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Armed Forces Bowl Review: Part V: TD Pass to THA1

[Ed Note:  Hydro is kinda busy getting married to Nate Longshore, so it might take him a bit to respond.  His internet access is spotty when locked in Nate's delightful embrace.]

In this fifth installment of approximately a 12 play analysis, we're going to look at Riley's famous TD pass to Desean Jackson.  In case you missed the previous installments, here is Part I, Part II, Part III , and Part IV .

Let's begin.

Star-divide

Here's the pre-snap situation (picture below).  1st and 10, with Cal just inside Air Force territory.  Cal is utilizing 11 personnel (3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB).  The formation below should be familiar to you.  The TE (Stevens) is right, thus the strength is right.  The RB (Forsett) is left, thus weak because he is on the opposite side of the TE.  The WRs are in trips opposite of the TE.  This formation should look strikingly similar to the formation we covered previously in Part IV.  In fact, it is the same formation.  So I ask you again, what two plays are the most likely to occur out of such a formation in a Tedford offense?  Your answers should be zone read and bubble screen.  Those two plays are what should immediately come to mind when you see such a formation. 

But this is not to say that Tedford doesn't call regular pass plays out of such a formation either.  I'll spill the beans now and tell you that it's a regular pass play - which sort of makes sense.  Why?  Because Tedford already showed this formation previously and ran a zone read (which we saw in Part IV), and it got stuffed for a loss.  Tedford is probably hoping to catch Air Force sneaking up for the run by showing the same formation.  So Tedford will pass. Note that Air Force is this time defending with their base 3-4.  They have moved over their WLB over to the trips (note the AF WLB who is just about lined up over the inner most slot WR).  AF appears to be showing a zone pre-snap.  Note how their RCB (right cornerback) is not lined up directly over Cal's outer-most WR.  Also note AF is showing a two-deep safety look (the red dots on the right of the screen).  Assuming AF is playing a regular cover two with two deep safeties and five underneath zones, Cal's trips WRs should be able to overload the zone.  Note that AF only has three defenders towards Cal's trips (AF only has the WLB, CB, and deep safety in that direction).

Cal_e1_medium

The play is a pass play (duh), since this is the play where Riley (and by the way, Riley is now the QB) threw a TD bomb to THA1 (Desean Jackson).  I've shown THA1's route.  It's an inside-release go which pushes towards the safety to his side.  Note that this pass play is a playaction pass play (shown by Forsett's blocking route).  The playaction sucks in both the AF SLB (strongside LB) and SILB (strong inside linebacker) who then drop back into zone coverage (depicted by the red arrows).  AF also blitzes their LCB (left cornerback) whom is picked up by Forsett. 

Cal_e2_medium

The picture below shows what Riley is seeing just before he needs to decide whom to throw to.  Air Force is indeed playing a basic cover 2 defense with 2 deep safeties and 5 underneath zones.  I have put red dots on the five AF defenders who are playing the underneath zones.  Off the screen to the right AF has two safeties playing deep coverage with each one taking half of the field.  One of the holes in a cover 2 defense is deep between the two safeties and over the underneath zones; and deep down the sidelines outside of the safeties and over the underneath zones.  Riley sees that THA1 will be in that hole.  But first Riley has to side-step to the outside, the AF RE (right end) who has gotten inside of Cal's LT (Teofilo).  I've shown Riley's path below with the blue arrows, and the AF DE's path with the red arrows. 

Cal_e3_medium

Riley looks downfield and prepares to throw (depicted by the green vision cone).  The AF RCB (at the very top of the screen) sees Riley's eyes and knows that Riley is going to hit THA1 in the hole of the cover 2 defense.  The AF RCB vacates his zone and attempts to catch up to THA1 (depicted by the red arrow).  

Cal_e4_medium

As you can see in the picture below, the AF RCB is way too late (he's the guy on the bottom left of the picture below).  The only AF defender with a chance to stop the play is the AF safety who is closing on THA1.  I've highlighted the ball yellow.

