Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics
In the wake of the Pac-10’s horrible, terrible, no good, very bad day only one thing is certain: Pac-10 teams should never schedule a road game again. Ever. Some (probably after taking out their ‘Jump to Conclusions’ mat) have taken this opportunity to declare their certainty the Pac-10 is actually the ‘Pac-1.’
Ladies and gentleman of the Sports Blog Nation, these are lies – nay – damn lies! And The National Championship Issue has the statistics to prove it...
...In table 1, we see the Pac-10's record against all the other conferences from 1998 through the end of the 2007 season. (All credit must go to The National Championship Issue for compiling this data.)
| Pac10 vs | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC | Big10 | Big12 | Big East | SEC | CUSA | MAC | Mtn West | Sun Belt | WAC | Big West | BCS | non | I-AA | Total | |
| 1998 | 1-1 | 4-1 | 4-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 6-4 | 6-0 | 9-6 | 14-4 | 0-0 | 23-10 | ||
| 1999 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 7-2 | 3-2 | 4-8 | 11-8 | 1-0 | 16-16 | |
| 2000 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8-0 | 3-2 | 4-1 | 9-5 | 15-3 | 1-0 | 25-8 | |
| 2001 | 0-1 | 4-1 | 2-2 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 5-0 | 4-1 | 9-5 | 13-3 | 2-0 | 24-8 | |
| 2002 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 7-1 | 5-0 | 5-0 | 8-13 | 18-1 | 5-0 | 31-14 | |
| 2003 | 1-0 | 5-4 | 2-3 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5-3 | 4-0 | 5-3 | 11-8 | 15-7 | 2-0 | 28-15 | |
| 2004 | 1-0 | 4-2 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 7-2 | 3-0 | 3-2 | 6-7 | 14-4 | 1-0 | 21-11 | |
| 2005 | 0-0 | 3-1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 8-0 | 6-5 | 12-2 | 5-1 | 23-8 | |
| 2006 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 6-1 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 7-3 | 9-5 | 10-4 | 5-0 | 24-9 | |
| 2007 | 1-0 | 2-2 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 6-5 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 8-4 | 14-6 | 2-0 | 24-10 | |
| Totals | 4-6 | 30-23 | 27-24 | 9-7 | 9-6 | 8-1 | 1-0 | 42-20 | 17-0 | 55-18 | 13-3 | 79-66 | 136-42 | 24-1 | 239-109 |
Damn it feels good to be a gangster. Note that the only other conferences to hold a .500 or better record against other BCS schools are the SEC, and the Big Ten. (The ACC is even and the Big XII is 4 games under .500. The Big East on the other hand, is getting lapped.) Their conference records are as follows:
| SEC vs | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC | Big10 | Big12 | Big East | Pac10 | CUSA | MAC | Mtn West | Sun Belt | WAC | Big West | BCS | non | I-AA | Total | |
| 1998 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 7-0 | 2-2 | 4-1 | 1-0 | 7-9 | 14-3 | 3-0 | 24-12 | ||
| 1999 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6-3 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 7-8 | 15-3 | 3-0 | 25-11 | |
| 2000 | 4-3 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 5-3 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 7-8 | 15-5 | 4-0 | 26-13 | |
| 2001 | 5-1 | 3-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 5-1 | 3-0 | 1-1 | 5-1 | 3-0 | 10-6 | 17-3 | 4-0 | 31-9 | |
| 2002 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 0-2 | 5-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 11-1 | 3-0 | 9-15 | 22-1 | 5-0 | 36-16 | |
| 2003 | 4-5 | 3-1 | 4-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 5-5 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 8-0 | 4-1 | 13-11 | 19-7 | 5-0 | 37-18 | |
| 2004 | 3-2 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 3-3 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 9-0 | 2-0 | 7-6 | 17-5 | 4-1 | 28-12 | |
| 2005 | 4-2 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 6-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 5-1 | 3-0 | 7-8 | 16-3 | 7-0 | 30-11 | |
