Inside The Numbers: USC

by TwistNHook on Nov 7, 2008 2:22 PM PST in Football

Going up against USC is like going up against the Death Star. It's white and round and there is a weird dimple. It's scary and intense. But if you manage to shoot Mark Sanchez in the face with your laser missile gun, you'll probably win.

Failing a space assault on the Coliseum, the Cal football team will have to take the field against USC. This............could be rough. Can Syd'Quan shoot laser missiles? I sure hope so! Let's take a look at USC and see some of the players we'll be rooting against tomorrow.

                           2008 USC Trojans Football
                USC Overall Team Statistics (as of Nov 01, 2008)
                                   All games

TEAM STATISTICS                         USC          OPP
--------------------------------------------------------
SCORING.......................          322           57
  Points Per Game.............         40.2          7.1
FIRST DOWNS...................          180          117
  Rushing.....................           75           46
  Passing.....................           96           53
  Penalty.....................            9           18
RUSHING YARDAGE...............         1633          673
  Yards gained rushing........         1765          963
  Yards lost rushing..........          132          290
  Rushing Attempts............          309          272
  Average Per Rush............          5.3          2.5
  Average Per Game............        204.1         84.1
  TDs Rushing.................           18            5
PASSING YARDAGE...............         2048         1020
  Att-Comp-Int................    239-156-8   236-126-12
  Average Per Pass............          8.6          4.3
  Average Per Catch...........         13.1          8.1
  Average Per Game............        256.0        127.5
  TDs Passing.................           24            2
TOTAL OFFENSE.................         3681         1693
  Total Plays.................          548          508
  Average Per Play............          6.7          3.3
  Average Per Game............        460.1        211.6
KICK RETURNS: #-Yards.........       12-262       23-422
PUNT RETURNS: #-Yards.........       30-295         8-98
INT RETURNS: #-Yards..........       12-271         8-49
KICK RETURN AVERAGE...........         21.8         18.3
PUNT RETURN AVERAGE...........          9.8         12.2
INT RETURN AVERAGE............         22.6          6.1
FUMBLES-LOST..................         13-6         14-8
PENALTIES-Yards...............       67-603       48-372
  Average Per Game............         75.4         46.5
PUNTS-Yards...................      28-1054      59-2501
  Average Per Punt............         37.6         42.4
  Net punt average............         32.7         35.4
TIME OF POSSESSION/Game.......        30:45        29:15
3RD-DOWN Conversions..........       49/106       33/118
  3rd-Down Pct................          46%          28%
4TH-DOWN Conversions..........        10/14          5/9
  4th-Down Pct................          71%          56%
SACKS BY-Yards................       19-142         9-57
MISC YARDS....................            0           24
TOUCHDOWNS SCORED.............           44            7
FIELD GOALS-ATTEMPTS..........          5-6          3-9
ON-SIDE KICKS.................          0-0          0-0
RED-ZONE SCORES...............    32-40 80%    10-15 67%
RED-ZONE TOUCHDOWNS...........    28-40 70%     7-15 47%
PAT-ATTEMPTS..................    43-44 98%      6-7 86%
ATTENDANCE....................       341544       190331
  Games/Avg Per Game..........      4/85386      4/47583

Ok. I mean this is just sick. Scoring 322-57. 322 to 57!!!! Jesus Christ! Only 211 yards per game given up. I mean the numbers just speak for themselves. This is one of the finest defenses you've ever seen. Interestingly, even though USC is crushing its opponents, it only has 40 more plays than them. So, a quick strike offense.

If Cal's Home D can show up, which generally limits the big play, then maybe, just maybe, we can hold USC at bay. Maybe.

Note that they rush for over 200 yards a game. That's because a)blowouts lead to rushing and b)their rushing is better than their passing.

