We were just joking about that Every Game Counts thing, right?
by TwistNHook on Sep 15, 2008 7:43 AM PDT
in California Golden Bears Football
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"Chase Daniel, scrambling for the open receiver in our hearts!" via blogs.chron.com
Now that it has been proven that Cal has no chance achieving anything this year or any other, it's a giant free for all off the bandwagon. There's no honor here. It's every man, woman, and clown for themselves. So, what bandwagon are you jumping on? Me? I'm going for Mizzou. That Chase Daniel is so dreamy!
But before you make that giant leap into Tiger-land (it's too late for me!), maybe we should take a look at the situation as it really is. Instead of how we perceive it. For all the gnashing of teeth and rending of clothes, if you actually look at the schedule going forward, things don't seem all so bad. Let's take a look.
The first thing I want to note is that we only have 3 road games left. Three! 3! The season has barely started and we've already done pretty much half our road games. We'll discuss that more further, but let that be the opening salvo of optimism. I'm going to go through each team left on our schedule and look at where they stand today. At the end, I'll have some closing thoughts.
First up, we have the bye. If we lose to that, let's just all quit the blog.
After that potentially harrowing experience, there is an actual game:
September 27: Colorado State.
via www.fshn.cahs.colostate.edu
Colorado State currently stands at 1-1. They got blown off the block against Colorado and then managed to squeak out a win against SacState. This is a team that is "supposedly" inferior to Cal. Many people said the same thing about Maryland. The difference is a)this game is at home, b)Cal will have had 2 weeks to stew after the humiliating Maryland defeat, and c)this team is not as good as Maryland. If we do not defeat Colorado State, well, then, Cal is not the team we thought they were.
October 4, Arizona State
ASU beat up on Northern Arizona and then Stanford. Not that shabby! But then they lost, at home, to a fairly unassuming UNLV squad. Even with their unexpected defeat, they are still a dangerous team. But the UNLV game exposed them in a manner similar to our Maryland game. This is a team that definitely could put Cal on its heels early and is not one to be taken lightly. I do not feel confident about this game. But if we see MSU Cal, I think we can take it.
Then. Another bye.
October 18, at Arizona
Here, we have a potentially improved Arizona team. They ravaged Idaho and Toledo. There was some buzz about them, but then suffered a solid loss at New Mexico. That certainly has killed the buzz. At Arizona has been a house of horrors for teams in recent years, but oddly enough only in November. This game is in October. I feel reasonably confident about this game.
October 25, UCLA
We all know how UCLA started their year off with a rousing victory over Tennessee. Hopes were high, but then they got mushroom slapped by BYU. How UCLA responds to the BYU game will determine how the rest of their season goes. They have major injury problems, a new coaching staff, and minimal talent across the board. I feel reasonably confident about this game.
November 1, Oregon
via blogs.zdnet.com
Oregon is definitely a strong competitor in the Pac10 this year. But they have had some rough injury problems. They dominated UDub and Utah State, but then struggled to beat Purdue (receiving yet another QB injury during that game). Like you have heard many times already in this post so far, buzz was building, but took a big hit over the weekend. If MSU Cal shows up, I feel like we can take this game. Especially if their injuries continue to pile up. I am happy it is at home. I am happy our two toughest remaining non-USC games are at home. I don't feel confident about this game at all, but think Cal can definitely win it.
Then, we face USC. I'm not going to waste your employer's valuable time even looking at this one. You know as well as I that, yknow, we aren't exactly in their league. It's kind of like USC is my wife and Cal is me. And if we beat USC, people will be as shocked as they were when my wife agreed to marry me. If not more so. And believe me, people were pretty, pretty shocked!