| 2006 | 7-1 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0-2 | 3-1 | 10-1 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 8-0 | 3-0 | 13-9 | 24-1 | 8-0 | 45-10 | |
| 2007 | 6-3 | 2-1 | 3-2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 7-0 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 11-1 | 4-0 | 12-9 | 25-1 | 10-0 | 47-10 | |
| Totals | 41-30 | 19-17 | 18-16 | 8-17 | 6-9 | 59-17 | 22-5 | 9-4 | 57-4 | 28-2 | 9-0 | 92-89 | 184-32 | 53-1 | 329-122 |
| Big10 vs | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC | Big12 | Big East | Pac10 | SEC | CUSA | MAC | Mtn West | Sun Belt | WAC | Big West | BCS | non | I-AA | Total | |
| 1998 | 0-1 | 3-1 | 2-1 | 1-4 | 2-1 | 4-1 | 7-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 | 8-8 | 18-2 | 1-0 | 27-10 | ||
| 1999 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 3-1 | 4-1 | 2-2 | 2-1 | 8-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 12-7 | 14-2 | 2-0 | 28-9 | |
| 2000 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 4-3 | 1-2 | 2-0 | 7-3 | 1-0 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 8-12 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 21-16 | |
| 2001 | 2-2 | 2-1 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 8-2 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 6-11 | 15-4 | 2-0 | 23-15 | |
| 2002 | 2-1 | 3-2 | 2-0 | 4-2 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 11-0 | 2-2 | 2-0 | 4-1 | 13-7 | 20-5 | 3-0 | 36-12 | |
| 2003 | 4-0 | 3-3 | 3-1 | 4-5 | 1-3 | 1-0 | 8-3 | 1-2 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 15-12 | 12-6 | 2-0 | 29-18 | |
| 2004 | 1-0 | 3-1 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 11-0 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 9-9 | 15-3 | 2-0 | 26-12 | |
| 2005 | 2-1 | 0-3 | 3-0 | 1-3 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 11-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 8-8 | 18-0 | 2-0 | 28-8 | |
| 2006 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3-3 | 0-2 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 16-1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8-9 | 18-3 | 6-2 | 32-14 | |
| 2007 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 1-0 | 17-2 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 7-9 | 21-3 | 6-2 | 34-14 | |
| Totals | 14-11 | 20-22 | 20-10 | 23-30 | 17-19 | 16-5 | 104-12 | 14-5 | 6-1 | 23-9 | 1-0 | 94-92 | 164-32 | 26-4 | 284-128 |
| ACC vs | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big10 | Big12 | Big East | Pac10 | SEC | CUSA | MAC | Mtn West | Sun Belt | WAC | Big West | BCS | non | I-AA | Totals | |
| 1998 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 5-4 | 1-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 12-9 | 4-2 | 3-1 | 19-12 | ||
| 1999 | 1-2 | 1-0 | 5-3 | 1-0 | 4-2 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12-7 | 4-4 | 2-1 | 18-12 | |
| 2000 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 8-10 | 6-2 | 2-1 | 16-13 | |
| 2001 | 2-2 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 1-0 | 1-5 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-1 | 7-12 | 9-1 | 4-0 | 20-13 | |
| 2002 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3-2 | 2-0 | 5-3 | 2-2 | 4-2 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 13-9 | 9-6 | 3-0 | 25-15 | |
| 2003 | 0-4 | 3-0 | 5-3 | 0-1 | 5-4 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 13-12 | 7-2 | 4-0 | 24-14 | |
| 2004 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 9-3 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 5-1 | 3-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 11-9 | 10-3 | 6-0 | 27-12 | |
| 2005 | 1-2 | 3-1 | 7-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3-1 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 13-9 | 10-2 | 3-0 | 26-11 | |
| 2006 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 3-7 | 1-0 | 1-7 | 3-3 | 4-2 | 2-0 | 6-0 | 2-0 | 6-14 | 17-5 | 8-1 | 31-20 | |
| 2007 | 2-0 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 4-2 | 3-0 | 0-1 | 4-0 | 0-1 | 11-15 | 11-4 | 7-0 | 29-19 | |
