How Will Cal Perform in the Final Seven Games of 2009?
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The number seven is supposed to be a lucky number (it actually is defined as a lucky prime). There are Seven Lucky Gods of good fortune in Japanese mythology, seven heavens in Islam, seven days of creation, and Seven wonders of the World. Add in The Seven Samurai, 007, seven hills of Rome, Game 7, The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People, etc. etc.
It all adds up--seven is usually a good thing. Well, except for maybe 7th Heaven.
Seven has popped up here and there during Jeff Tedford's time at Cal, but it hasn't always been of the fortunate type. The Bears won seven games in Tedford's first season. They've had winning seasons in his seven seasons at Cal. He's produced seven straight 1000 yard rushers. Two seasons of Cal going 7-0 at home.
On the flip side though, seven has also been a curse for us. The Bears needed and couldn't get the seven points to win games in LA in 2004 and Tucson in 2006, wins that would probably have clinched BCS berths and put the program over the top. The Bears have lost seven of eight Pac-10 games on the road (that one win coming against the worst team of the decade). And it was those final, dreadful seven games of 2007 that left Cal fans reeling and Tedford scratching his head.
Now, again like in 2007, we have seven games left in the regular season. As we hesitantly get back to the football grind, we all wonder, how will the Bears perform after our last two defeats? Who do you think are the toughest opponents we'll face? Other than Wazzu, who do you think we'll pounce on? Will seven grant us luck this time or hit us with another curse?
After the jump, a quick hit look at our remaining seven opponents, and the strengths and weaknesses of each. If you want, use that info to help guide your thoughts in the comments.
Keep in mind my forecasts are just assessing my own ridiculous probabilities I just came up with on the fly, I'm not picking who's winning.
UCLA
Strengths: Perhaps the second best secondary in the Pac-10 besides USC, giving up only 162 yards per game through the air (13th in the nation), as well as allowing only 5.7 yards per attempt and a 52% completion rate (both top 20 national rankings). Not too shabby in rushing defense (32nd in rushing YPA) and scoring defense (25th in PPG), and they're 21st in 3rd down conversion defense. I'll go out on a limb and say this team's strength is defense.
Weaknesses: Can't run the ball (100th in the nation in yards per game, 102nd in yards per carry), can't pass the ball far (104th in passing yards per game, 105th in passer rating, 100th in pasing yards per attempt), thus can't move the ball much (107th in total yards per play, 114th in total yards per game); can't convert third downs (103rd), thus doesn't pick up many 1st downs (107th); can't put the ball in the end zone (last in the country with 9 touchdowns and 104th in the nation in overall points per game). I'll go out on a limb and say this team's weakness is offense.
Washington State
via www.coug.com
Strengths: They have eleven players who can start on offense and defense.
Weaknesses: It's the same answer to the number of digits of pi.
Arizona State
Strengths: Could be your sleeper Pac-10 defense of the season. Vontaze Burfict could be the most talented linebacker in the conference...as a freshman.
The Sun Devils have only allowed 50 rushing yards per game, second to only Texas. Jacquizz Rodgers barely broke 80 yards on them. They've allowed 11.8 first downs, first in the country. They've forced 15 sacks, third in the conference behind Oregon and USC, and 44 tackles for loss (9th in the country). They've also gotten 11 interceptions, 3rd in the country. In other words, they look just like UCLA's defense--testy and formdiable.
The Sun Devil rushing game has also improved from horrendous to average, which helps them keep the ball moving. Running and defense; two key ingredients to a usually solid Pac-10 team. Add in Halloween in Tempe and I'm fairly spooked about this one. If their defense just needs to force mistakes and give their offense a short field to work with, look out.
Weaknesses: Still not sure how much the stats mean, since they've played Idaho State, Louisiana Monroe and Wazzu. We'll probably get a better idea after they play Locker and Luck these next two weeks. Still, going into Georgia and nearly knocking off the 3-3 "I just got curbstomped by Lane Kiffin" Bulldogs has to count for something, right? Um, right?
Meanwhile, while the running game has gone up, their passing game has regressed even further. Their quarterback play from Danny Sullivan is in the lower tier of the Pac-10, placed in the bottom 15 of passer rating, the bottom 20 of passing yards per attempt, and the bottom 25 of completion percentage nationwide. We might be seeing Brock Osweiler in this game if Sullivan's struggles persist.
