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Around SBN: NFL Roundtable: Which Draft Pick Is Most Likely To Bust?

Seeds of a brewing QB controversy?

Haven't really seen either of these articles featured prominently here, so I thought I would post them along with a little analysis (sorry, but these are too important for a FanShot - if I outright missed them somewhere else, well, then at least read my inconsequential musings.)

The article that obviously has gotten attention today has been Cam Inman's piece outright endorsing Riley as the starter - as of 9:00 p.m. it was still the featured story on the Contra Costa Times homepage.

Overall, I think this piece isn't significant for its logic, but rather its prominence - the lead column on the first day for camp for the paper with the highest Cal grad / reader ratio around.

Inman's logic is fairly shallow:

  • The end of 2007 sucked...
  • Riley prevented it from being the worst collapse by any team ever (agreed, here) ...therefore...
  • Riley should be the starter...
  • Additionally, even if Riley doesn't win the job outright heshould get the nod purely to break with 2007. (CGB start your hate-mail machines!)

More interesting than the daily "I am a writer/blogger and I think Riley/Longshore should start/go to hell" pieces, was Rusty Simmons' piece in the Chron. It used quotes and historical examples and stuff (yah reporting!),

Rather than diving into the depths of who should start, it instead points out that this type of tenuous situation could create long-term problems for the team as a whole. That, in the end, a decisive choice might be better than the right choice.

In my opinion, this is the single most important passage in any Cal football article this offseason:

 

"I don't look at the quarterback situation as a question," Tedford said. "It's just a matter of making a decision on who is going to take the first snap."

That's where Follett, speaking as the voice of the players, re-enters the picture. He knows he's right in the middle of a potential quagmire.

"You can tell it is split among guys about who they want to be the quarterback, but we know we have to support either one," Follett said. "If we don't, it will rip the team apart."

Arizona State coach Dirk Koetter committed every possible wrong in a similar situation in 2006. He named the more experienced Sam Keller as the starter, only to reverse his decision to the younger, flashier Rudy Carpenter within 24 hours. Keller transferred, and the team struggled to a 7-6 record.

Follett knows about the ASU debacle and also saw what happened last year in Berkeley when Longshore tried to return from a sprained ankle, but threw at least one interception in five consecutive games as Cal went 1-4. Longshore remained a favorite among some in the locker room for trying to play through pain, and Riley emerged as a favorite among others for showing flashes of brilliance.

"We've already had a season when our team got ripped apart, and we won't let that happen again," Follett said. "We had way too many egos last year, and we had people picking sides. We have a whole new face that won't allow that now."

 

Let's being to break that down, shall we:

(1) Finally, someone (Follett) gets the sack to admit that the "team chemistry" problems in 2007 were a direct product of the QB controversy.

(2) In 2008, we have a coach who thinks it will be OK to not come to a clear resolution of this problem.

(3) The players are still spit.

(3) A player (OK, it is Zack Follett, so we can't take this as representing the whole team) leaves open that this issue could again tear the team apart yet again. Yes, he does while denying that it will happen again, but they are strong words nonetheless.

(4) We are compared to 2006 Arizona State! (And we aren't going to have off-the-field issues decide this one. In a sense, Koetter got lucky that Keller was so messed up that the team as a whole decided to endorse Carpenter.)

This got me thinking about just how difficult this decision will be, and that despite having strong opinions,that I in no way would want to be the guy to decide this.

Some of the factors at play just off the top of my head:

  • The NFL - how does Longshore's future weigh into this? Does Tedford owe him a senior season, even if Riley might be as good or perhaps better.
  • 2008, based on personnel, should be a rebuilding year on offense. Does that mean we want a senior, experienced quarterback to guide our young'uns or a guy who still has three years of eligibility?
  • How useful is practice in determining a starter when we have two years of gametape for Longshore, and a general idea that Riley is pretty good in games? Is this decision going to be based 25% on past performance, or 75% on past performance? In either case, which quarterback benefits?
  • Will the opinion of the team factor in at all? (Remember, this is what did in Koetter at ASU - he lost his job in part because he never even asked the team for an opinion and it turned out they were 100% unanimous for the other guy.)
  • Will Brock Mansion transfer immediately if Riley is named the starter?
  • How does Tedford's overall assessment of the team's potential influence his choice?