| Totals | 11-14 | 13-12 | 46-35 | 6-4 | 30-41 | 25-13 | 25-7 | 8-6 | 13-0 | 14-5 | 2-0 | 106-106 | 87-31 | 42-4 | 235-141 |
| BigEast vs | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC | Big10 | Big12 | Pac10 | SEC | CUSA | MAC | Mtn West | Sun Belt | WAC | Big West | BCS | non | I-AA | Total | |
| 1998 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 1-2 | 4-2 | 1-2 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 7-10 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 16-15 | ||
| 1999 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 2-2 | 5-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6-12 | 7-4 | 3-0 | 16-16 | |
| 2000 | 4-2 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 3-2 | 7-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 8-4 | 12-2 | 2-0 | 22-6 | |
| 2001 | 3-3 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 3-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9-6 | 7-2 | 1-0 | 17-8 | |
| 2002 | 2-3 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 3-3 | 4-1 | 7-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 8-10 | 13-3 | 4-1 | 25-14 | |
| 2003 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 2-0 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 8-1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 7-10 | 14-5 | 1-1 | 22-16 | |
| 2004 | 3-9 | 2-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 7-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6-11 | 11-3 | 5-1 | 22-15 | |
| 2005 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 5-12 | 7-2 | 6-0 | 18-14 | |
| 2006 | 7-3 | 3-3 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 5-0 | 6-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 14-7 | 14-0 | 6-0 | 34-7 | |
| 2007 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-0 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 5-0 | 8-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 8-10 | 16-2 | 6-0 | 30-12 | |
| Totals | 35-46 | 10-20 | 9-9 | 7-9 | 17-8 | 35-11 | 57-13 | 5-3 | 7-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 78-92 | 107-27 | 37-4 | 222-123 |
| Big12 vs | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC | Big10 | Big East | Pac10 | SEC | CUSA | MAC | Mtn West | Sun Belt | WAC | Big West | BCS | non | I-AA | Total | |
| 1998 | 1-1 | 1-3 | 1-0 | 3-4 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 6-2 | 6-0 | 8-9 | 16-2 | 3-0 | 27-11 | ||
| 1999 | 0-1 | 2-1 | 3-1 | 3-2 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 1-0 | 1-3 | 6-0 | 2-1 | 9-8 | 15-4 | 3-0 | 27-12 | |
| 2000 | 1-1 | 4-2 | 1-0 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2-0 | 3-1 | 5-1 | 5-0 | 7-8 | 17-4 | 4-0 | 28-12 | |
| 2001 | 2-0 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 3-1 | 1-1 | 6-0 | 5-0 | 5-1 | 6-7 | 20-3 | 7-0 | 33-10 | |
| 2002 | 2-2 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 5-3 | 3-1 | 3-0 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 3-0 | 7-2 | 13-10 | 16-7 | 7-0 | 36-17 | |
| 2003 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 0-2 | 3-2 | 2-4 | 2-1 | 2-2 | 6-0 | 6-1 | 5-0 | 8-14 | 21-4 | 7-0 | 36-18 | |
| 2004 | 1-0 | 1-3 | 1-0 | 4-1 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 5-0 | 2-2 | 5-1 | 6-1 | 8-5 | 20-6 | 4-0 | 32-11 | |
| 2005 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 6-0 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 9-0 | 2-0 | 8-5 | 18-3 | 8-0 | 34-8 | |
| 2006 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 2-3 | 8-0 | 2-1 | 6-12 | 19-6 | 10-1 | 35-19 | |
| 2007 | 4-2 | 3-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 7-0 | 6-2 | 2-1 | 5-1 | 4-1 | 10-9 | 24-5 | 7-1 | 41-15 | |
| Totals | 12-13 | 22-20 | 9-9 | 24-27 | 16-18 | 36-7 | 23-8 | 25-16 | 41-3 | 48-9 | 13-1 | 83-87 | 186-44 | 60-2 | 329-133 |
Even taking into account USC's phenomenal 16-4 record since 1998 (Notre Dame not included), the '9 Dwarfs' have a record 1 game over .500, almost indistinguishable from the Big 10 or SEC.