It'll be up to Cal's defense to make sure these trends continue, no matter who's in the game..
Oregon State
via a.espncdn.com (photo by Don Ryan)
Strengths: Surprisingly, the Beavers pass attack has been one of the best in the Pac-10, being first in yards per game and first in completion percentage, with Sean Canfield completing at a two-thirds clip. When they get to the red zone, they're 23 for 24 in scores, and tops in the conference with 17 red zone scores. Their rushing defense is in the top 20 of the country, holding Gerhart to absolutely nothing. Oh yeah, and we haven't beaten them at home since Tedford got here. That's always a nice psychological edge.
Weaknesses: Canfield's success has come despite enormous struggles in pass protection, with the Beavers O-line already having given up 19 sacks. They depend heavily on the Rodgers brothers, who have almost three-fourths of Oregon State's all-purpose yardage; if either of them get injured, their offense becomes something that amounts to less than one-dimensional, if not quite zero-dimensional (how many times can they run an inside zone with Quizz or a fly sweep with James?).
Their pass defense, usually stout, is a trouble spot, currently fourth to last in the conference in passing yards per game. And when they let opponents into the red zone, they usually give up touchdowns (fourth to last in the country). Oregon State technically is a weaker squad than their Rose Bowl-contending team from last season. Naturally, this game terrifies the hell out of me.
Arizona
Strengths: Their offense hasn't missed a beat with Willie Tuitama now taking orders in Tucson; even though they don't run the ball much, their rushing YPC is 9th in the country and they pile up 194 YPG. Their passing game has become amazingly efficient under Nick Foles; they've completed 66% of their passes (19th in the country), but Foles is even better than that, completing nearly 72% of his throws. Their defense isn't too bad either; they give up a lot of completions, but their pass defense is 31st in yards per game and run defense is 20th. The Wildcats have put up great fights on the road against Oregon State and Washington, had a great shot at going 2-0, and could very well be the third or fourth best team in the conference.
I expect this to be a very difficult game, especially if Sonny Dykes is able to gameplan the Airraid offense well enough to pick apart the zone coverage Cal offers. It'll be up to the Golden Bear offense to match it up, but the Wildcat defense definitely looks solid itself.
Weaknesses: As shown in the UDub game, when Arizona gets into the red zone they can struggle to punch it in. They're 81st in the country in scoring touchdowns in the red zone.
Despite the defense refusing to give up the tons of yards, they're 92nd in the country in 3rd down defense. Even worse, they're next to last in allowing touchdowns in the red zone, giving up six 84% of the time. The good news for them is that they don't allow defenses into the red zone that much.
Furd
Strengths: They're the best power running team in the conference behind the White Stallion. Toby Gerhart has the Cardinal paced at 8th in YPA and 13th in rushing yards per game. Their offensive line is pretty good in pass and running situations having given up only 4 sacks this year (T-7th in the nation), and 21 tackles for loss allowed (T-13th). Also, they have the deadliest kickoff returner in the country in Chris Owusu. I'd be very happy if Alamar opts to kick the ball out of bounds after every Cal score. Cal's run D (which has been pretty good) should face its stiffest test of the season here.
Weaknesses: I think I overrated Andrew Luck a tad. Although his passer rating's around 140 and averaging a solid 8.5 YPA, he throws the least out of anyone in the conference, and his completion percentage is still under 57 percent. We saw what happened when the Furd could not run the ball. Also, the jury is out on their defense, especially after getting chewed up by Oregon State in that first half; they will definitely be put to the test against a fierce Arizona offense this week. Jahvid Best ran all over them last season; can he do it at the Farm?
Washington
Strengths: Jake Locker is finally becoming a great passer. Well, sort of--he's still not very accurate, hovering around 57%. However, he's making the throws that count, and it's reflected on one crucial stat--3rd down conversions, where the Huskies are 5th in the country. If you remember that USC game, Locker made some critical 1st downs on 3rd and long situations, and he did the same against Arizona. In 3rd down situations, the passing offense has picked up 30 first downs, 3rd in the country. Considering how porous Cal's zones have been this season, this is definitely a worrisome spot.