November 15, Oregon State
Oregon State is kind of on the opposite path. Instead of dominating teams and then losing embarassingly over the weekend, they lost to Stanford and Penn State and then destroyed last year's BCS darling, Hawaii. Of course, OSU seems to be like Arizona insomuch as they peak near the end of the year. So, early season disappointments aside, all that matters is how they are playing at the end of the year. Normally, I would feel confident about this one, but, honestly, I don't anymore. They bounced back in an easy way against Hawaii. And its at Corvalis in the end of the year.
November 22, Stanford
Stanford started the year off with an exciting victory over highly regarded OSU. But they were unable to build off that momentum, dropping the next two games in rough fashion to ASU and TCU. Both away games. While we have 5 road games this year, Stanford has 5 home games. With so many away games, it could be a long season for the Cardinal this year. The week before they face us, they face USC. Could be a difficult loss for them and demorialize them further. I think our Cal team will be out for revenge in a big way here. I feel reasonably confident about this game.
December 6, Washington
via store.cstv.com
Washington, well, they've had an odd season. That odd loss to BYU sandwiched between a shellacking by Oregon and Oklahoma. They showed some definite promise in the BYU game, but it doesn't appear that this is their year. Last year, they beat us in humiliating fashion up in Seattle. By the time this game rolls around, Willingham either will be gone or in his last game. I feel pretty confident about this game.
Final Thoughts:
First and foremost, only 3 away games left. Let's just count out USC now. Of those other two, let's split them. Both are teams that we should, in theory, beat. But, Cal has had problems on the road in recent years. Especially late on the road. So, let's say we go 1-2 in the remaining road games. Not great, but that puts us at 3-3, 2-2 in conference.
Of the home games, if this Cal team plays anything like the team we saw play against MSU, we should (should) beat Washington, Colorado State, Stanford, and UCLA. That puts us at 7-3, 5-2 in the conference. That leaves ASU and Oregon. We could as much beat both of those teams as we could lose to both of them. So, let's split them. 8-4, 6-3 in the conference. That seems to be a solid and reasonable expectation for this team.
The sad truth is that given how the non-USC Pac10 has gone, 6-3 might be enough to get 2nd place. It's a wide open race. That alone is enough to make me feel optimistic. Sure, we had a disappointing plop on Saturday. But what other team made you sit up and say "They can be second!" None! It's unfortunate that our goal doesn't appear to be first. And I'd love to beat USC and win it all, too.
But let's just try to be realistic here. And optimistic. I think after this past weekend, some optimistic realism just might be what we need. Oh and Chase Daniels. GO BEARS!
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Reasonable
Your prediction of 8-4 (6-3) is very reasonable. But it leaves out one important fact: Cal always loses at least one conference game they shouldn’t. OSU last year. Arizona a couple back. Ucla any time we’re in LA. and so on.
Putting that in there, the home matches against Ucla, Arizona, and the Furd are anything but “gimmes.” Especially with the growing pains this team will probably still be feeling well into the schedule.
Maybe it’s the Old Blue cynicism in me, but I see another loss in that group, and a final tally of 7 – 5 (5 – 4). Just about what this team should have. We’ve got the talent and coaching to win one we probably shouldn’t (ASU or Oregon), but to also lose one at hom we shouldn’t (see above).
That isn’t mea leaping off the bandwagon. If I didn’t leap during Kapp, Gilby, or Holmoe I sure as hell am not going to now. But Maryland did show that this team is young and will stumble. It’s all part of the cycle for any team not named USC.
And anyway, at this point the only games I care about are Ucla and the Furd. We grab those two, I am good.
Go Bears!
I’m middle blue, like yourself I have seen more crushed expectations from the Bears than many here, but with the talents of this team and what I see as a lot of blah around the rest of the conference we shouldn’t be satisfied with the token rival wins. Every game except SC is winnable based on talent alone IF our players play to their top level. Our performance coming out of this week will define Tedford as a head coach.
I feel pretty confident about CSU. I’m with SoCal on the rest of the season. I think we split ASU and OU, and lose one other Pac 10 game besides USC. I don’t see Riley and the WRs (sounds like a band name) jelling enough to take enough pressure off the running game to run the rest of the non-USC Pac 10 schedule.