Equally worthy of comment are the number of games that the Big XII and the SEC have played against I-AA competition. More than double the number of games the Pac-10 has played. To be sure, with two more teams, you'd expect a marginally higher number of games, but taken as a percentage of total wins, a significant gap exists. There's nothing like playing I-AA foes to get that win total up and move ahead in the polls!
The numbers don't lie. Last weekend the Pac-10 stumbled embarrassingly, but over the past 10 years, it's not that the Pac-10 has been particularly bad, it's that USC has been preposterously good.
The opinions expressed in a FanPost are, in every way, reflective of the opinions of every California Golden Blogs Marshawnthusiast. Moreover, they are reflective of every employee of SBNation, including Tyler "Blez" Bleszinski.
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53 comments
Comments
Not sure I understand your exact question.
These tables show the non-conference record against each conference, then are aggregated to reflect the records against the BCS, against non-BCS conferences, then against I-AA, then overall record. Clearer?
by Nashville on Sep 19, 2008 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think what Spazzy is trying to say is “I, Spazzy McGee, am too stupid to figure all this out. Can you bring back that naked guy in gold paint again?”
Thanks for all the analysis. It really is great stuff, even if we’re too slow to fully appreciate it.
And,yes, Spazzy, you can start the “Slow” bit now, if you want.
I'm no The Maharg! But I try. Oh, how I try!
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
by TwistNHook on Sep 19, 2008 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, I fully understand.
Last weekend the Pac-10 stumbled embarrassingly, but over the past 10 years, it’s not that the Pac-10 has been particularly bad, it’s that USC has been preposterously good.
What I’m trying to decipher whether we needed 6 tables of win/loss records to make the grand conclusion that “USC is really good, and the Pac-10 is not that bad” despite having just lost a lot of bad games in one weekend?
Really? Did you think that all of us thought the Pac 10 horrid because of one weekend? Was any of this necessary?
by Spazzy Mcgee on Sep 19, 2008 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bring back the naked guy in gold paint!
So, I guess you’ve decided to start the “slow” bit then?
Clearly none of us thought the Pac-10 was horrid (except for UW and WSU – they legitimately stink). But suppose if I’d said, ‘historically, how has the Pac-10 stacked up against their BCS opponents?’ you’d have just immediately tossed off the 79-66 record to prove it’s actually superior? Because it seems like you’d prefer to try and make your points by repeating at increasingly loud volume ‘The Pac-10 is actually better than this weekend shows!’ Maybe it’s just me, but that type of persuasion only seems to work for me when I’m in the check-out line at the grocery store and Mommy just won’t buy me that candy bar I want.
The tables are necessary because without them, you couldn’t prove that it’s not just USC and everyone else. If you’re going to make an assertion, it helps to present evidence backing that up. The SEC points to 4 national championships. The Pac-10 can point to an overall win/loss record that blows the other conferences away.
by Nashville on Sep 19, 2008 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I don’t know about your keyboard, but mine doesn’t have a volume knob.
And I’m not sure what assertions you think I made? I never argued one way or another for or against the Pac 10…you did.
