Inside The Numbers: WSU Edition
by TwistNHook on Oct 22, 2009 3:00 AM PDT
in Football
38 comments
We've run an Inside The Numbers post for the following teams:
Maryland, EWU, Minnesota, and UCLA.
We haven't done it for the following teams:
Oregon and USC
With that in mind, LET'S RUN THE NUMBERS ON WASHINGTON STATE! Leave nothing to chance. NOTHING! In that vein, Avinash and myself take a few moments to look over some WSU numbers and see what conclusions we can draw. Enjoy the stats and add your thoughts after the jump. GO BEARS!
TwistNHook: First, let's take a look at their passing stats:
| Situation | G | Att | Comp | Pct. | Yards | Int | TD | Rating | Long | 1st | 15+ | 25+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Plays | 6 | 201 | 104 | 51.7 | 1143 | 10 | 5 | 97.77 | 99 | 47 | 24 | 8 |
| 1st Half | 6 | 102 | 49 | 48.0 | 464 | 6 | 1 | 77.72 | 33 | 21 | 10 | 3 |
| 2nd Half/OT | 6 | 99 | 55 | 55.6 | 679 | 4 | 4 | 118.43 | 99 | 26 | 14 | 5 |
| 1st Quarter | 6 | 39 | 18 | 46.2 | 169 | 3 | 0 | 67.17 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 1 |
| 2nd Quarter | 6 | 63 | 31 | 49.2 | 295 | 3 | 1 | 84.27 | 33 | 12 | 7 | 2 |
| 3rd Quarter | 5 | 33 | 18 | 54.5 | 288 | 2 | 2 | 135.74 | 47 | 10 | 6 | 3 |
| 4th Quarter | 6 | 65 | 37 | 56.9 | 391 | 2 | 2 | 111.45 | 99 | 16 | 8 | 2 |
Uh, I don't want to beat a dead horse here, but this ain't good. I realize that you can't beat a dead horse when it's the first comment you make, but let's be honest here. I have yet to even look at the rest of the stats and I kinda know how this one is going to go. Just take a look at their ratings. 77 in the first half! 77! In the NFL that is not very good. In college, that's horrific. Their numbers actually improve in the second half. Not great, but actually mediocre. This might be due to being down by a lot and the opponents playing softer coverage. I'm not entirely sure. What I do know is that 6-1 Int to TD ratio in the first half favors Cal. If we can get a few picks early in this game, we could get into a solid position to not have to worry too much about the second half.
Avinash:
Winning By 15+ Pts
0
0
0
-
0
0
0
-
0
0
0
0
Winning By 8-14 Pts
0
0
0
-
0
0
0
-
0
0
0
0
Winning By 1-7 Pts
0
0
0
-
0
0
0
-
0
0
0
0
Tied
3
11
5
45.5
34
1
0
53.24
13
2
0
0
Losing By 1-7 Pts
5
37
18
48.6
189
2
1
89.67
29
9
5
1
Losing By 8-14 Pts
5
36
18
50.0
160
1
0
81.77
22
8
5
0
Losing By 15+ Pts
6
117
63
53.8
760
6
4
109.44
99
28
14
7
"Both of these players unfortunately suffered career ending injuries at the end of this leap" via seattletimes.nwsource.com
Own 1 To 20 Yd Ln
3
7
5
71.4
130
0
1
274.57
99
3
3
1
Own 21 To 39 Yd Ln
2
15
7
46.7
50
0
0
74.67
17
3
1
0
Own 40 To Opp 40 Yd Ln
2
8
7
87.5
50
0
0
140.00
18
3
1
0
Opp 39 To 21 Yd Ln
2
11
6
54.5
67
2
1
99.35
23
2
1
0
Opp 20 To 1 Yd Ln (RZ)
1
5
1
20.0
11
1
0
-1.52
11
1
0
0
a)it would have been great to see him play
b)he was their best back, I believe.