If this scenario plays out I would still consider this season to be very successful.
The Bear Will Not Quit
The Bear Will Not Die
Warning: Optimism Alert!
This team needed a loss like this. It’s a wake up call that any team can win a game on Saturday (except maybe, WSU, they are really bad). After the 2006 Tenn debacle, the team came out on fire for quite a few games and nearly got into the Rose Bowl. I’m not convinced this is a RB team, but either way this has the potential to be that ‘hard lesson learned’ game for the season and it is coming in a non-conference game.
That said, I think this is the test of the new ‘leadership’ Follett/Mack/Et al are suppose to bring this year. Will this team produce a post-OSU like collapse, a post-Tennesee run, or something in between? That’s why the games are played.
Of course in the end they may just blow the rest of the season, we’ll have seagulls outnumbering fans vs. USC en route to a 63-12 (6 safeties!!) loss and a miserable showing against the Furd…
I don’t think we ever need a loss. I have a feeling that last season is still fresh in many of these players’ minds. I don’t think they need a loss to remind them of their fallibility. Personally, I think this kind of loss on national television to an East Coast team is worse than any hubris that may have resulted from winning.
My big fear here is that the UMD loss is the blueprint for all our opponents the rest of the way: stack the box, overload against the run, and force the Bears to beat you with a group of receivers with less than ten career catches before the season started. It bears remembering that Saturday was Riley’s fifth career start, too…
Before the season started, I looked at how green the roster was and concluded that any winning record this year would be lucky. Given how weak the whole conference (bar U$C) looks, it feels like we could finish with 3 wins or 10, and there’s no way to know week in and week out what to expect.
Ah well. Buy the ticket, take the ride. I knew I was in for this when I married a Band alum. ;]
Riley is definitely green and we have to get through that, but being there in MD I have to wonder if the effectiveness of the blueprint you describe in this game was in part due to the shit conditions. Not only does it naturally work to flatten some talent disparities but they also used it as a motivating factor in itself, going down hard, etc. I know, enough about the weather. And we’ll see soon enough since everything else is out here in relative heaven. I’m still in the 8-4 boat myself based on the overall embarrassment of the Pac-10 this weekend, but we’re part of that embarrassment so it’s lookin’ real tough.
Yeah, the weather out there is no joke. Every time I think about my ridiculous house payment, I remember living in DC in 2001 when autumn didn’t arrive until Dec. 9.
I think the plane ride the night before didn’t help. Every time I fly cross-country I always wish I’d taken the day off the next day, never mind getting up at jackass o’clock in the morning in hot hot heat to play football. Even some MD partisans on DC radio said that the win was half due to the time shift…
by VandyImport on Sep 15, 2008 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t know about the plane ride in regards to the weather. The group I was with was theoretically “acclimatized” by being there a preliminary 2 nights and we still felt like puke just sitting there. I think you have to train in it, rest in it, mow your lawn in it, etc to really be prepared for it. I do believe in heading east early in regards to body cycles, etc, and don’t think that simulating that at home as the coaching staff attempted is any replacement for seeing the sun in the place that corresponds to your internal clock. In other words, I’d put it as a simple jet lag issue if it was an issue at all.
I'm very confused by your analysis.
I mean who the heck is MSU Cal? I frantically looked through the team roster and found nobody by that name. Is he a backup QB that doesn’t miss his target? Is he a great WR that always runs perfect routes? Or is he a big fat off/def player that never allows a sack on offense and always gets 5 sacks on defense? Who is this mystery player and when does he become eligible? Until you clear this up, I have no understanding of your analysis.
"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren
He is merely the level that I believe Cal can play at. Its not a perfect team by any stretch of the imagination. But a team that is in a far better position to beat ASU and Oregon than say Maryland Cal.
I'm no The Maharg! But I try. Oh, how I try!