Either way, my point was that this “argument” has been gone over ad nauseum, and usually comes to the conclusion that “yes, the Pac 10 is decent,” which is hardly a point worth posting, no matter how much data you have. I could take some data and come up with the statement “Florida’s colors are orange and blue” and have the same cache…
by Spazzy Mcgee on Sep 19, 2008 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Spazzy, yknow, I’m just happy that somebody took the time to put something together like this and post it on the site. During the season, I was fearful that many FanPosts of “Check out this link” or “LONGSHORE SUCKS!” would pop up creating more noise than signal.
So, maybe it’s an argument that has been gone over ad nauseum and maybe the Pac10 is decent is not a post you’d like to see here, but it’s a pretty damn good FanPost in comparison to what we could be having. So, why quibble with that?
If it had just been a 30 word screed against “Dem SECers” I could certainly see your point.
I'm no The Maharg! But I try. Oh, how I try!
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
by TwistNHook on Sep 19, 2008 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why quibble?
Perhaps you recall my Longshore vs. Riley post questioning whether we needed another “take” on the “situation” after 8 months of arguing. It’s my raison d’etre: we don’t need to argue about the same stuff over_and_over_and_over_and_over no matter how many different ways we can spin the same set of incomplete, contextless data.
It’s the reason I (and I think many of us) turn to blogs: to escape the same catchphrases and taglines we hear from game announcers and print media. The entire offseason all we heard about was the Cal “quarterback controversy” because that’s all the mainstream media cared to play up, since it is a sensational story. I can’t listen to most of the national broadcasters and ESPN without hearing some silly opinion about how one conference is dominant and the other is weak (and always has been and/or always will be), and then hear the exact opposite the following week when a marquee team suffers a bad beat. You can be sure that no matter what game Aaron Rodgers plays this year, his passes will be “Favre-like” and his escapes “reminiscent of Favre” because that is all the talking heads know about him. I can’t stand it.
So when I see YET ANOTHER POST comparing incomplete Pac 10 and SEC records completely sans context and trying to determine which is “better” it pushes my buttons. Shrug.
by Spazzy Mcgee on Sep 19, 2008 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can't out-quibble a quibbler, but I'm damn sure going to try
First I’m going to outline a premise for why this post was necessary. Second, I’m going to address your specific concern (and indicate my agreement!) that conference comparisons without context are worse than useless. Then, I’m going to indicate why this particular FP doesn’t fall into that category and why it’s actually beneficial to have seen these tables. Onward!
It sounds like you and NorcalNick are tired of talking about conference rankings. I presume, however, that you enjoy it when Cal takes on opponents in other major conferences, such as Tennessee, Illinois, Michigan St., Kansas St., or Maryland to name a few. Such road games give you and many other Cal fans a chance to travel to a part of the country you might never otherwise visit (okay, Manhattan, KS not so much, but I hear great things about Champaign-Urbana!). But the weekends aren’t about the travel; they’re actually about the games. And one team will win and one team will lose. Which means as long you have inter-conference games, some sort of conference comparison will be unavoidable. Unless you want to mandate that no score be kept, or that all inter-conference games be treated as ties no matter the result or just never play out-of-conference games, you will be forced to live in a world of conference rankings. Furthermore, in week 3, it’s hard to have an intelligent discussion of conference play because many teams haven’t even played a conference game. So we turn to whatever discussion we can have which tends to be the one involving teams from different conferences playing each other.
Put succinctly, when you agree to play an inter-conference game you implicitly agree to the conference comparisons that accompany the result.
Now we can agree for a second. Norcalnick’s rant and your own lament echo one another fairly well:
I hate reading headlines that seem to indicate that somehow Maryland or UNLV somehow beat an entire conference yesterday. It just feels like provincialism and low-grade, lazy analysis is taking over in place of meaningful, ‘how does team A stack up against team B’ analysis.
So when I see YET ANOTHER POST comparing incomplete Pac 10 and SEC records completely sans context and trying to determine which is "better" it pushes my buttons. Shrug.
Agreed 100%. Drawing absolute conclusions based on a sample-size of 1 or 2 pieces of data is something that should only be reserved for Presidential elections and not serious matters like college football. Pieces that draw extended conclusions based around such small data sets are literally a waste of time. And while I’m biased, I say confidently this post doesn’t fall into that category.