Now, we have Dwight "Don't Be" Tardy "To The Party." Yes, I know that not only is that Bermanism truly heinous, but the fact that I know what "Don't Be Tardy To The Party" is means I should just turn in my Y chromosome right now.
| Situation | G | Att | Yards | Avg. | TD | Long | 1st | 10+ | 20+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Plays | 6 | 200 | 453 | 2.27 | 4 | 40 | 29 | 15 | 5 |
| 1st Half | 6 | 107 | 248 | 2.32 | 0 | 23 | 18 | 11 | 2 |
| 2nd Half/OT | 6 | 93 | 205 | 2.20 | 4 | 40 | 11 | 4 | 3 |
| 1st Quarter | 6 | 57 | 133 | 2.33 | 0 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 2 |
| 2nd Quarter | 6 | 50 | 115 | 2.30 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 0 |
| 3rd Quarter | 6 | 57 | 135 | 2.37 | 2 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| 4th Quarter | 6 | 34 | 67 | 1.97 | 2 | 40 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
From the guys who brought you terrible passing stats, we now have terrible rushing stats. Wow, this is bad. 2.27 yards per carry. The 1.97 yards per carry in the 4th is bad, but if you see they have much fewer attempts in the 4th. Most likely due to the fact that they are behind and throwing frantically to catch up. There's not really a lot you have to analyze here. Considering that we've generally held opposing RBs in check, save for anybody in a green and gold jersey and Joe McKnight from time to time, I feel fairly good at keeping Dwight Tardy under control.
| 1st Down | 6 | 91 | 314 | 3.45 | 0 | 40 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
| 2nd Down | 6 | 68 | 118 | 1.74 | 2 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 1 |
| 3rd Down | 6 | 36 | -10 | -0.28 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 3rd Down, 1-3 To Go | 6 | 11 | 27 | 2.45 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| 3rd Down, 4-6 To Go | 5 | 11 | -11 | -1.00 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3rd Down, 7-9 To Go | 2 | 3 | -6 | -2.00 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3rd Down, 10+ To Go | 4 | 11 | -20 | -1.82 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4th Down | 3 | 5 | 31 | 6.20 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
The answer is no. SURPRISE!
| Situation | G | Att | Comp | Pct. | Yards | Int | TD | Rating | Long | 1st | 15+ | 25+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Plays | 6 | 200 | 134 | 67.0 | 1739 | 7 | 10 | 149.54 | 73 | 67 | 34 | 17 |
| 1st Half | 6 | 103 | 74 | 71.8 | 1020 | 1 | 9 | 181.94 | 73 | 34 | 20 | 12 |
| 2nd Half/OT | 6 | 97 | 60 | 61.9 | 719 | 6 | 1 | 115.15 | 61 | 33 | 14 | 5 |
| 1st Quarter | 6 | 52 | 40 | 76.9 | 520 | 1 | 7 | 201.49 | 57 | 19 | 10 | 6 |
| 2nd Quarter | 6 | 51 | 34 | 66.7 | 500 | 0 | 2 | 161.96 | 73 | 15 | 10 | 6 |
| 3rd Quarter | 6 | 53 | 32 | 60.4 | 382 | 3 | 1 | 115.84 | 40 | 19 | 8 | 2 |
| 4th Quarter | 6 | 43 | 28 | 65.1 | 337 | 2 | 0 | 121.65 | 61 | 14 | 6 | 3 |
I like how they are giving up 67% of their passes with a rating of 149.54. That first quarter rating given up is absurd. 201! So, when the game is close (ostensibly) and their opponents are playing first string, they have a redick success rate. 201 is beyond insane. Hopefully, this will give Riley an opportunity to continue building confidence. He appears to be an emotional player. I say that not as an insult or even really a compliment, but what appears to be a statement of fact.