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
Based on your serious response
I guess my attempt at humor failed miserably . . .
"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren
by oaktownmario on Sep 15, 2008 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Sorry Ive been working all morning on this emergency hearing thisa fternoon taht I literally found out bout on Friday at 5. Speaking of which, back to work!!!
I'm no The Maharg! But I try. Oh, how I try!
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
And since we're making serious responses
I thought MSU Cal’s pass defense was pretty bad. But then again,Bob Gregory is in charge of that, and he’s been at Cal waaaay too long IMO.
"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren
by oaktownmario on Sep 15, 2008 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
And since we're making wishes
why not just wish that these teams show up to play Cal’s schedule: WSU CSU, WSU ASU, WSU UA, WSU UCLA, WSU ORE, WSU USC, WSU OSU, WSU Furd, and WSU WA.
"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren
by oaktownmario on Sep 15, 2008 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Agreed.
"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren
by oaktownmario on Sep 15, 2008 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions
well....
i’m going to stay on the optomisitic side….The good from a game like this is we forget all that national championship bullshit. for the rest of the season the only games that matter are conference games.
we’re 1-0 in conf. now.
UW, UA is two more.
OSU, UCLA, Stan likely better teams, but still very winnable.
ASU, UO good teams, tough to win
$c really good team, would take a perfect game to beat. But based on what they did against ohiost, not invinceable. OhioSt. was awful on offense with a boring predictable game plan, and their linemen and TE’s were to slow to block sc’s folks. There were points in that game where it was very clear that sc’s defense knew EXACTLY what the play was going to be.
You should be mauled by a rabid grizzly for even joking about this twist!
We march and fight, to death or on to victory. Our might is right, no traitors shall prevail. Our hearts are steeled against the fiery gates of hell. No shot or shell, can still our mighty song.
The steward went below
To light the captain’s lamp
The lamp it would not light
Because the wick was damp
The captain went below
To kick TwistnHook in the ass!!!
He said So fire it up you son-of-a-bitch
The Golden Gate is passed
Learning
I’m taking the optimistic approach as well. I think that these young gentlemen are still coming together. It has been hard to tell on TV if the WRs are handling their business or not. From what people at the game said it sounds like they are still adjusting to the game. I still think the D is better than they are getting credit for. I also feel like this team will improve as the year goes on. People will most likely keep stuffing the box until we can prove that our pass is a consistent threat.
might as well be optimistic
Though I do miss the fatalistic days of 2001 when a deep pass from Boller being an incompletion was a good thing. Because it wasn’t an interception.
I'm still wondering why the Nets didn't draft Leon Powe.
Nah…. My favorite moment was during the Gilby years when we’d cheer that the punt returner catch the ball without muffing it.
Ayoob goes back to pass, batted down by the defensive end. Now those were the days.
by therealnorcalnick on Sep 15, 2008 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions
I suppose I could have said the same thing but substituted Justin Vedder for Ayoob.
by therealnorcalnick on Sep 15, 2008 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions
In the words of Chris and Steve from "Bear Territory"
Undefeated in the Pac-10! Undefeated in the Pac-10! Undefeated in the Pac-10!
For those that don’t know about Bear Territory – Click here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTswlto8Ofg
by LeonPowe on Sep 15, 2008 5:01 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
DeSean with an early catch against Dallas
Bobbles a third down catch that would’ve made it first and goal though.
Oh wow
Did he throw that ball before he went over the goalline?
by BearsNecessity on Sep 15, 2008 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Ugh
I mean…this is ten times worse than Riley right?
by BearsNecessity on Sep 15, 2008 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Eh
They scored. Still unbelievably stupid.
by BearsNecessity on Sep 15, 2008 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Jackson did something like that with the Bears? He hasn’t done something like that since high school I’m sure.
by BearsNecessity on Sep 15, 2008 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Oops. Clarity isn’t my thing today.