Sans context? The context couldn’t be more clearly defined. These are the inter-conference records for the 10 complete years of the BCS era. Incomplete? The complete records of all six BCS conferences against every I-A conference and all I-AA teams are presented. If I was only posting based on this weekend’s events then you’d be on to something.
This data on the other hand represents 10 years of out-of-conference play. That’s 145 BCS conference opponents for the Pac-10 and 348 games overall. It’d be wrong to say anything is defined by this data because it’s not. But it sure is easy to spot trends within it, and whether your realize it or not, it’s actually what you’re doing when you – or anyone else – offer the opinion that "USC is really good, and the Pac-10 is not that bad." Something that you have seen or read must have caused that opinion to take root in your mind. These stats offer the confirmation of what you rightly suspected so that when someone else asserts that “Playing in the SEC is kind of like creating the Earth in six days except tougher” you can call bulls***.
I appreciate that I might have been more rah-rah Pac-10 on this post than I’d be if I were doing this for an academic study, but I figured the context was appropriate. Too, I may just be more interested in this stuff because I live in the South and so am in a perpetual ‘yes it is; no it ain’t!’ argument with my friends and co-workers. Nonetheless, I still believe this data actually says something, so that’s why I chose to share it with you.
by Nashville on Sep 19, 2008 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is unfortunate, Nashville, that you have been put in the position of having to justify the very writing of this post. I can certainly see situations where one might have to justify writing of FanPosts et al. This did not seem like such a situation. I hope that this doesn’t make you hesitate the next time you think of writing a long and in depth FanPost here. We really appreciate it.
I'm no The Maharg! But I try. Oh, how I try!
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
by TwistNHook on Sep 20, 2008 7:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think what Spazzy is saying is
Let’s stop discussing stuff and start making brownies! We can talk about what psychedelic rock band the Pac-10 reminds us of!
by BearsNecessity on Sep 19, 2008 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Strawberry Alarm Clock!
Incense and peppermints, and meaningless nouns…
by Nashville on Sep 19, 2008 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point for me was that this argument of conference strength has been gone over ad nauseum using the same 4 or 5 data points. Which is why we all feel nauseated when we see it.
I admit to raising the argument for the Pac-10, but I also supplied additional data that the National Championship Issue had compiled, because I doubt very many people had seen it before. I certainly hadn’t.
by Nashville on Sep 19, 2008 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Spazzy hates Nash people. Don’t take it the wrong way. I know he hates former WCW nWo superstar Kevin Nash and his damnable PowerBomb!
I'm no The Maharg! But I try. Oh, how I try!
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
by TwistNHook on Sep 19, 2008 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to forget the immacuately dressed Steve Nash, or demented Nobel Prize winner John Nash, or CBS’s hit drama Nash Bridges.
by BearsNecessity on Sep 19, 2008 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have no problems with Avinash!
by Spazzy Mcgee on Sep 19, 2008 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, nash is fine, but Nash is not. You are a weird weird man, Spazzy. How CBKWit puts up with you, I do not know.
I'm no The Maharg! But I try. Oh, how I try!
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
by TwistNHook on Sep 19, 2008 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I will give you this though
I probably should’ve put the abstract “above the fold” instead of after all the data. It’s just that if I had done that, I couldn’t be sure you’d have read through my 6 precious tables!
by Nashville on Sep 19, 2008 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, who wants more statistics?
Last night, I was watching the Colorado-West Virginia game, and they showed a table of the ‘Big 6’ conferences and their non-conference record. Unsurprisingly, the SEC was at the top with a sterling 23-3 record. However, they didn’t really discuss at all who they actually beat. So I looked it up:
The following lists the teams that SEC schools played, along with their ranking according to Jeff Sagarin, who rates all 245 Division I teams.