RUSHING         GP  Att Gain Loss  Net   Avg  TD Long Avg/G
-----------------------------------------------------------
Gable, C.J.      8   64  422   12  410   6.4   6   50  51.2
Johnson, Stafon  8   74  405   11  394   5.3   5   41  49.2
McKnight, Joe    6   50  374   13  361   7.2   0   41  60.2
Green, B.        6   32  173    5  168   5.2   3   37  28.0
Tyler, Marc      4   19  103    1  102   5.4   1   24  25.5
Havili, Stanley  8   12   67    0   67   5.6   0   11   8.4
Bradford, Allen  3   14   57    0   57   4.1   1   15  19.0
Johnson, Ronald  8    3   32    0   32  10.7   0   14   4.0
Williams, D.     8    3   29    0   29   9.7   0   16   3.6
McCoy, Anthony   8    0   23    0   23   0.0   0    0   2.9
Sanchez, Mark    8   28   66   58    8   0.3   2   15   1.0
Green, Garrett   8    1    3    0    3   3.0   0    3   0.4
Goodman, Adam    8    1    1    0    1   1.0   0    1   0.1
Mustain, Mitch   6    4   10   18   -8  -2.0   0    8  -1.3
Team             6    4    0   14  -14  -3.5   0    0  -2.3
Total..........  8  309 1765  132 1633   5.3  18   50 204.1
Opponents......  8  272  963  290  673   2.5   5   26  84.1

And now you see their stable of running backs. Gable. Johnson. McKnight. McKnight missed the last game due to injury. Maybe that'll slow him a bit, I don't now. They have 3 RBs with over 50 carries on the year. And the worst is averaging over 5.3 yards a carry. Ai!

They all average about 50 or more yards a game, which shows the depth. That's what is so amazing here. We think we have depth with 2 great RBs, but they have 3 great RBs. It will be a herculean task to stop these guys.

We were just able to stop Oregon's amazing run game. But there are 3 key differences here:

1. It's on the road.

2. USC has a passing game.

3. It's not raining.

Joe McKnight via graphics.fansonly.com

CJ Gable via graphics.fansonly.com

Stafon Johnson via graphics.fansonly.com

PASSING         GP   Effic Cmp-Att-Int   Pct  Yds  TD Lng Avg/G
---------------------------------------------------------------
Sanchez, Mark    8  163.28  144-221-7   65.2 1884  22  63 235.5
Mustain, Mitch   6  194.29   10-14-1    71.4  150   2  59  25.0
Corp, Aaron      4   79.40    2-4-0     50.0   14   0  12   3.5
Total..........  8  163.70  156-239-8   65.3 2048  24  63 256.0
Opponents......  8   82.32 126-236-12   53.4 1020   2  39 127.5

And here is the passing. This is the "weak" part of the offense. Mark Sanchez isn't exactly a Leinart or Palmer. But he still has a rating of 163. He still completes 65% of his passes. And this is the "weak" part of the team. He has 22 TDs to 7 Ints.

Our hope is apparently to try to slow the running game to force Sanchez to make throws. He is 10X the QB Masoli is when it comes to throwing, but he apparently is not adverse to forcing throws at time.

And our D is opportunistic when it comes to ints. So, there is a glimmer of hope here. A glimmer.

Mark Sanchez via graphics.fansonly.com

RECEIVING       GP  No.  Yds   Avg  TD Long Avg/G
-------------------------------------------------
Williams, D.     8   30  451  15.0   5   34  56.4
Turner, Patrick  8   29  433  14.9   7   42  54.1
Johnson, Ronald  8   21  399  19.0   5   63  49.9
Havili, Stanley  8   18  199  11.1   2   35  24.9
McKnight, Joe    6   13  146  11.2   1   32  24.3
McCoy, Anthony   8    7   79  11.3   1   21   9.9
Ayles, Blake     8    6   41   6.8   1   13   5.1
Ausberry, David  8    5   80  16.0   1   59  10.0
Gable, C.J.      8    5   42   8.4   0   23   5.2
Johnson, Stafon  8    5   34   6.8   0   12   4.2
Hazelton, Vidal  5    5   33   6.6   0    9   6.6
Bradford, Allen  3    4   44  11.0   0   17  14.7
Patterson, T.    7    3   25   8.3   0   17   3.6
Ellison, Rhett   4    2   33  16.5   0   21   8.2
Tyler, Marc      4    1   10  10.0   1   10   2.5
Goodman, Adam    8    1    0   0.0   0    0   0.0
Miller, Jimmy    5    1   -1  -1.0   0    0  -0.2
Total..........  8  156 2048  13.1  24   63 256.0
Opponents......  8  126 1020   8.1   2   39 127.5

Patrick Turner is the guys USC fans love to hate. Apparently, DeSean went to Cal, because Patrick Turner was going to USC or something like that. Not sure of the reasons, per se, but I've heard rumors. And Turner was underwhelming while DeSean was Tha1. Now, Turner and the WRs are showing their promise. They have 6 guys who average over 10 yards a reception. These really are cartoon numbers when you add in the rushing numbers. They have 3 guys who average essentially 15+ yards a reception. I mean it's just mind boggling.

