Cautious Optimism
by HydroTech on Nov 7, 2008 11:50 PM PST
in California Golden Bears Football
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PrintI'm concerned.
What concerns me is the huge amount of optimism in the Cal fandom regarding the epic game of Cal vs. USC.
Perhaps my memory isn't serving me well, but I think this might be the most optimistic that Cal fans have felt about this game since 2004. This bothers me because I felt like our 2006 and 2007 squads had better chances to beat USC. So the fact that so many fans seem to think that this year's squad will do the unthinkable puzzles me - and worries me.
It worries me because expectations have been raised.
It feels like so many of us have moved from quiet and cautious optimism to expecting to win. Maybe I'm not quite in touch with the fan base mentality and this is not what most people are thinking but it sure feels like expectations for this game are becoming unreasonably high.
And with these high expectations come a harder fall should we lose. This is what worries me.
The bigger they are, the harder they fall.
The above quote applies not only to USC but to Cal too.
Should the team lose, the fan base is going to be even more critical of the players and coaches because expectations were higher.
Gazing into the future, we're going to hear people questioning whether Tedford can ever beat Carroll and USC again. Some might suggest Tedford can't get us past USC again and that we need to start looking for a new coach.
With Longshore starting, he's going to be the scapegoat (regardless if he plays the entire game or not). Longshore, along with the rest of the offense, is facing a USC defense that is giving up 7.1 points a game! A mere 2.47 yards per rushing attempt. A defense that has only given up 5 rushing TDs on the year. A defense that has only given up 2 passing touchdown on the year - but have logged 12 INTs.
Like every game, when a team is losing, the offense will have to throw. Even if Cal is winning, a time will come when the offense will have to throw. Longshore will be throwing into the teeth of one of the greatest defenses USC has ever put together since Carroll has been there. The chances of being victorious against such a defense, with an inexperienced and young OL, and with inexperienced and inconsistent WRs, is small. Very small. Smaller than Cal's chances in previous years.
But I think with these high expectations, people are going to overlook all that. It's not going to matter that Cal is facing one of the best defenses in college football (along with one of the best offenses too!). It's not going to matter that our offense is probably not as good as previous years.
If we lose, Cal fans are going to react like we did when we lost Big Game last year. I think it's going to be ugly.
The criticism will be sharp, and maybe even the worst we've seen this year. Suddenly, Tedford won't be such a great coach. Some will suggest he needs to go. Others are going to be furious that Longshore was tapped to start instead of Riley. People are going to wonder why Longshore started when so many believe that as soon as the clock flips over to the 4th quarter that something inside his brain goes haywire and he can't help but throw 4th quarter INTs. People are going to think that Tedford is an idiot for even thinking about starting Longshore. (As it is, some of us have already given up on the game merely because Longshore is starting)
Nevermind that Riley just got a concussion last week. Nevermind that Riley missed one third of the gameplanning practice days - not to mention that Riley missed out on critical pre-practice film room gameplanning. Nevermind that perhaps even though Riley practiced this week that Tedford has no intention of playing Riley unless Longshore gets injured - or even at all because Riley, like so many other players, lie about their symptoms to get back in the game (regardless of passing their baseline tests).
Should we lose, the fact that Riley practiced this week will mean that he should have started. Hindsight is 20/20. It's easy to say Riley should have started should Cal lose. But will people remember the reasons why Riley didn't start? Namely, his concussion and health concerns. Or are people just going to complain that once again Jeff Tedford squandered another season and matchup against USC by not starting Riley?
Final Thoughts:
In summary, I think expectations are riding too high. We have a chance to beat USC. We always do. But I don't think this year's squad has a better chance than previous years. I could be wrong. I hope I'm wrong. I hope we win. I do. But I'm not getting my hopes up. I fear though, that too many others are getting their hopes up beyond a reasonable level and that the repercussions of such high expectations are going to be bad. Cal fans are going to be even more critical of Tedford and the players when the fans have raised expectations beyond what they should be.
Should we lose this game, in Tedford people will no longer trust - both for losing the game and for starting Longshore. And Longshore, he'll once again become the convenient scape-goat because the guy that throws the ball is responsible for everything which happens on offense (sarcasm).
I hope we beat $C. I do.
But I hope that we remember that if we don't win, and before people begin ripping Longshore and Tedford, that people remember the circumstances:
(1) USC has one of the best defenses in college football. A defense which is only allowing 3.3 yards per play (#1 in the nation).
(2) USC's offense, despite being not as good as previous years, is still a great offense. An offense which is averaging 6.7 yards per play (#9 in the nation).
(3) Cal's offense is inconsistent - averaging 5.8 yards per play (#32 in the nation).
(4) Cal's offensive line is young and inexperienced.
(5) Cal's WRs are young and inexperienced.