I am sure that there are more issues. I don't envy coach Tedford right now.

Riley fans, Longshore fans, let us pray together for a peaceful resolution over the next four weeks.

For now, this is a QB competition and not yet a controversy. It seems impossible, but I am holding out hope that it remains that way.

 

The opinions expressed in a FanPost are, in every way, reflective of the opinions of every California Golden Blogs Marshawnthusiast. Moreover, they are reflective of every employee of SBNation, including Tyler "Blez" Bleszinski.

Comment 46 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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Wow, what great insight into Cal football. You should totally get a blog!

What? Too soon?

"Save The Oaks: Overthrow Capitalism" said Dumpster Muffin sanguinely

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Aug 4, 2008 10:08 PM PDT reply actions  

The sky is falling!

http://sportingcontrarian.wordpress.com/

by BeastMode on Aug 4, 2008 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

I’m not exactly sure what you mean by somebody’s bitter. Are you referring to yourself? To me? To Twist? To Aaron Rodgers? To Joe Kapp?

http://sportingcontrarian.wordpress.com/

by BeastMode on Aug 5, 2008 12:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

Mostly to Twist

I misclicked who to reply to. I generally don’t respond sarcastically unless I know the person won’t take it personally.

I kissed Dumpster Muffin and I liked it. The taste of her hippie chapped lips.

by Maharg on Aug 5, 2008 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

Every time you respond sarcastically to me, I die a little inside.

"Save The Oaks: Overthrow Capitalism" said Dumpster Muffin sanguinely

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Aug 5, 2008 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

50 cc’s Sarcasm! Stat!

I kissed Dumpster Muffin and I liked it. The taste of her hippie chapped lips.

by Maharg on Aug 5, 2008 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

Everytime you die a little inside, I respond sarcastically. It’s a wonderful circle.

I kissed Dumpster Muffin and I liked it. The taste of her hippie chapped lips.

by Maharg on Aug 5, 2008 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

Wait, why is Maharg answering for Tedfordisgod? Are they the same people?

by sec119 on Aug 5, 2008 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

THE TRUTH COMES OUT!

"Save The Oaks: Overthrow Capitalism" said Dumpster Muffin sanguinely

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Aug 5, 2008 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

We’re definitely different people. I don’t have the patience or time to give the reasoned analysis that TedfordIsGod. I’d rather just respond sarcastically or add pop culture references to comments.

I kissed Dumpster Muffin and I liked it. The taste of her hippie chapped lips.

by Maharg on Aug 5, 2008 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

Um… I actually commented the same thing that TedfordIsGod said, last night. I guess my comment didn’t stick or something. I didn’t read that TedfordIsGod said the same thing or maybe my comment got deleted.

I kissed Dumpster Muffin and I liked it. The taste of her hippie chapped lips.

by Maharg on Aug 5, 2008 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

oops, accidentally replied to BeastMode instead of Twist. But all those people are probably bitter as well.

by Tedfordisgod on Aug 5, 2008 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

I’m bitter you didn’t reply to me!

"Save The Oaks: Overthrow Capitalism" said Dumpster Muffin sanguinely

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Aug 5, 2008 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

What aren’t you bitter about?

I kissed Dumpster Muffin and I liked it. The taste of her hippie chapped lips.

by Maharg on Aug 5, 2008 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Marshawn!

"Save The Oaks: Overthrow Capitalism" said Dumpster Muffin sanguinely

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Aug 5, 2008 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

Moot

It doesn’t matter who is named starter as long as said starter performs well. If the starter is winning games and leading the team to touchdowns, the backup’s buddies will be fine.

http://sportingcontrarian.wordpress.com/

by BeastMode on Aug 4, 2008 10:08 PM PDT reply actions  

Preach on, BeastMode, this is the truth. But if Cal starts losing due to an anemic offense, then I’d expect to see Riley after Cal’s first two-game losing streak.