Cal_e5_medium

Riley places the ball to the outside of THA1, thus THA1 is between the ball and the defender.  Thus, it is incredibly hard for the AF defender to swat the ball without going through or committing pass interference on THA1.  Essentially, by placing the ball so the WR is between the ball and the defender, the WR can shield the ball from the defender with his body.  

Cal_e6_medium

THA1 contorts his body and makes a diving catch.  Touchdown Bears!

What have we learned in this play?  After Tedford had called a zone read out of this same formation in the first quarter (which resulted in a loss of yards), he calls a playaction pass play out of the same formation to catch Air Force off guard.  Tedford is building success off of failed plays and setting up the defense. 

Furthermore, I wouldn't be totally surprised if Riley was already pretty certain where he was going with this ball prior to the snap.  I'm sure Riley saw that Air Force was showing a cover 2 (with 5 underneath zones) and knew that THA1's route would take him right into the seam (hole) of the defense.  It's important to note that THA1's route was an inside release which pushed towards the safety to his side.  This keeps the safety to his side of the field more towards the center of the field.  If THA1 had taken an outside release, the safety probably would have started to come over earlier (or more) to help provide deep coverage and THA1 would have been less open thus making for a tougher throw.  So by pushing towards the safety, it keeps the safety playing towards the center, so THA1 has more room to the outside to receive the pass. 

Now, I want to go back to the 3rd picture where Riley is getting pressured from the RDE.  I know in previous posts I have suggested that Longshore should throw the ball away when pressured, but this by no means that Riley must do the same.  The test for when one should throw the ball away is whether the QB can complete a pass or scramble for yards.  If the QB can safely complete a pass or scramble for yards, he should do so and not throw the ball away.  If the QB cannot safely complete a pass or scramble for yards, then they should throw the ball away.  Because Longshore is not as mobile as Riley, he often cannot scramble for yards when no receiver is open.  Thus, Longshore is required to throw the ball away more often.  But for Riley, because of his mobility, he is not required to throw the ball away as much.  The tests for the two QBs is the same, but the standard used for the tests is different.  So should Riley have thrown the ball away in this play?  Only if he felt he couldn't safely complete a pass and he couldn't scramble for yards.  Obviously, Riley felt he could complete the pass and thus he threw the ball - an excellent one too.  But by no means, is every QB required to throw the ball away just because they are pressured.

The final thing to note about this play, is that this play, and the play where Riley scrambles for a first down (not covered by this series), are the only plays where Riley gets pressured.  Both plays occurred in the 2nd quarter.  In fact, they occurred back to back (so right after this TD pass play on Cal's next possession, Riley scrambles for a first down).  It's interesting to note this because from here on out, in the plays covered by this series, as well as the plays not covered by the series, the OL gives Riley excellent protection.  This is not meant to detract from Riley's awesome performance (and make no mistake about it, it was an awesome performance.  He only threw two incomplete passes!  I'm not counting the incomplete hail mary), but it's certainly worth noting that the OL pass blocked pretty flawlessly for the remaining 37.5 minutes of the game.

Check back in a few days for Part VI.

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This is the difference between Sir Nastiness and King Riley...

Nasty Nate doesn’t “side step” the oncoming rush and he sure as hell doesn’t throw the ball deep to desean. He probably gets 1) sacked 2) throws an INT off his back foot (jim everett style) or 3) throws the ball away.

Riley in ‘08

by 33SwisherSweet on Jun 4, 2008 9:56 AM PDT   0 recs

I can't argue with the result of this play, but ...

I expect Nate would have gotten rid of the ball more quickly, finding the wide-open Hawkins over the middle. It probably wouldn’t have resulted in a touchdown, given the presence of the deep safety, but it would have been a nice gain nonetheless.