Wins
@ Clemson 37
Miami (FL) 49
@ Louisville 54
Southern Miss 55
Appalachian State 1-AA 73
Central Michigan 74
Middle Tennessee 75
Hawai’i 79
North Carolina State 84
Rice 92
Tulane 106
@ Miami (OH) 114
Louisiana-Monroe 116
@ Louisiana-Monroe 116
Western Kentucky 117
Georgia Southern 1-AA 120
Memphis 125
Western Illinois 1-AA 129
UAB 137
North Texas 146
Southeastern Louisiana 1-AA 192
Samford 1-AA 201
Norfolk State 1-AA 206
Losses
@ Wake Forest 22
@ UCLA 50
@ Louisiana Tech 110
That’s just 10 of 23 wins over the top 100 teams, and just 2 over the top 50. The SEC actually goes just 2-2 vs. the top 50 teams in Division I. Also, that’s just 7 road games (of 26), with just a 4-3 record on the road. 3 of those road games were at teams ranked outside the top 100, and the SEC lost one of those games too (@ Louisiana Tech). Finally, the SEC does post a 4-2 record against other BCS conference opponents.
This is not to say that the SEC isn’t the best conference — just that their wins haven’t proven very much yet. The Pac-10 already has 2 non-conference wins better than anything the SEC has (vs. #12 Ohio State and vs. #21 Tennessee), and more Top 50 wins (vs. #44 Michigan State). The Pac-10’s non-conference record isn’t great (just 10-10), but 4 of those losses are to teams ranked in the Sagarin’s Top 10 (vs. # 2 Oklahoma, @ #7 Penn State, vs. #8 BYU, and @ #8 BYU), 7 of the 10 losses were to Top 50 teams (@ #17 TCU, vs. #33 Oklahoma State, @ #45 Maryland), and all of them were to teams in the Top 100 (@ #68 New Mexico, vs. #76 UNLV, and @ #81 Baylor).
Suck on these statistics, SEC.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
by ragnarok on Sep 19, 2008 1:28 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
How could one entity suck on a concept and/or series of concepts?
I'm no The Maharg! But I try. Oh, how I try!
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
by TwistNHook on Sep 19, 2008 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very, very carefully.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
by ragnarok on Sep 19, 2008 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No joke
Getting those @ symbols caught in your esophagus is the worst!
by Nashville on Sep 19, 2008 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds like you have experience!
I'm no The Maharg! But I try. Oh, how I try!
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
by TwistNHook on Sep 19, 2008 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Naw, I was just in the room when a friend tried it after having one of BearsNecessity’s brownies.
by Nashville on Sep 19, 2008 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Was it naked gold paint man?
I'm no The Maharg! But I try. Oh, how I try!
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
by TwistNHook on Sep 19, 2008 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's right
But, he was known as silver painted man then.
by Nashville on Sep 19, 2008 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man, how times have changed. I remember when he was bronze painted man.
I'm no The Maharg! But I try. Oh, how I try!
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
by TwistNHook on Sep 19, 2008 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A side question would be why the Pac-10 doesn’t schedule more patsies, then, since I doubt the SEC will lose their I-AA games.
by sec119 on Sep 19, 2008 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Persuasion is as important as accuracy
That’s a Wall Street phrase, but it applies to college football too. Especially because the best teams are ranked by a collection of pollsters who frequently appear to make decisions that are….questionable, high profile victories are necessary to change the public perception. The SEC in particular has done a phenomenal job breastbeating about how much more difficult their conference is than the NFL, er rest of college football. It’s worked, and now voters give them the benefit of the doubt, to the point that they have 5 teams ranked in the top 10, when maybe 3 are justified.