For example, after the interception against USC, he looked rattle for the rest of the game. But at UCLA, when he had some great success under his belt early, his confidence was sky high and his play never really dipped. Hopefully, Riley can take advantage of a weak opponent here and continue to build confidence from that UCLA game. I mean these numbers speak for themselves. 7 TDs allowed in the first quarter by the pass. That's just crazy.
| 1st Down | 6 | 98 | 70 | 71.4 | 921 | 4 | 3 | 152.31 | 61 | 35 | 18 | 8 |
| 2nd Down | 6 | 55 | 37 | 67.3 | 515 | 0 | 5 | 175.93 | 73 | 17 | 10 | 6 |
| 3rd Down | 6 | 43 | 25 | 58.1 | 249 | 3 | 2 | 108.18 | 40 | 13 | 4 | 1 |
| 3rd Down, 1-3 To Go | 5 | 12 | 6 | 50.0 | 69 | 1 | 1 | 109.13 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| 3rd Down, 4-6 To Go | 3 | 5 | 5 | 100.0 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 162.16 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 3rd Down, 7-9 To Go | 6 | 11 | 6 | 54.5 | 47 | 1 | 1 | 102.26 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 3rd Down, 10+ To Go | 6 | 15 | 8 | 53.3 | 96 | 1 | 0 | 93.76 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 4th Down | 3 | 4 | 2 | 50.0 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 163.40 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Own 20 To 1 Yd Ln (RZ) | 6 | 26 | 10 | 38.5 | 75 | 1 | 2 | 80.38 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Opp 1 To 20 Yd Ln | 5 | 17 | 11 | 64.7 | 119 | 0 | 0 | 123.51 | 36 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Opp 21 To 39 Yd Ln | 6 | 46 | 41 | 89.1 | 650 | 1 | 2 | 217.82 | 73 | 23 | 12 | 7 |
| Opp 40 To Own 40 Yd Ln | 6 | 59 | 35 | 59.3 | 436 | 3 | 2 | 122.42 | 57 | 19 | 5 | 4 |
| Own 39 To 21 Yd Ln | 6 | 52 | 37 | 71.2 | 459 | 2 | 4 | 162.99 | 29 | 18 | 14 | 5 |
| Situation | G | Att | Yards | Avg. | TD | Long | 1st | 10+ | 20+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Plays | 6 | 220 | 1199 | 5.45 | 17 | 53 | 60 | 37 | 12 |
| 1st Half | 6 | 108 | 638 | 5.91 | 12 | 44 | 36 | 22 | 7 |
| 2nd Half/OT | 6 | 112 | 561 | 5.01 | 5 | 53 | 24 | 15 | 5 |
| 1st Quarter | 6 | 46 | 296 | 6.43 | 5 | 31 | 16 | 10 | 5 |
| 2nd Quarter | 6 | 62 | 342 | 5.52 | 7 | 44 | 20 | 12 | 2 |
| 3rd Quarter | 6 | 44 | 231 | 5.25 | 1 | 53 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| 4th Quarter | 6 | 68 | 330 | 4.85 | 4 | 39 | 15 | 11 | 3 |
Ya. I kind of feel sorry for these guys. I mean giving up 6.43 yards per carry in the 1st quarter? That's just rough. Their best numbers is 4.85 and that is in the 4th when ostensibly the opponent is running out the clock and the D can key in on the run. Even when everybody KNOWS the WSU opponent is going to just be running, they still can't stop them.
I mean think about that average. That means that if in the 4th quarter when the opponent is trying to run out the clock, if they were to run on every play, they would slowly, but surely march down the field and score a TD. They'd get roughly 9 yards on the first 2 plays and then covert on the 3rd and short. So, even when the opponents try to not succeed, THEY STILL SUCCEED.
Honestly, this is a team where we need to focus on 2 things:
1. Keeping all of our players healthy.
2. Ensuring proper execution in game time situations.
The first is, by far, the most important.
| 1st Down | 6 | 108 | 558 | 5.17 | 10 | 53 | 15 | 17 | 4 |
| 2nd Down | 6 | 76 | 395 | 5.20 | 4 | 44 | 30 | 10 | 4 |
| 3rd Down | 6 | 29 | 178 | 6.14 | 1 | 31 | 10 | 8 | 2 |
| 3rd Down, 1-3 To Go | 5 | 15 | 94 | 6.27 | 0 | 30 | 8 | 5 | 1 |
| 3rd Down, 4-6 To Go | 4 | 5 | 10 | 2.00 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 3rd Down, 7-9 To Go | 4 | 5 | 56 | 11.20 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 3rd Down, 10+ To Go | 3 | 4 | 18 | 4.50 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 4th Down | 4 | 7 | 68 | 9.71 | 2 | 39 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
0 recs |
38 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
thanks for the breakdown!