These guys will be a challenge for our secondary. We saw how Arizona's physical WRs were able to shed tackles for extra yards. Arizona passed, passed, passed on us very successfully. And Arizona doesn't exactly have the running game USC does (or at least they shouldnt have if their backup 3rd string red shirt high school RB didnt run for 8,000 yards on us).

Writing this post is depressing me.

Patrick Turner via graphics.fansonly.com

Damian Williams via graphics.fansonly.com

Ronald Johnson via grfx.cstv.com

                       |--------Tackles--------| |-Sacks-| |---Pass Def---| |-Fumbles-| Blkd
DEFENSIVE LEADERS   GP Solo  Ast Total   TFL/Yds   No-Yds  Int-Yds BrUp QBH Rcv-Yds  FF Kick Saf
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
58 Maualuga, Rey     7   25   22    47   1.5-1       .       2-48     1   .    .      .    .   .
10 Cushing, Brian    8   25   20    45   5.5-22   1.5-11      .       4   .    .      1    .   .
43 Maiava, Kaluka    8   26   18    44   5.5-13      .        .       1   .    .      .    .   .
4  Ellison, Kevin    7   19   23    42   2.5-2       .       1-0      7   .    .      .    .   .
47 Matthews, Clay    8   19   19    38   6.0-52   4.0-38      .       2   .   2-0     2    1   .
0B Mays, Taylor      8   25   11    36   2.0-7       .        .       3   .    .      .    .   .
7  Harris, Cary      8   20    9    29   3.0-4       .       1-0      3   .    .      1    .   .
75 Moala, Fili       8    8   12    20   5.5-21   2.0-14      .       .   .   1-0     .    2   .
84 Moore, Kyle       8    8   12    20   6.5-42   3.0-30      .       1   .   1-0     .    .   .
26 Harris, Will      8   12    7    19   2.5-11      .       1-28     1   .    .      .    .   .
1G Morgan, Michael   7    7   11    18   3.0-8       .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
36 Pinkard, Josh     8   13    4    17      .        .        .       2   .   2-0     2    .   .
0F Smith, Malcolm    8   10    6    16   0.5-1       .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
93 Griffen, E.       7    6    5    11   3.5-26   3.5-26      .       .   .    .      .    .   .
19 McAllister, D.    8    6    3     9      .        .       2-37     .   .    .      .    .   .
54 Galippo, Chris    5    2    7     9   2.0-3       .       1-50     1   .    .      .    .   .
94 Armstead, A.      7    4    4     8   3.0-9    1.0-6       .       .   .    .      .    .   .
91 Casey, Jurrell    8    3    5     8   1.0-1       .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
15 Thomas, Kevin     8    6    2     8   1.0-8    1.0-8      3-53     6   .    .      .    .   .
24 Wright, S.        2    5    3     8      .        .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
0A Bryant, T.J.      4    5    1     6      .        .       1-55     2   .    .      .    .   .
99 Spicer, Averell   6    3    3     6   1.0-1       .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
14 Green, Garrett    8    2    3     5      .        .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
37 Campbell, J.      7    3    2     5      .        .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
TM Team              6    5    .     5   3.0-4       .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
27 Jones, Marshall   8    3    1     4      .        .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
2E Harper, Daniel    5    3    1     4      .        .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
57 Garratt, Nick     7    2    1     3   0.5-0       .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
44 Tupou, C.         8    2    1     3   1.0-2       .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
45 Goodman, Adam     8    1    2     3      .        .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
8  Johnson, Ronald   8    1    2     3      .        .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
97 Jackson, Malik    6    3    .     3   2.0-8    2.0-8       .       .   .    .      1    .   .
35 Kaveinga, Uona    8    3    .     3   1.0-4       .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
4F Cumming, Ross     4    1    1     2      .        .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
81 Washington, G.    6    1    1     2   0.5-1    0.5-1       .       .   .   2-0     .    .   .
1  Turner, Patrick   8    2    .     2      .        .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
21 Bradford, Allen   3    .    1     1      .        .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
4D Woidneck, Greg    8    1    .     1      .        .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
1J Shoemate, D.J.    5    1    .     1      .        .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
42 Stephens, Scott   2    1    .     1      .        .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
79 Weiss, Andrew     1    1    .     1      .        .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
98 Harris, DaJohn    5    .    1     1   0.5-0    0.5-0       .       .   .    .      .    .   .
68 Lewis, Butch      7    .    1     1      .        .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
3H Erickson, R.      1    .    1     1      .        .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
1H Buehler, David    8    1    .     1      .        .        .       .   .    .      .    .   .
   Total..........   8  294  226   520    64-251   19-142   12-271   34   .   8-0     7    3   .
   Opponents......   8  343  200   543    30-102    9-57     8-49    22   .   6-4     5    1   .