(6) This is an away game.
(7) The game is on grass - if grass truly does have a negative effect on the team.
(8) Riley isn't starting. Fact is, Jeff Tedford said Riley got the start against Oregon because his feet give the defense an added factor to deal with. That same logic would apply this week against USC's aggressive pass rush. But for some reason, Riley isn't starting. Is it because Jeff Tedford is playing favorites? No. Riley sustained a concussion last week - remember, Riley didn't actually get cleared to practice until Wednesday. The concussion undoubtedly prevented Riley from fully participating in film-study early in the week, and gameplanning. Riley also missed one third of the team's gameplan-installing practice days. More than likely, Riley is behind the curve for this week's gameplan when compared to Longshore due to the concussion. So Cal's more dynamic offensive threat at QB isn't starting.
*****
Cautious optimism, Bears. Cautious optimism. Let's not let our hopes inflate our expectations unreasonably high.
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It feels like so many of us have moved from quiet and cautious optimism to expecting to win. Maybe I’m not quite in touch with the fan base mentality and this is not what most people are thinking but it sure feels like expectations for this game are becoming unreasonably high.
Should we expect to lose or something? Gee this sounds like flat out defeatism. You disappoint me Hydro, very, very much!
And with these high expectations come a harder fall should we lose. This is what worries me.
Ah, duh! If you want us to hide our heads in fear you have come to the wrong fanbase. No longer are Cal fans timid little Bear cubs. We have grown into full sized adult Bears now. We expect to win and we deserve it! This team and its long suffering fans deserve a Rose Bowl!
With Longshore starting, he’s going to be the scapegoat (regardless if he plays the entire game or not).
Well, he is the de facto President of the team. If we were to lose to the terrorists in the coming months, would not Obama be blamed? With power comes expectations and responsibility. Longshore would have to play magnificently to avoid criticism should we lose.
If we lose, Cal fans are going to react like we did when we lost Big Game last year. I think it’s going to be ugly.
You damn right! But hey, don’t worry my friend, cuz we’re going to win! YEAH BABY! GO BEARS! BEAT the SC SCUMBAGS!
"I look forward to a future in which our country will match its military strength with our moral restraint, its wealth with our wisdom, its power with our purpose."
John F. Kennedy
I’m sorry if the post came across as us expecting to lose. I wouldn’t say I expect the team to lose, but I would say my expectations of our chances to win are not as high as it seemingly everyone else’s expectations. That’s besides the point of the post. The point I was trying to make is that I’m concerned that fans are building up their expectations too high and that if we lose, we’re going to bash the players and coaches even harder then they deserve because of those overly high expectations set by the fans. I’m not saying coaches and players are beyond criticism, but I think the criticism they will receive (should we lose) will be more than they deserve. I fear that fans will forget the circumstances of our team (inexperience and inconsistency on offense, starting QB not starting, etc.) as well as the circumstances on USC’s team (#1 defense in the nation, #9 offense in the nation, tons of depth, home team, etc.) and will instead just find the game as another reason why Tedford & Co. and Longshore are inept.
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
But, Oregon State beat SC. Stanfurd beat them in LA last year. They are not invincible. Every year the media makes them out to be goliaths and the last couple years the’ve been defeated, by those oh so inferior Pac-10 teams. Well, damnit, why not Cal? No one has played them as close as consistently as Cal over the past 6 years.
So, are my expectations high? Yeah. But they’re always high, as they should be. Though, I do consider myself one of the more rationale Cal fans seeing as despite the high expectations, I’m used to disappointment from my Golden Bears, Bills, and Sabres. Oh the pain.
I'm going to go with Sarcastic Optimism
For example: I think we will be behind by fourteen points until the fourth quarter when Sanchez throws three interceptions that all get run back for touchdowns.
Or: We will be behind by three touchdowns when eleven bolts of lightning strike the USC defense at the same time. Instead of stopping the game, the refs allow Cal to keep playing the game where we are able to score easily against the charred corpses. Oh, I forgot to mention the lion attack (African) that took out most of the USC sideline.
Or: The Play! 2008! Four times!
I'm thinking Cal has a good chance
and might actually win.
But I’m not going to go berserk if they lose.
$C’s a great team, and T-fizzle’s a great coach. $C loses the wimpy games, not the tough ones.
I’m proud of our Bears and, win or lose, I’ll support T-fizzle 4 life! (Otherwise Marshawn will axe me).
Two-thirds of the earth is covered by water, the other third is covered by Kotsay...in his prime...like 3 years ago.
I already purchased tickets...
…but win or lose, you have to stick with the BEARS, unconditional support has to be shown. Regardless of what the experts say, or whatever the facts say, this is why we play the game because anything can happen.
by CaliforniaCMB on Nov 8, 2008 12:54 AM PST up reply actions
To be honest
Most Cal fans already won this week. That’s probably what’s causing this unbridled optimism.
