kevin has been; this might be a two-way street between both quarterback making some inaccurate throws, but also receivers being often lazy in their routes.
And it goes without saying about the pass protection. This O-line has been extremely disappointing in picking up rush off the edge.
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I agree. I think we need to give Riley more time, I mean those were too tough games against two tough teams. I think that even if we had to take these defeats again with the same game crushing scores, but they were a few games apart in the season we would not be as critical. But since they were back-to-back then – again, against teams perceived as being the cream of the crop – then we want that immediate change, that instant satisfaction of that New QB Hope. If we get rolling the rest of the season we’ll be able to look back and realize that we just hit a bump boulder in the road. Hopefully we can make the necessary changes.
You must be kidding. Riley can only complete passes if there is no defender with in 10 yrds of the receiver in any direction – and even then he misses an unnerving amount of times. How can you blame WRs when Riley has never hit a timing pattern in his entire life.
Riley can only complete passes if there is no defender with in 10 yrds of the receiver in any direction
You should watch a couple of deep passes he completed against Maryland and Minnesota.
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
Yeah, against wholly incompetent defenses. Look, we are in PacX play now. Memo: We aren’t playing pathetic teams anymore. What he did against those team means absolutely nothing. Longshore looked great against Minn in 2006. How did that work out? History has a penchant for repeating itself…
"Practice does not make perfect. Only perfect practice makes perfect."
Vince Lombardi
Longshore looked great against Minn in 2006. How did that work out?
Pretty well on the year. 60% completion, 8 yards per attempt, Holiday Bowl blowout and a mid-teen final ranking.
(That wasn’t the answer you were looking for, was it?)
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It was fantastic."
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGZqOkeYbB0
He wants an answer that involves Aaron Rodgers starting for us.
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by Avinash Kunnath on Oct 12, 2009 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Never blamed the WR’s, just saying Riley can do it, has shown flashes that he is capable of doing it.
by CaliforniaCMB on Oct 8, 2009 2:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Riley get’s the UCLA game to prove he can be a competent starter. Yes, receivers have not always helped, but neither has Riley always helped the receivers. It’s a two way street. I really want Kevin to do well, and I really hope he does against UCLA.
"Practice does not make perfect. Only perfect practice makes perfect."
Vince Lombardi
I dont care what anyone says, Riley is dead to me. He doesn’t have the mentality of a winning QB.
Joe Starkey...Scholar, Humanitarian, Cal legend, worst radio play by play man of all time.
I don’t care what anyone says, Riley is undead to me. He doesn’t have the mentality of a brain-craving zombie.
by Yes We Cannon on Oct 7, 2009 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
What in the world does “mentality of a winning QB” even mean? That the QB thinks “I want to win this game?” Do you think Riley just sits there thinking “God, I really don’t want to win this game. I just want to go home. I’m tired.”?
Act all day, dance all night. Let's get it poppin'... I'm in Bombay, trick!
This is a meaningless critique. I could say that Riley is dead to me because he has the personality of a spoiled socialite and it would have as much evidence.
If Riley is dead to you, it should be for actual reasons we can see, like inaccuracy or poor decision making.
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
Sure, that explains the overthrowing, but how do you explain his newfound tendency to hold onto the ball for 10x longer than he needs to, even when there are open receivers either downfield or in the flats?
Act all day, dance all night. Let's get it poppin'... I'm in Bombay, trick!
I’m pretty sure its because he doesn’t see the wide open receivers yet…
I think he is being a little too predetermined in his throwing, deciding who to go to and waiting too long to look for other guys… Which may be a major reason why our RBs catch so many balls…
Riley looks for one WR to get open throughout his route, instead of looking who has the potential to get open from the get go… When that first option doesn’t work, he checks down to the 80% of the time open guy, Shane or Best…
What I was noticing in the Packers/Vikings game on monday on what makes Favre really great is his ability to see how defenders are pre-snap and how they react right at the snap… This gives him the ability to anticipate who will be open in 10-15 yds…
Now I’m not saying Riley needs to be Favre here (cuz that aint gonna happen) but I’d like to see him develop the ability to read the DBs/LBs pre-snap and right at the snap, so he can scan the field easier and make the non-RB throw decision…
I’m not a QB, so what do I know, but it just seems like its “this guy is good at running this route, he’ll probably be open, snaps ball I’ll stand here and wait for him to be open, oh he’s not, well there’s Shane for 5 yds” instead of predicting from what he sees once at the line…
Then again a lot of it probably also comes from studying DBs tendencies prior to the game to know how they react in certain situations…
I hear El Paso is beautiful in December....
There were a few plays during the games where Riley saw an open receiver, put himself into the throwing motion towards that receiver, then decided to hold onto it, scramble around, then get sacked.
I’m not sure I understood that. Granted, I’ve never played football at that level, but it’s quite confusing.
Act all day, dance all night. Let's get it poppin'... I'm in Bombay, trick!
Good observation. This is in large part due to Riley just not getting rid of the ball on time. I attributed this tendency last year due to not knowing the playbook well enough and having confidence in the WRs to be in the right place at the right time. But in the SC game, I believe he didn’t want to turn the ball over again and knew how speedy the SC secondary is, hence the hesitation.
It seems to me that Riley is pressing a bit much. He’s trying too hard to make the perfect throw and to avoid any mistakes. In other words, when he gets the ball he is thinking too much instead of reacting. This takes too long and by the time his thinking is done, so is the potential for the play. Thus, there are forced throws, overthrows, or just bad throws.
The receivers are giving him no help, either. But then it’s hard to help your QB when the ball is almost always too far behind/above/ahead/below you.