I’m not taking sides in the Longshore vs. Riley debate. As I’ve stated in comments on the old (“classic”?) blog, I’ll be very confident in both guys this fall. But let’s be fair. If we’re going to credit Riley for mobility-which we should-let’s also credit Nate for his ability to make much quicker reads and to deliver the ball before his lack of mobility becomes an issue. I can’t claim to be a Quarterbacking expert being the casual fan that I am, but I see that third picture in the sequence above and I can’t believe Riley’s still holding onto the ball. Riley won’t have the same luxury of experienced superstar receivers in 2008 who’ll be able to adjust their route and contort their body if the timing of the play is disrupted by his need to scramble. That will be something for all of us to watch for.

Go Bears!

by California Pete on Jun 4, 2008 4:04 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I disagree on a minor point...

Hawk was not really open on this play. If you review the play you can see Riley check the TE release first (Since he’s would already be on the seam.), check Hawkins, check Desean (I think Nate would have thrown the ball away at this point as he senses the inside move by the DE. NOT LT’s fault. Since LG had no one over him AND this is a pass play with defense with a 3 man front, he probably expected help to the inside.), check Hawk again, evade the DE, throw to Desean. Gap between the LB and SS for Hawkins was smaller than the 4QTR needle KR threaded. AF had this play pretty well covered. This play should not have resulted in a TD IMO.

Is it a bit risky to hold the ball longer? Yep. But it’s hard to argue against 255+ efficiency rating.

by BlueWanderer on Jun 5, 2008 12:57 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I disagree on your minor points...

While we still can’t see the AF safeties in your widescreen photos, Hawk looks pretty wide open. As long as Riley doesn’t throw a complete rainbow floater to Hawkins, I believe a completion could have been thrown to Hawkins had Riley chosen to throw to Hawkins.

As for the LT expecting help from the LG. You’re probably right. But does that mean the LT is not a fault just because he’s expecting help? No. The LT can reasonably expect help but it doesn’t absolve him of fault just because he is expecting help. After all, look at the LT’s body position in the 3rd and 4th pictures above. The LT got beat inside; his shoulders are turned inside. Further examination of the play reveals the DE took an outside pass rush. When the DE is pass rushing to the outside, the LT’s responsibility to maintain the block almost always becomes his own and not shared with his help. I do not think that Coach M would agree that the LG was at fault for not helping out the LT on an outside pass rush.

by HydroTech on Jun 5, 2008 12:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Couple of points to clarify...

Here is Hawk’s route in particular. Teams usually try to either flood the deep zone or hit the seams between coverage zones. It doesn’t seem like this play is well suited to for flooding the deep zone I would suspect that Riley/Tedford would opt for Hawk slanting between zones or whatever route Stevens would have run had he got a decent enough release.

Here is a shot of the play as it develops. Yellow arrow is pointing at the shadow of the SS he’s about 15 yards deep. In this instant, Riley is looking at release of the TE. Red shows the seam.

Hawk runs the slant a bit too straight toward the LB and he’s held (!) as he passes the LB. Unfortunately this is the exact moment that Riley looks at him The arrow point at the shadow of the head of the SS. Given that he’s held (to throw off the timing slightly) and SS in direct path of the route makes this a fairly risky throw. Riley quickly moves on to DJax. Hawkins becomes open very briefly but the window is somewhat tight. A route run hair more inside might have been ideal for against this defense but AF has this fairly well covered.

Now as to this protection lapse being LG’s fault. I SAID NO SUCH THING. I said that LT was justified in expecting help to the inside. As a matter of fact, look at the very next offensive play.

Looks like either he learned the lesson or someone told him.

by BlueWanderer on Jun 5, 2008 10:39 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

A missing picture...

For some reason the first shot didn’t post… Here it is…

by BlueWanderer on Jun 5, 2008 10:41 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Thank you for posting these high-res widescreen pictures both on this blog and on BearInsider. I saw your analysis over on BearInsider and agreed with all but one line. You’re doing a pretty good job educating the Cal fans over on BearInsider.

by HydroTech on Jun 6, 2008 1:32 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

NOT LT’s fault. Since LG had no one over him AND this is a pass play with defense with a 3 man front, he probably expected help to the inside.