And that was the offense. The weak side of the ball. This is the defense. The strong side. One note: Ellison will not be facing us. So, his 42 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and 7 pass break ups are out. But I am sure USC has a 5 star blue chip back up to step in.

Maualuga (Cincho Ocho) is the stud here. He leads the team with 2 Ints. He leads the team with total tackles. He is second in solo tackles, behind only Cushing.

Note: Cushing has 5.5 tackles for loss. 5.5! You'd think that would lead the team, but it's actually tied with 2 other players for 3rd. WHAT?!?! They have Kyle moore with 6.5 TFL. Clay Matthews with 6 TFL. And then Maiava, Cushing, and Moala with 5.5. Our OLine is going to have its hands full here. We get Malele back, I believe, but Edwards is still going to be starting. Edwards played well last week against a fierce Oregon rush. Generally, the OLine played better than expected against that fierce Oregon rush.

This will be another huge test for the OLine. Don't be shocked if there are a lot of TFLs in this game. We'll probably be trying to run a lot with Best and Vereen.

Rey Maualuga via graphics.fansonly.com

Brian Cushing via graphics.fansonly.com

Clay Matthews via graphics.fansonly.com

Kaluka Maiava via grfx.cstv.com

Final Thoughts: Writing this post has depressed me greatly. This is a team that he crushed its opposition. Hopefully, Cal has been studying that OSU game furiously and can determine how the Beavs managed to pull off the upset.

I see this either being a huge USC blowout or a close Cal win. It depends really on which D shows up. As noted before, USC has a quick strike offense. They are crushing their opponents, but only have like 40 more plays than them on the year. So, I think our scheme will work to try to limit their "quick strike"-osity. That's the scheme we always use, anyways.

Of course, the problem is execution. Home D executes perfectly, holding a sick Oregon running game in check. Road D has problems executing, allowing a backup Arizona RB to run wild. Given that this game is on the road, Road D seems more likely. But who knows?

If Home D shows up and the Pain Train is at his Pain Trainiest and SydGOD is at his SydGODiest, then it will be a low scoring game. I don't see our offense exploding against them. Their defense is beyond unbelievable. The OLine is in shambles, but getting Malele back can only help. The OLine was stunningly good against Oregon. Can they repeat the magic(k)? Seems doubtful, but crazier things have happened.

The path to victory seems like this: Home D hold USC offense in check, mostly by forcing Sanchez to make some poor decisions. They pick him a few times in key areas. Offense does just enough to eke out the victory. Longshore plays mistake-free ball. We probably don't need him to play perfect ball, just mistake free.

If we turn the ball over a few times and then Road D shows up, it could be a long day, though. Go Bears!

Go Bears!

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nice jackets

Two-thirds of the earth is covered by water, the other third is covered by Kotsay...in his prime...like 3 years ago.

by carp on Nov 7, 2008 3:00 PM PST reply reply 0 recs

Keys to a Cal upset victory

1. Win the turnover battle
2. Limit USC on third down (and fourth down!)
3. Win the penalty battle
(4. Get in the Trojans’ heads with comments about their red blazers; it looks like they all just won the Chinese Masters golf championship, at Chairman Mao National Golf Club. And what’s up with Sanchez’s hair??)