Also, the 3-4 is by far what I’m looking forward to the most for next season. If anything, the 3-4 is what could push Cal to the BCS.

by sec119 on Aug 4, 2008 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

this is definitely too important for a FanShot

and doubly so because of your lengthy and reasonable analysis.

the cam inman article was discussed a little in today’s DBD, and honestly, i wasn’t that impressed with it. not that he’s wrong, or that it’s poorly written, just that there’s no real reporting in there (the only quotes are from the Pac-10 media day, I believe), and honestly not too much that’s new. it’s basically an enthusiastic vote for Riley, which is great and all, except that i’ve read a ton of those over the last 8 months.

So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!

by ragnarok on Aug 4, 2008 10:12 PM PDT reply actions  

Nice recap

To me, the big question is whether or not Tedford will hesitate to bring Riley in if Nasty Nate gets hurt. I don’t think Tedford really trusted Riley last year, but he said that he has much more confidence in him now. I hope that’s true.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by CBKWit on Aug 4, 2008 10:22 PM PDT reply actions  

If only all organizations listened to media types. Then Brett Favre would be the starter in Green Bay without any worry and Manny would still be in Boston and the Patriots would be 19-0 and won the Super Bowl by 40 points and Stanford would have laid down on 4th and 21 last year in the Coliseum…

by BearsNecessity on Aug 4, 2008 10:39 PM PDT reply actions  

Yeah, and let's all sing Kumbaya, shall we?

I would have summarized Inman’s argument differently.

Riley has won the starting position the way you win starting positions: on the field.
But Inman or Simmons might have added Longshore has had three major injuries keeping him out of games, practices or affecting his performance. They also might have mentioned that Tedford has only once ever disciplined Longshore, the Tennessee game. If Longshore is so good then he should light up whoever he plays with whatever snaps he gets.

Also, Tedford had enough information to make an early decision. Letting the competition go on has let the team division go on which was an issue last year. It sure doesn’t need to be repeated this year.

Lastly, the NFL angle really annoys me. The big headed leaving tickets for Jessica Simpson and leaving Cal for the NFL after his junior year is now replaced by the senior with the experience we need. Cal does not exist for Nathan Longshore. Nathan Longshore plays for Cal and if he does well, he’ll get drafted by an NFL team after the season is over. That’s how it works.

Stanfurd Delendum Est.

by Olsonist on Aug 4, 2008 10:42 PM PDT reply actions  

Riley fans, Longshore fans, let us pray together for a peaceful resolution over the next four weeks.

Amen to that. As we all saw, the Longshore/Riley debate nearly tore (and perhaps it did) the Cal fan base apart during the 07 season and even a bit into the off-season.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by HydroTech on Aug 5, 2008 2:33 AM PDT reply actions  

Rather than diving into the depths of who should start, it instead points out that this type of tenuous situation could create long-term problems for the team as a whole. That, in the end, a decisive choice might be better than the right choice.

I agree that the coaches need to choose a starter and stick with him through and through instead of flip-flopping. But the question is, are the players going to stick with the starter (who ever it is) even if we start losing? The same question applies to the fans.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by HydroTech on Aug 5, 2008 2:38 AM PDT reply actions  

Good post, TIG.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by HydroTech on Aug 5, 2008 2:38 AM PDT reply actions  

I take from JT’s comments that he willing to let the competition be decided on the field. NL will probably get the first snaps (JT will go with experience unless Riley clearly outplays him in camp) but both will play.

I have tremendous confidence in …in making the right decisions, running the offense, putting us in the right situations, and throwing the ball well also

Sound like Tedford on NL? Yep, but he’s actually talking about Reggie Robertson. Others have compared this year to the Robertson/Rodgers 2003 competition where both played until AR asserted himself. I’m not trying to say that Riley will ultimately beat out Nate, but I think we could have a couple of games of back and forth before a clear starter emerges.