Weaknesses: Locker's transcendence hides a lot of weaknesses in this Washington team. The Huskies cannot run the ball (80th in YPA, 93rd in YPG), and most of the running yards come from Locker. Their defense, after an incredible performance against USC, has regressed to 90th in scoring D, 82nd in rushing D YPG, 105th in rushing D YPC, 102nd in passing D YPG, 111th in completion rate D, 113th in passing D YPA...safe to say Nick Holt's unit has a ways to go.
Still, I have too much respect for Locker to give the Bears overwhelming odds to win ths one. Add in what figures to be inclement weather and this final game should be a blast.
0 recs |
58 comments
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Comments
I voted 6-1. This is the easy part of the schedule, the Bears need to take care of business and avoid let ups. I expect Cal to be favored in every game – the Oregon State game is the closest to evenly matched I’d say. AU not having Gronk is huge, we all know Cal’s struggles with TE’s over the middle of the field. All in all, even the best teams rarely win ‘em all, so I see Cal losing 1 or 2 games, but I’m feeling good today so….1 it is!
For all of the gnashing of the teeth around here, the poll results are remarkably positive.
President Emperor Warlord Of The Sun!
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
Indeed.
I wonder if the two people who voted for 0-7 are aware that Washington State is still on the upcoming schedule.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
I really... REALLY wanted to vote 7-0.
Seeing as that’s completely unreachable in our state shown in our last two games, I voted 5-2. Hopefully I’m wrong and the bye week gave our players something to fight for.
"Today's weather, excessively violent with a chance of dismemberment. Tune in later for our 5-day forecast!"
~ Three Dog - Fallout 3
Seeing as that’s completely unreachable in our state shown in our last two games, I voted 5-2. Hopefully I’m wrong and the bye week gave our players something to fight for.
Now, I don’t know if Cal is going to go 7-0 or not. What I do know is it’s college football, and shit happens, and with a team like Cal going 7-0 after the last couple weeks really wouldn’t be all that unusual/surprising. Like I said, it’s college football…
by Missing Barry on Oct 15, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions
obviously nothing’s guaranteed, and anythingbut at this point the only teams i think we should have no trouble beating are wazzu and arizona. i think we should beat ASU as well, but they supposedly have a good defense that might make it more difficult.
outside of wazzu and the AZ schools, though, i can easily envision any of the other teams beating us. stanford, oregon state, ucla, washington… they’re all decent enough to beat us on any given day. will we go 0-4 against them? hopefully not, but at this point i wouldn’t be shocked.
weird
a few words got cut off. that first line should read “and anything can happen, but at this point…”
by atomsareenough on Oct 15, 2009 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions
10-2 and a Sugar Bowl berth. How’s that for positive, bitches?!
"You are the Tim Tebow of angry articulation!" - TwistNHook
by Maisbikkja on Oct 15, 2009 1:49 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
maybe i’ll start feeling a bit more positive about the season again when i see the bears score another touchdown. it feels like i’m in touchdown withdrawal.
by atomsareenough on Oct 15, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m proud to say I’ve been touchdown-free for almost a month now. The first two weeks were the hardest, with the shakes and the anger and the screaming and the yelling and the wanting of the touchdowns, but lately I’ve been totally clean and getting my highs from life now instead of that fleeting moment of joy when that perfect… pass… makes it… into the endzone… OH WHO AM I KIDDING I GOTTA HAVE ME SOME TOUCHDOWN!!! NO, LET ME GO!! I NEEEED IT!! YOU DON’T KNOW HOW IT FEELS!!! You don’t understand! You can’t understand! Noooooo… what’s tha… the neeedle… no… I gotta go bears… must… go bears… it’s not bedti… yet….. zzzz
by trisweb on Oct 15, 2009 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
I voted 3-4
Maybe it’s the scars of the Holmoe era and 2007 clouding my perception, but based on the past two weeks, that’s about as optimistic as I can get right now. Here’s how I see the rest of the season playing out based on my feeble knowledge of football and prophetic dreams:
@ UCLA = L (or W and L Arizona)
Wazzu = W
ASU = W
OSU = L
Arizona = W (or L and W UCLA)
stanfurd = L
Udub = L
Cal Football: It could happen!
yup
those are more or less my sentiments exactly, except sub ASU for arizona in your scenario.
by atomsareenough on Oct 15, 2009 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions
This, except I think we’ll beat OSU.