Not to mention that he’s got big, ugly, angry, smelly, and (likely) psychotic linemen looking to turn him into a stain on the turf, and things end up bad.
Maybe Ludwig needs to treat Riley the way Norm Chow treats Craft/Prince down in Ucla. Short, easy, high-percentage throws.
On ATQ I'm known as JSoCal Oski
It's spelled J-etc
I’ve never got why we haven’t consistently run slants and short outs this year…
They are the ONLY passing plays that work for me in NCAA 10, and they work phenomenally (pretend Cal Bears are going for an NC this year in my world)…
It’s mind-boggling that with WRs that can’t get open deep (or aren’t being seen deep) and a QB that is throwing all over the place, that we don’t at least try these short yardage passing plays…
Not only do they set up the run well (CBs have to stay honest), but they set up long passing plays as DBs slough in to try and stop em…
They work against us every damn game right????
I hear El Paso is beautiful in December....
It’s a crapshoot whether or not Riley will put the ball on the money (receivers not having to break stride from their patterns to adjust catching the ball) and give the receivers a chance to make a play whenever he attempts a short pass. Consistency is a MUST on short passes, and Riley has struggled throughout his career with this.
I haven’t seen his inconsistency in the short passing game, mainly because I don’t remember seeing him throw short passes… Not that I’m arguing he has a lack of accuracy here, as that is very possible.
I have ZERO recollection of a single slant pattern thrown by Riley this year…
And in all honesty some of this complaint comes squarely out of me succeeding with this strategy in NCAA 10 (which, as a video game, lacks complete credibility) The way they tooled Riley in the game was down field passing is horrid, scrambling is ok, awareness is average and short passing is good… So take this whole argument with a grain of salt…
I just think if nothing down field in your passing game is working (Whether its accuracy, tight coverage, poor WR play) and you are hitting your TE consistently, you’ve got to have some openings in the short game that can be exploited… With WRs that are having a tough time getting open, I’d think it’d be less difficult for these guys to just say “all you gotta do here buddy is get inside that CB for a split second turn and catch”…
Whethe rit’ll work or not, its worth a shot, as Riley is looking like Masoli did the first 2-3 weeks of the season (sans the running ability)
I hear El Paso is beautiful in December....
Our receivers might not have the moves to run slant patterns. That’s the only reason I can see them not going for it.
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by Avinash Kunnath on Oct 7, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
This is true...
Like I said I base this assumption on my own success in a video game haha
And I see where they would not have developed this in the first three games where down field passing was working, and trying it for the first time against UO and U$C wouldn’t work out too well…
But it something that needs to be developed if Riley is planning on over/under throwing every pass beyond 10 yds for the rest of the season…
I hear El Paso is beautiful in December....
Didnt we run one to Marvin Jones against Oregon, but Riley threw it behind him?
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Wasn’t that an out pattern?
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by Avinash Kunnath on Oct 7, 2009 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions
They (slants and short outs) work against us every damn game right????
Funny. It dawned on me after Oregon that the Ducks had a pretty successful passing game plan for a QB who had some accuracy issues, and that maybe our coaches would do the same thing. Maybe they figured the Oregon game was an aberration for Riley, and that the first three games (with plenty of long vertical throws) were a better indicator of his ability. Hopefully that will change.
On ATQ I'm known as JSoCal Oski
It's spelled J-etc
But SoCal, Riley wasn’t just missing long, he was missing middle, short, and screen. The only throws he consistently completed were to Miller, away from coverage.
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by Avinash Kunnath on Oct 7, 2009 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Problems with the passing game:
1) Riley isn’t that good
2) The WRs aren’t that good
3) The offensive line isn’t that good
Combined, our ability to pass against good teams with good defenses is non-existent. Heaping all of the blame on one person when it’s a team effort is misguided, however.
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
I don’t think that’s the case. I think they’re good, they’re just not as good as Oregon and USC’s defenses were those Saturdays.
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by Avinash Kunnath on Oct 7, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions
I guess it’s a matter of expectations. We all expecting Riley, the WRs and the o-line to be of a certain ability level. They are not that good. Thus, compared to our expectations, they “aren’t that good.”
Of course, compared across the FBS division as a whole each unit is above average, particularly in regards to talent. But being better than Maryland, WSU and, potentially, other middling Pac-10 programs isn’t what we’re hoping for.
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
More on Riley
Let’s play devil’s advocate-how do we know anything would be any different with putting Sweeney in there? Would he be an actual improvement with the same core WR and decent O-Line? Did he do anything different than Riley in his mop-up time against EWU?
I think Riley’s confidence is fragile, especially after Tedford played head games with him last season. We have to give him the reins for the rest of the season and let him run with it, for better or for worse.
We have to give Sweeney the reins?
Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
by Avinash Kunnath on Oct 7, 2009 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Sweeney is No.2 in the rotation right now I believe. He leapfrogged over Mansion and played in the EW game….I remember reading a not that the Daily Cal made about that.
The truth is we don’t know if going to a different QB will change things. It could be disastrous or it could be a good thing. As much as I don’t want to have musical chairs at QB, we need a QB that can keep defenses honest. If that’’s Riley, great! If it’s Sweeney or Mansion, great! We have one of the Best offensive weapons in the country in the backfield and he’s been neutered the past 2 weeks because of our impotent passing game.
And if Riley’s confidence is that fragile, he needs to grow a pair or quite possibly, he’s just not cut out to be a BCS level QB. He has no excuses left.
I think changing QBs is just counterproductive. JT has to see something in practice that makes him want to start Sweeney.
The only way I see a change happening is if JT believes that Riley needs a mental break and needs to sit out a series to clear his head. I think he has to let Riley know that he has his confidence and shouldn’t haven’t to worry about looking over his shoulder.
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