I don’t think that would be a bad thing—unless we are losing a lot early, which is a risk. Like BeastMode said, whoever is leading the O to TDs and the team to Ws will command everyone’s respect.

by OskiMonsta on Aug 5, 2008 8:00 AM PDT reply actions  

good summary but no ground gained

Very nicely put, all of the things that we can continue to weigh and consider, argue and dismiss, but we’ve really been doing this for 9 months! We can’t change it and we’re stuck at this spot so I say we try to let it go and wait for football. I’ll trust Tedford and see what happens at the first game

by AndBears on Aug 5, 2008 5:07 PM PDT reply actions  

See gents what happens when you let women into the blog?

They start talking sense! Go BEARS!

I've got enough man-love for Longshore and Riley.

by Jan K Oski on Aug 5, 2008 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sense? You call that sense?

Then what other subject would you suggest we spend our time debating and arguing for the last 9 months? Riley v. Longshore has given my life meaning!!!

I kissed Dumpster Muffin and I liked it. The taste of her hippie chapped lips.

by Maharg on Aug 5, 2008 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Get a life.

Stanfurd Delendum Est.

by Olsonist on Aug 6, 2008 4:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

Day One

From the SFGate:

Longshore was 3 of 7 for 23 yards in 7-on-7 drills, and Riley was 5 of 7, with one reception coming on a leaping catch by freshman Marvin Jones. Longshore made a great read during full-team drills, rolled to his right and found Michael Calvin for about 22 yards.

Doing the math, it would seem that Longshore’s other two receptions were for a total of 1 yard. He’s a gamer that Longshore.

Stanfurd Delendum Est.

by Olsonist on Aug 5, 2008 10:10 PM PDT reply actions  

Damn. Longshore sucks. He ought to just throw to the deepest pattern every play regardless of the coverage to get his yards per completion average up. As we all know, the measure of a real man isn’t the size of his penis but his yards per completion average.

FYI, Riley only threw for 14 yards on his 5 completions.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by HydroTech on Aug 5, 2008 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Did I say 14 yards? I meant -14 yards. Yeah, damn. Riley sucks too. He ought to just throw hail marys all day long.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by HydroTech on Aug 5, 2008 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Come on HT, you can work a Brock Mansion mention in there somewhere.

Stanfurd Delendum Est.

by Olsonist on Aug 6, 2008 4:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

First cuddliness, now manliness?

Mark Wahlberg for starting QB!

by BearsNecessity on Aug 6, 2008 5:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

Was there any word in that article on how many yards, first downs, and touchdowns Longshore scrambled for?

"Save The Oaks: Overthrow Capitalism" said Dumpster Muffin sanguinely

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Aug 6, 2008 6:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'd like to throw another competitor into the QB derby

My dog.

She even posed and everything! Dog for quarterback!

I'm still wondering why the Nets didn't draft Leon Powe.

by yellow fever on Aug 6, 2008 7:26 AM PDT reply actions  

Dog For Quarterback!

"Save The Oaks: Overthrow Capitalism" said Dumpster Muffin sanguinely

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Aug 6, 2008 7:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

If you're going to include dog...

I vote Alex Mack.

Yes, that Alex Mack. Just imagine, Alex Mack snaps the ball to Alex Mack and then blocks for Alex Mack.

Alex Mack for QB!

I kissed Dumpster Muffin and I liked it. The taste of her hippie chapped lips.

by Maharg on Aug 6, 2008 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

I like how you think.

by zoonews on Aug 6, 2008 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Dog For Tedford!

"Save The Oaks: Overthrow Capitalism" said Dumpster Muffin sanguinely

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Aug 8, 2008 7:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

God for Dog!

I kissed Dumpster Muffin and I liked it. The taste of her hippie chapped lips.

by Maharg on Aug 8, 2008 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

Now that's going a bit too far

QB, President and God, ok, but not Tedford!!

by OskiMonsta on Aug 8, 2008 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

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