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. What happens in California makes the world go round.
by Spazzy Mcgee on Oct 15, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions
they’ve beaten us twice in a row, and 3 out of the last 4 years. why do you think we’ll beat them this time?
by atomsareenough on Oct 15, 2009 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Their lines are more inexperienced than ours, they lost a lot of their good D, and we play a lot better at home.
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. What happens in California makes the world go round.
by Spazzy Mcgee on Oct 15, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Prior to 3 weeks ago, we had beaten Oregon 4/5 years and three times in a row bee tee dubloons.
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. What happens in California makes the world go round.
by Spazzy Mcgee on Oct 15, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions
yeah, but...
that doesn’t matter because we’re cal. if a trend is in our favor, that just means it’s ripe for reversal, and if a trend is negative, then it naturally portends doom. :)
by atomsareenough on Oct 15, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions
It has been a while since WSU won in Berkeley!
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. What happens in California makes the world go round.
by Spazzy Mcgee on Oct 15, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
that's the spirit!
expect the worst, accept the best.
by atomsareenough on Oct 15, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions
oops, forgot to put the @’s on the rest of the away games:
@ UCLA
@ ASU
@ stanfurd
@ Udub
Cal Football: It could happen!
by CalBandGreat on Oct 15, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions
You really think Washington and Stanford are better than Cal? Man I can’t wait to start getting these easier games under Cal’s belt (a la Stanford)….playing easy games seems to have a pretty big effect on perceptions….
by Missing Barry on Oct 15, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions
No, I don’t think they’re better than Cal, but I think we’ll lose!
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. What happens in California makes the world go round.
by Spazzy Mcgee on Oct 15, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
There seems to be so much more negativity from the commentators than from the polls. I think it’s interesting…
by Missing Barry on Oct 15, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
It’s an interesting phenomenon, although there’s probably a lot of mock doom and gloom going on here than at other Cal sites, where they’re utterly serious.
Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
My vote was my legitimate feelings based on our season so far. If we blow out UCLA, then my vote will change significantly.
Just a little peak into the CalBandGreat mindscape.
Beetdub, I’m still driving down to LA tomorrow and Going Bears! big time this weekend.
Cal Football: It could happen!
by CalBandGreat on Oct 15, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Dude, DUDE. Look at our friggin track record against decent teams on the road that we “should” win!!!! Why am I supposed to be all like “DUHHHH WE’LL KICK THEIR ARSES” or risk being called a negative commentator.
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. What happens in California makes the world go round.
by Spazzy Mcgee on Oct 15, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Well a loss is a negative thing. If you predict a loss, I think by definition that makes you a negative commentator…right?
by Missing Barry on Oct 15, 2009 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions
True, yes, maybe I just don’t like the idea that my post is chosen as the example of negative commentating when just about everything on BI is a) a hundred times more inflammatory and b) more negative
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. What happens in California makes the world go round.
by Spazzy Mcgee on Oct 15, 2009 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t think Spazzy is trying to be negative. He’s taking past data (Cal has lost ten of their last eleven Pac-10 road games) and using that as a guiding point to the result he expects. Negativity would be saying “our team has no heart and leadership, and we’re going against a team that actually believes in themselves.”
Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
This.
My predictions are based on that too. I think we can eek out a win against ASU on the road this year, but that’s it. OK, and maybe at the Rose Bowl this weekend.
Cal Football: It could happen!
by CalBandGreat on Oct 15, 2009 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions
zactly, thank you.
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. What happens in California makes the world go round.
by Spazzy Mcgee on Oct 15, 2009 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Geez, so defensive. I wasn’t being critical or saying you’re being unreasonable or anything (and it wasn’t really directed at any individual to begin with), just noting that the collective group of commentators is less optimistic about the rest of the season than the 56% of the voters who think Cal is going to go 6-1 or 7-0 for the rest of the season (with another 20% at 5-2)…
by Missing Barry on Oct 15, 2009 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions
What Spazzy said. I didn’t think anyone in the Pac-10 was better than Cal in 07 save USC, but that didn’t seem to work out that well.