A reasonable inference from this statement would be that you’re saying it’s the LG’s fault (or at least he shares more of the fault than the LT). The fact of the matter is somebody was getting beat by the DE. Your statement (before your clarification post) said that the LT was not at fault. Thus, if the LT is not at fault then the LG must be.

by HydroTech on Jun 6, 2008 1:15 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Pass protection of the play following the TD pass to THA1

You are correct in pointing out that it seems as if the LG was told to “help” pass block the weakside DE on the very next pass play but your reasoning is incorrect. Your reasoning (which I am inferring since you don’t explain other than a circle) sees to be merely that the LG has taken a deeper stance and is looking towards the weakside DE that he was told to help out the LT since the LT got beat on the prior play. This is incorrect. This pass play is a half roll right which requires the LT and LG to take deep drops and give up ground to the backside DL. The LG and LT are jointly responsible for any backside defenders. Because on this play Air Force only had one DL defender to the (their) right of the NT, both the LG and LT are responsible for the DE. Thus, the reasoning behind why the LG is looking at the DE on the play above is not because of the result of the prior pass play to THA1 but because of the blocking scheme on this particular play.

by HydroTech on Jun 6, 2008 1:26 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

classics

You know, I really like the characterization of the old site as “classic”. Or “legacy”. But not “legendary”. At least not yet.

I'm still wondering why the Nets didn't draft Leon Powe.

by yellow fever on Jun 5, 2008 6:00 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Riley

I don’t know if you saw the articles on Kevin Riley on Scout.com/Bear Insider (but I guess you probably have). Anyway, the first article describes the events leading up to the Armed Forces Bowl, and the second talks about the game. The latter quotes one of the writers on the site, who essentially says that even Riley’s two incompletions (excluding the hail mary) were on-target or possibly intentionally thrown:

“A success percentage of 65% is about as close to a perfect game as a quarterback can have. And considering that one of Riley’s incompletes resulted from a slip by a wide receiver and another was a Hail Mary that was darned near on target, there was only one ball that could be considered off target – and that may have been a deliberate throw out of bounds due to defensive coverage.”

http://california.scout.com/a.z?s=166&p=2&c=755860
http://california.scout.com/a.z?s=166&p=2&c=756530

by jello on Jun 4, 2008 10:24 AM PDT   0 recs

The two incompletions

The first incompletion was either a mis-read by the WR (Hawkins) or the QB (Riley). The second incompletion was a lame duck out of bounds. I highly doubt it was purposely thrown away. The throw was too far out of bounds to be thrown away. Nevertheless, Riley still had a great game.

by HydroTech on Jun 4, 2008 2:49 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

QB pressure

Do you think the lack of QB pressure was due to them not blitzing as much or that we were just picking it up better.
It would be interesting if they stopped blitzing because they felt they could not get to Riley.

by SocalBear on Jun 4, 2008 10:45 AM PDT   0 recs

Better OL protection

HT wrote: the OL pass blocked pretty flawlessly for the remaining 37.5 minutes of the game and SoCalBear asked “Do you think the lack of QB pressure was due to them not blitzing as much or that we were just picking it up better.

It seems to me that the reason the OL provided better protection was because of Riley’s mobility. Consider that as the AF defense playing against Longshore, you knew that he was basically a statue back there, meaning you could really bring heat without worrying about over-pursuit or a potentially busted play going for big yards on Nate’s legs. Thus, the D can play balls out and really take risks. Plus, they also likely gambled that Nate’s ankle was still bad enough so his accuracy on long passes would be compromised, meaning they could cheat even more against the run.

Riley, on the other hand, could exploit the AF pressure by getting away and converting for yards. The D has to respect his legs, so they can’t bring as much pressure. Also, they have to believe Riley, not being injured, isn’t hampered in his mechanics, so his accuracy under pressure would be greater than Longshore.