Omg. This could get ugly.
Go Bears Go
by Rocksanddirt on Oct 22, 2009 7:43 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
You know, I don’t mean to get personal, mean, petty, or anything — and this is not a reflection on Paul Wulff as a man, coach, person, citizen, savior, or anything else — but I just can’t stop thinking his head looks like a potato.
On ATQ I'm known as JSoCal Oski
It's spelled J-etc
Wow, I feel bad for Wazzou after reading this.
Maybe we can make the game more exciting by flipping a coin beforehand and agreeing to only run the ball all game (heads) or only pass all game (tails)?
dboneisloose
We feel sorry for us, too
I’d like to know who thought they were being funny by voting for “big loss for Cal”
by Jeff Nusser on Oct 22, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions
By the way
After last night’s podcast, I’m guessing “close loss for Cal” is you, Twist.
by Jeff Nusser on Oct 22, 2009 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions
After last night, I’m trying to change my views on things. I’m working towards being “arrogant” about “expected success.” So, I voted for “big win” to start things going in the right direction. I immediately felt dirty and took another shower. But the dirt did not come on.
President Emperor Warlord Of The Sun!
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
1985 – Cal v. Washington State. Cal was leading 19-0 with seven minutes to go in the fourth quarter. We lost 20-19. A Cal fan can never be arrogant about expected success.
Plus, their little WSU/Cougar symbol is very cute, especially the little whiskers. They could get points just for that.
I had no idea the letters “W” and “S” were actually in that logo. Learn something new every day.
"Let me tell you a story. I was a political prisoner for two years. The instant I was released I ran to McDonald's. I had a Big Mac and a Coke.
It was fantastic."
-Toyama Koichi, US Presidential candidate from Japan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGZqOkeYbB0
For the longest time I thought the logo was “WC” for Washington (state) Cougars. I had never noticed the whiskers, though.
Whose domicile? OUR DOMICILE!
by Berkelium97 on Oct 22, 2009 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. I like the logos of TCU, Memphis, Cincinnati, LA Tech, and WSU. I do agree with the assessment of Toledo’s.
RTT thinks ours is just “boring.”
Praise be to Tedford!
Some people don’t understand class.
"Let me tell you a story. I was a political prisoner for two years. The instant I was released I ran to McDonald's. I had a Big Mac and a Coke.
It was fantastic."
-Toyama Koichi, US Presidential candidate from Japan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGZqOkeYbB0
People who go around dressed in putrid orange have no business criticizing anybody. But I have to agree about the horned frog.
but it spits blood! from its eyes!
Go Bears Go
by Rocksanddirt on Oct 22, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions
In all sincerity, though, the defensive stats have been skewed a little bit
While six games is half the season, it’s still a pretty small sample size. The Hawaii and Oregon games were so horrifically bad that they make everything look a lot worse than it otherwise would have been.
Don’t get me wrong. We’re still bad. Just maybe not as bad as these numbers suggest.
by Jeff Nusser on Oct 22, 2009 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
isn’t saying half the season is too small a sample size like saying 150 million people is too small a sample size to characterize the U.S. population
No. Sample size is dependent on the number of data points in the subset, not what percentage of the entire population the subset comprises.
In other words, it’s too small a sample size because it’s 6, not because it’s half the season.
dboneisloose
by HolmoePhobe on Oct 22, 2009 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
the challenge, and i don't know if anyone has
is to look at the standard deviation in the numbers. if it’s large, then moar games needed! if it’s small…then….ouch…they blow.
Go Bears Go
by Rocksanddirt on Oct 22, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions
This is what I came up with
http://www.cougcenter.com/2009/10/15/1084438/is-the-defense-really-better
You’ll notice that two games were way, way out of control this year. But again, if you look at the same 6-game sample size from the first half of last year, you’d have to conclude that our defense wasn’t that bad, actually playing reasonably OK in about half the games. It was only as we got up through more games that we knew what we truly had on our hands …
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on California Golden Blogs
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