A loss at USC will make people angry and disappointed for a little bit, but it would all disappear if we got right back up and won our last three games. It’s perfectly normal to feel the ups and downs, especially against our feared and hated rival, but we’ll regain our perspective pretty quickly and realize that where we are is still a drastic improvement over where we’ve been.
Bears fans will probably vacillate too often between the extremes, but I think this season we’ve only been thinking of the message board types and blog commenters who expect too much and live and breathe Cal football in their being. On the whole, most reasonable Cal fans have been deeply embedded in the culture of Tedford football for so long that they just desperately want to see us break through. They want the Rose Bowl so badly that they’ll look past the statistics and hope for possibilities of perfection. Which doesn’t seem wrong at all. I’ve seen much worse fan reaction in my lifetime.
Honestly, Cal fans are pretty light compared to other fanbases. USC fans criticize Carroll for not going undefeated every season. Auburn fans have had a sustained run at excellence including a 13-0 season and now they want to fire Tuberville. Tennessee fans came a few errant Ainge throws from winning the SEC title last season, and now Fulmer is gone.
Tedford and Longshore have had it fairly easy compared to the gripings of other college football fans. Most of us just shrug it off and go back to enjoying the rest of our lives. There are a few firebrands, but they’re caught in the moment and usually settle down as time moves along. And look toward next year.
So yeah, it’s easy to be optimistic after the events of the past week. And perhaps we’ll lose and the fans will overreact. But that always happens.
However, you bring up stats. Here are a few you’ve neglected.
Obviously the defensive matchups look like a standstill, so it comes down to which offense will break through, make the big plays and the least mistakes. The Trojans have the advantage being at home…but I think their odds of winning are slightly inflated. Perception does not match reality.
And even then, college football isn’t like the NFL; statistics usually don’t tell the entire story at the end of the day. It’s characterized by massive mood swings, emotional vacillations, of 18-24 year olds having to step up on a weekly basis and provide the same effort they give to the field. On paper USC should beat Cal probably 85 times out of 100. But they don’t play games on paper.
You also have to factor in how badly Cal’s veterans want this. Longshore, Follett, Mack, Syd’Quan, they haven’t seen Cal beat USC. These are grizzled college veterans who were here in 2006 and 2007 when they played Trojan teams of comparably the same value and just came up short when it mattered. Now they’re given a third chance at redemption, at battling all out for the crown. You don’t usually get three chances at anything in college football. Don’t the odds suggest that we’re due?
I have a special feeling about tomorrow, just like when we played in Oregon in 2006 and Tennessee in 2007. Anything is possible.
(Damn, this should be a blog post too. Excuse me.)
by BearsNecessity on Nov 8, 2008 5:40 AM PST reply actions 3 recs
No way out
This game has been bugging me for days. Because no matter who wins, I lose. Why? Well, for one thing, the dear wife is a member of the Trojan Family (which makes me a Trojan In-Law). But even aside from that, we want to Pac-10 to do well. To do that, USC has to do well. To do that, they have to not only beat but absolutely clobber shudder the Bears, to stay in contention for the national title. As a Bear, I recognize this, but it is painful. So if the Bears win, USC drops several spots, and there is no Pac 10 team in the top ten. But if the Bears lose, hey, I’m a Bear, I don’t like it. Even worse, let’s say the Bears play respectably close but lose by a field goal in the final seconds. It’s the worst of both worlds—Bears lose, and USC drops for not running up the score, and there is no Pac 10 team in the top ten.
This morning I realized there is a way out. The truth is, USC isn’t as good as everyone thinks. Oregon State was not a fluke. USC doesn’t deserve to be ranked that high. The Bears though, have tremendous potential that no one has yet seen. They are really the best team in the country. They’ve just been working out a few kinks. Tonight’s game will feature the kinkless Bears exposing the phantom Trojans, by cruising over them with a four touchdown margin. Cal and USC trade places in the rankings; Cal moves up to #8 and USC drops to #21.
Can it happen? Will it happen? Am I delusional? According to the time, I have 11 hours 17 minutes left to dream.
If Penn State, Texas Tech and Alabama all go down…yes they are.
by BearsNecessity on Nov 8, 2008 8:04 AM PST up reply actions
Texas Tech to its credit has had a tough schedule and its remaining schedule is tough. They will certainly deserve the title if they win out.
Penn State has two unranked teams and Michigan State left. They won’t lose.
Alabama has two unranked teams and LSU left. They won’t lose.
Utah has one unranked team and BYU left. They won’t lose.
Sorry, but USC is not in contention for the national title. Isn’t.
Stanfurd Delendum Est.