I meant on the verge of something terrific and then an incredibly boneheaded play. Wasn’t meant as a specific reference to anything Jackson did.
Hmm. Very reasonable and yet something I don’t want to even consider.
by BearsNecessity on Sep 15, 2008 7:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah I had the under
Don’t remind me.
by BearsNecessity on Sep 15, 2008 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions
or Marion Barber
Or Jason Witten. Or T.O. Or…
by BearsNecessity on Sep 15, 2008 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions
meh
Barber’s been bottled up. Knock on wood.
I'm still wondering why the Nets didn't draft Leon Powe.
by yellow fever on Sep 15, 2008 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions
I knew I shouldn't have said that
I'm still wondering why the Nets didn't draft Leon Powe.
by yellow fever on Sep 15, 2008 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Footsteps?
Also, it sounds like they’re telling another story of DeSean doing something a bit foolish.
Yeah
The infamous high school All American game, where he swan dived at the 1.
by BearsNecessity on Sep 15, 2008 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Final stats
6 catches, 110 yards for Tha1. Still a spectacular effort, although all fans will probably remember is that boneheaded play.
Not to criticize your rather impressive efforts, but it might be prudent for you to have a bit more description in your future live blogs. It can be difficult to follow sometimes when it is so vague.
I'm no The Maharg! But I try. Oh, how I try!
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
It’s not that different from how I talk during a Cal game. The only difference is that we’re all watching the Cal game and all of us know what’s going on, while tonight you were watching Gossip Girl and could only tell us how heartbroken you were over X and Y’s breakup.
by BearsNecessity on Sep 15, 2008 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions
I just don’t understand why Nate had to turn down Chuck’s financial offer. Now he is stuck with that Duchess woman, because if he leaves her shell give up his dad’s secret hiding place to the FBI.
Unbelievable!
I'm no The Maharg! But I try. Oh, how I try!
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
by TwistNHook on Sep 15, 2008 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Whats really unbelievable is how slutty that Bee is!
by CaliforniaBone on Sep 16, 2008 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
I will keep it in mind though. Thanks for the input.
by BearsNecessity on Sep 15, 2008 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions
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Golden Bears Football Schedule
| Fresno St. | Sat 09/03 | W 36 - 21 |
@
Colorado
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Sat 09/10 | W 36 - 33 |
| Presbyterian | Sat 09/17 | W 63 - 12 |
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@
Washington
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Sat 09/24 | L 23 - 31 |
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@
Oregon
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Thu 10/06 | L 15 - 43 |
|
USC
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Thu 10/13 | L 9 - 30 |
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Utah
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Sat 10/22 | W 34 - 10 |
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@
UCLA
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Sat 10/29 | L 14 - 31 |
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Washington St.
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Sat 11/05 | W 30 - 7 |
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Oregon St.
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Sat 11/12 | W 23 - 6 |
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@
Stanford
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Sat 11/19 | L 28 - 31 |
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@
Arizona St.
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Fri 11/25 | W 47 - 38 |
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@
Texas
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Wed 12/28 | L 10 - 21 |
Pacific-12 Conference Standings
(updated 1.2.2012 at 11:12 PM PST)
| North | Conf | Overall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | W | L | |
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Oregon Ducks
|
8 | 1 | 12 | 2 |
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Stanford Cardinal
|
8 | 1 | 11 | 2 |
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Washington Huskies
|
5 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
|
California Golden Bears
|
4 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
|
Oregon St. Beavers
|
3 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
|
Washington St. Cougars
|
2 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
| South | Conf | Overall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | W | L | |
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USC Trojans
|
7 | 2 | 10 | 2 |
|
UCLA Bruins
|
5 | 4 | 6 | 8 |
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Utah Utes
|
4 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
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Arizona St. Sun Devils
|
4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|
Arizona Wildcats
|
2 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
|
Colorado Buffaloes
|
2 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
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