Cal Football: It could happen!
by CalBandGreat on Oct 15, 2009 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Also, we’re talking about a team that hasn’t scored a touchdown in its last two games. Washington scored a touchdown against USC AND beat ’em too. Hell Wazzu scored a touchdown (albeit garbagetime) against them.
Cal Football: It could happen!
by CalBandGreat on Oct 15, 2009 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions
We shouldn’t ignore that Aaron Corp stinks and that Kevin Riley had the worst game of his life. He’s not going to keep on having the worst game of his life every week…
Right?
Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
Sure, whatever helps you sleep at night. :-p
I dunno, I’m trying not to get my hopes up as to not have my soul crushed at the end of the season. That’s my coping mechanism.
Cal Football: It could happen!
by CalBandGreat on Oct 15, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions
2-5
doesn’t matter what two.
we have not played with enough consistency to beat most pac 10 teams, except ones that are falling apart. there will be two.
Go Bears Go
2-5? Really? That’s just not even the least bit rational of an expectation. We’re 2-2 against BCS conference teams so far this season, if you haven’t noticed….
by Missing Barry on Oct 15, 2009 6:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Maryland is in implosion mode and Minnesota is alright, so after the last two losses this isn’t the most unreasonable expectation.
Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
2-5? Really? Maryland might be comparable to WSU…but we still get to play WSU, so we should be alright there. That leaves 6 games to win more than once. We beat a decent, though definitely not great, Minnesota team on the road already. We clearly aren’t awful. 1-5 against non-WSU is just a ridiculous expectation to have. We still get to play Stanford. We get to play UW. We get to play the Arizona’s. We get to play UCLA….I don’t know exactly how many, but there are definitely multiple wins in there somewhere.
by Missing Barry on Oct 15, 2009 7:15 PM PDT up reply actions
That Cal team in 2007 lost four games it was favored to win, three it was favored to win by double digits. While we’re not exactly as weak as we were that season, we have uncertainties that can throw projections of how good we are to the wind. If we don’t resolve those uncertainties, given the way we’ve lost the last two, there are plenty of scenarios in play for the direction our season takes.
Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
And I’m not even saying it’s out of the realm of possibility, just that it’s on the very unlikely side of things…
by Missing Barry on Oct 16, 2009 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Fair enough. It’s probably unlikely, but not out of the question.
As to the negativity, I don’t make predictions, but I can see why people are being pessimistic. It’s the natural human coping mechanism to getting trashed two games in a row after being #6 in the country.
Email: bearsnecessities@gmail.com
we've beaten a I-AA FCS team, someone on the way to wazzu last year terrible,
and a big 10 team.
in those games, we made the same mistakes we made at Oregon and $c, but our superior talent won out. No team left (‘cept maybe wazzou) is of the same talent level as the teams we’ve beaten.
We have dropped td passes, wiffed on blocks, fallen down with an open field in front of us, over thrown passes, missed easy tackles, had stupid penalties, fumbled stupidly, and generally not been efficient and crisp and a good team.
Go Bears Go
by Rocksanddirt on Oct 16, 2009 12:12 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, basically. Rec’d.
I voted 3-4 and that’s assuming we win a couple road games (which we haven’t seemed to be able to do). Until I see us dominate someone at their domicile ala 2004 style, I never assume a road win.
Cal Football: It could happen!
by CalBandGreat on Oct 16, 2009 12:32 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd be very surprized if we win a road game, except big game.
and that will be due to not being bowl eligible, and so it’s the end of the season.
Go Bears Go
by Rocksanddirt on Oct 16, 2009 12:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Some of those points might be true, but you really think the 6 non-WSU teams on our schedule are all better than Minnesota by a meaningful amount? Not enough games have been played for me to know exactly where I think Minnesota would fall in those 6 teams, but the only one I’m confident will be better than Minnesota is OSU…
by Missing Barry on Oct 16, 2009 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions


