At least I think this is the case. And I definitely believe it was the case from the Fucla game on. Nate’s injury was disastrous because it further limited an immobile QB, affected his mechanics, and caused his accuracy and velocity, meaning defenses could cheat against the run. Which they did.

This isn’t meant as an anti-Longshore rant, because he was injured. Anyway, water under the bridge. Looking forward to the next installment.

Go Bears!

by SoCal Oski on Jun 4, 2008 10:59 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

you could also make a case that the AF defense could play the run more heavily in the 1st quarter because 2 of Cal’s top 3 WRs were sitting on the bench. No offense to DeSa, but he’s no DeSean.

So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!

by ragnarok on Jun 4, 2008 11:06 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You could, sure, but those same receivers didn't

produce Jack in prior games when Longshore was at the helm.

by 33SwisherSweet on Jun 4, 2008 11:28 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

well, that's not exactly my point

whether or not our starting receivers produced with Longshore at QB, the mere threat of having them out there (especially DeSean) is enough to make defenders respect the pass a little more. conversely, starting backups with close to zero career catches mean the defense can cheat the run a bit more, because they expect less from the passing game, especially with no “home run” threat out there.

So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!

by ragnarok on Jun 4, 2008 2:57 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

SocalBear

I think SoCal Oski’s response is spot on and is what I would have said too.

by HydroTech on Jun 4, 2008 2:56 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Great, so you don’t think my Final Fantasy I reference was a good enough response for you to co-opt?? What are you more of a Final Fantasy VII fan? I’m telling you the search for Sephiroth was too linear to rank up with those classic games!!

“The Sephiroth is in another castle”

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Jun 4, 2008 3:02 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think Riley demonstrated exactly what was going to happen all day long on the first play of his second series.

by BlueWanderer on Jun 5, 2008 1:07 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

RE: Better OL Protection

SoCal Oski wrote: “It seems to me that the reason the OL provided better protection was because of Riley’s mobility.”

So you’re saying that it wasn’t the magic potion that made the OL pass block better, but it was actually because Riley’s mobility was better than Longshore’s? I absolutely refuse to believe such a ludicrous statement.

by ryandrew on Jun 4, 2008 12:33 PM PDT   0 recs

What I believe SoCal Oski was trying to say is that the ability or Riley to move away from trouble made the defense adjust appropriately, which, in turn made it easier for the OL to increase the effectiveness of their pass blocking.

Longshore was only able to stand in the pocket and if rushed, would throw away the ball. Riley, as shown, could scramble away from trouble (even for a 1st down on one play). The defense had to respect this ability and could not blitz everyone into the pocket, which makes the job easier for the O-Line.

by turkey on Jun 4, 2008 2:02 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

“Wait, but don’t forget about all my magick potions!!!”

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Jun 4, 2008 2:10 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You know I was under the impression that our 2007 OL was supposed to be one of the best especially with the Mack Attack, Stevens (yes he’s a TE but he blocks goddammit) and others. Frankly that didn’t pan out.

Hopefully 2008 brings up that potential.

It always seems to me that one part of the puzzle is always underdeveloped or is missing. We have yet to have a full year every unit clicks. Maybe then we could go to the Rose Bowl or Natn’l Championship.

I used to be RR at the Cal Golden Blogs

by royrules22 on Jun 4, 2008 2:15 PM PDT   0 recs

Exactly

2004 was as close as it gets. All units were clicking that year, yea for Lyman getting hurt, we would’ve been in the NC game. He would’ve made that catch in the endzone at ‘SC no doubt.

by CalBandGreat on Jun 4, 2008 7:09 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Cal vs AF

Is there any place I can download this game as a torrent? I miss Cal football!

by NorCalLonghorn on Jun 4, 2008 4:09 PM PDT   0 recs

torrent site

http://thepiratebay.org/user/randomtool

The game will download as an .iso file, so you will need to burn a dvd of the image from your computer. Then you can watch it on your computer or on a regular dvd player.

by Moscow Doug on Jun 4, 2008 10:55 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

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