I'm with BearsNecessity
They certainly don’t control their own destiny, either in the Pac-10 or nationally (hard to believe when you consider they haven’t and won’t play a non-BCS team, but that’s just Pac-10 scheduling for you), but there are many situations in which they make it. It’s not likely, but it could happen.
The main problem is that a 1 loss Big 12 South team will make it it front of USC every time. Whether it’s Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, or T. Tech, you can’t play 3 top 10 teams and not be rewarded for beating 2 of them. On the other hand, only the division champion is an issue for the NC.
Alabama will probably lose in the SEC championship to Florida, but I would put even money right now on Florida St. beating the Gators as that game’s in Tallahassee. Alabama’s loss should disqualify them from the NC. Florida will not make it with 2 losses.
Which leaves Penn St. While it would be pleasant to see Michigan St. beat them (and therefore validate the Bears that much more), I agree that won’t happen. At this point, I think it’s a race to see who plays Penn St. in the NC.
I don’t think there’s any chance that Utah would be considered for the NC.
What I think is more likely to happen is that Oregon St. wins out, not what I want, but, sorry, and USC wins out and everyone can finally shut up when USC beats an SEC team in the Sugar Bowl. But that’s just what I think.
I don’t see Florida State competing with Florida even if it’s in Tallahassee… Ever heard of Wake Forest?
I think Oregon State won’t beat Arizona in Tucson. I don’t know if they’ll beat either Cal or Oregon either. We can’t judge how good they are based on wins against UW, Wazzu, and ASU. Jacquizz is a monsterback, but he and his brother can be stopped.
...nuh nuh nuh gone
by Thoroughbred on Nov 8, 2008 10:16 AM PST up reply actions
Ever heard of Ole Miss?
I agree that Florida on a neutral field, and probably even in Tallahassee, will be favored. But Florida St. is going to have the best defense they’ve played all year and will most certainly be the most likely chance for them to pick up a 2nd loss before the BCS. Furthermore, it’s a rivalry game and a chance for Bobby Bowden to finish on a positive note. I really think that game will be close, hence my guess at even money.
Your points about OSU’s opponents are noted, and they apply equally well to any assessment of USC’s defense.
Alabama has an SEC title game left with Florida. They won’t lose that either?
Penn State’s signature win is a 10-6 snoozefest with Ohio State. And it took a fumble recovery to get there. The probability of them losing one of their last three games isn’t that low.
by BearsNecessity on Nov 8, 2008 9:07 AM PST up reply actions
Bama's only signature win is against Georgia too
It was impressive.
But the Clemson game which propelled them up so high in the rankings really isn’t that impressive.
It’s telling that Bama’s average strength of schedule is worse than USC’s.
...nuh nuh nuh gone
by Thoroughbred on Nov 8, 2008 10:21 AM PST up reply actions
Their schedule would only matter if Penn State lost. USC is not going to get past an unbeaten team for the BCS title game.
So two out of the three contenders have to lose. Penn State isn’t going to lose given their schedule. Texas Tech could lose, especially at Oklahoma. Alabama could lose their SEC title game, which I’d thought about. And of course, USC has to win and it would help their case if Oregon State continued to win.
Ok, it could happen, but it’s pretty unlikely.
Stanfurd Delendum Est.
I want us to win
… but I am expecting a loss… a close loss. This may sound weird but I think if we really want to beat USC more often, we should schedule them earlier. It also doesn’t help that there seems to be some hype going into this game, so it’s unlikely that we’ll be catching them off guard.
Anyways, I do feel that the score will pretty close unless our offense regresses and plays like it did earlier this season (like UCLA).
I expect Cal to lose.
I don’t really see a problem with this. If someone asks you your expectation of a game in which we play at USC, would you really have a greater than 50% likelihood of a win? Certainly not. That’s all my expectation is, a statement of probability.
I’m a realist. Of course I want Cal to win, hope Cal wins, think Cal has a chance to win. I’m just saying it’s not as likely as the other outcome.
I don’t think anybody should take it too hard if Cal loses. We have our backup QB in, receivers so green they blend into the turf, and are playing on the road against the premier program of the conference over the past eight years.
I certainly wouldn’t be content with a 35-point blowout, as that would suggest deeper issues, but Cal has played U$C tough almost every year and while another close loss would suck, it certainly wouldn’t be any cause to hang your head apart from the Rose Bowl implications.
Of course, the expectations for Cal to lose that triple-OT game back in the day (was that 2003? How time flies) were probably just as great…that’s why they play the games (/berman)
I’m not going to sit here and say we are going to lose, that is loser talk. I am realistic about the situation but I would never admit it to a trojan fan. I am a bear fan and I want a win every week and that is how I am going to approach every game, regardless of the opponent.
Let’s make excuses with the stats after game, if need be that is.
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