If the Pac-10 started playing lots of patsies, they’d certainly see more wins, but I doubt they’d get much more respect. And given a cluster!@*&* like at the end of last season, the pollsters will likely perceive the winner of the “best” conference as the best team and give them the shot at playing for the National Championship.
by Nashville on Sep 19, 2008 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cool statistics all around. Thanks Rags & Nashville
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
by HydroTech on Sep 19, 2008 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
interesting evaluation
I wish the ncaa would go back to not counting wins agains FCS teams for bowl eligability.
by Rocksanddirt on Sep 19, 2008 4:10 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
i agree
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
by HydroTech on Sep 19, 2008 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Analyzing all of these charts seems too much like work. Fuck these charts! Unless they point towards victory for the Bears! GO BEARS! FUCK THE CHARTS!

by CaliSeth on Sep 19, 2008 10:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I deal with numbers all day! Fuck these numbers. They don’t mean shit.
“Statistics is a mathematical science pertaining to the collection, analysis, interpretation or explanation, and presentation of data. It is applicable to a wide variety of academic disciplines, from the natural and social sciences to the humanities, government and business.”
Notice how there is no mention of College Football!
by CaliSeth on Sep 19, 2008 11:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
OK, I’m drunk, who disagrees with me? Come on now, you know I’ll handle you!
by CaliSeth on Sep 19, 2008 11:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
Statistics are relevant to all aspects of life. You should know that.
by BearsNecessity on Sep 19, 2008 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smoke it up Avi, puff on it. It will make u feel good. I was sober for the entire week at work. That is why I posted so little. I love to puff and ponder all the problems of Cal football. We can get this team on the winning track by blazing. I mean it! This is Amsterdam! Smoke for LIFE! Treasury bailouts aint got nothing on us!

by CaliSeth on Sep 19, 2008 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who really has anything against me? None of you. How sad.
by CaliSeth on Sep 20, 2008 12:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I know most of u hate me, but watch this video first!
by CaliSeth on Sep 20, 2008 12:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Not, that video is worthless. I was drunk at the time. Never watch anything I suggest!
by CaliSeth on Sep 20, 2008 12:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
duly noted
also, i’m drunk right now too. also, i love playing with statistics. it’s fun for me. maybe i prove something, maybe i don’t, but hopefully i make you go ‘huh’. maybe see things in a different light.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
by ragnarok on Sep 20, 2008 1:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You have made me do more than that. Being as it is a bi week, this is no time to mess with statistics. Come Cowboys v Packers we will worry about that! These lil Biatches want ME to make a sacrifice. WEll so be it. We can live out this Cowboy dream!
Drunk Cowboys got me!
by CaliSeth on Sep 20, 2008 2:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
hmm...
“bi week”… interesting.
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
by HydroTech on Sep 20, 2008 2:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No worries… I got H20 in my bed. I will take the blame for this failed experiment. If anyone wants to join in on the next more complex bed setup let me know….
by CaliSeth on Sep 20, 2008 2:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
HI FRIENDS!
In other words, I am drunk and take no responsibility for my ridiculous comments! Going to bed now folks, see you tomorrow afternoon……………….
by CaliSeth on Sep 20, 2008 2:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The Russians aint got nothing on us! Georgia shall forever be free! Ukraine is not part of Russia!
by CaliSeth on Sep 20, 2008 2:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If the previous Russian Plane has a problem…. well…. game over….

by CaliSeth on Sep 20, 2008 2:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Seth, you know what. Watching your comments as they descend further into the maelstrom of hilarious drunkness each morning is one of my favorite joys of these all-too-early Saturday morning.
It’s like watching a car crash. You fear to look, but can’t turn away. Keep on keeping on!
I'm no The Maharg! But I try. Oh, how I try!
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
by TwistNHook on Sep 20, 2008 7:25 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed. The other day I was driving on 880, and there was an overturned tractor trailor on an exit ramp. That was awesome, and this is kind of like that.
by sec119 on Sep 20, 2008 6:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Remember kids..
Don’t drink and drive post
In other words, Go Bears!
by royrules22 on Sep 20, 2008 12:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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