As much attention as there is on Cal’s uncertain, inconsistent quarterback position, I think this game really comes down to Mark Sanchez. If he plays well, limits his mistakes, and makes enough big plays to compensate for whatever mistakes USC does make, then the Trojans win. Easily.

But USC is mistake-prone enough, and Cal has enough potential playmakers on both sides of the ball, that the Bears at least have a puncher’s chance. If I were Jeff Tedford—and you should all be very thankful I’m not—I’d be showing the Bears a recording of Buster Douglas’s victory over Mike Tyson. That’s the kind of effort it’s going to take.

Go Bears!

by California Pete on Nov 7, 2008 3:24 PM PST reply reply 0 recs

Given that the game relies heavily on Sanchez, it is even better for us that his ankle looks like it’s going to limit him during the game.

ಠ_ಠ

by Berkelium97 on Nov 7, 2008 3:33 PM PST up reply reply 0 recs

My hair looked just like that at his age....

it’s a quasi hispanic thing.

Go Bears Go

by Rocksanddirt on Nov 7, 2008 3:37 PM PST up reply reply 0 recs

I think Mark Sanchez has a low flow shower faucet!

Please disregard the above ramblings as those of a clearly delusional fan.

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Nov 7, 2008 3:39 PM PST up reply reply 0 recs

I just knew I had seen that look before.

Go Bears!

by California Pete on Nov 7, 2008 4:28 PM PST up reply reply 0 recs

It's Dirty Sanchez or Sanchezosaur

Two-thirds of the earth is covered by water, the other third is covered by Kotsay...in his prime...like 3 years ago.

by carp on Nov 7, 2008 5:28 PM PST up reply reply 0 recs

I was feeling pessimistic

I still am.

OSU ran right at them, and were successful in blocking the lb’s, that is always the key to beating them. Our rushing to the sides, will not be successful except on misdirection plays (the end around/1/2 reverse we run a fair bit).

Go Bears Go

by Rocksanddirt on Nov 7, 2008 3:39 PM PST reply reply 0 recs

Ok. Triple reverse flea flicker it is.

Please disregard the above ramblings as those of a clearly delusional fan.

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Nov 7, 2008 3:41 PM PST up reply reply 0 recs

if we get the running game going

you know we are going bust out the fleas at some point.

Go Bears Go

by Rocksanddirt on Nov 7, 2008 4:01 PM PST up reply reply 0 recs

I believe the technical term for a 1/2 reverse is just a ‘verse.’

by sec119 on Nov 7, 2008 3:55 PM PST up reply reply 0 recs

well....but it's more of an end around

as we fake the dive, and pitch to the wr and not always to the opposite side from the dive fake.

we also run a true reverse, with a fake sweep toss, and toss to the wr going the other way. we have generally less success at that play this year.

Go Bears Go

by Rocksanddirt on Nov 7, 2008 4:01 PM PST up reply reply 0 recs

Is it just me, or does Mauajkfaksjfthalalalala

look like he’s done some time, no?

Two-thirds of the earth is covered by water, the other third is covered by Kotsay...in his prime...like 3 years ago.

by carp on Nov 7, 2008 5:30 PM PST reply reply 0 recs

Use the Force Nate

The exhaust port on the Death Star is about the size of a Wamprat which is about the same size of the numbers on the jerseys, that said I am hopefully pessimistic.

Also does anyone else think that they guy Clay Matthews is a dirty SOB?

by CountDuku on Nov 7, 2008 5:39 PM PST reply reply 0 recs

Longshore plays mistake free ball?

ahhh, right.

alaska A residing in colorado.

by ak_A on Nov 7, 2008 5:52 PM PST reply reply 0 recs

essentially what everyone is saying...

…is that cal pretty much has to play close to flawlessly on both sides of the ball to have any chance of pulling the upset. if they haven’t done this yet all season, even the glass half full side of me cannot see in any way how we can expect that theoretically “perfect” cal performance to magically show up tomorrow – on the road of all places.

sigh….i hope i am terribly, terribly wrong about all of this.

i'm here to clean your pool but i don't have a pool *bowchica bowow*

by ch0ster on Nov 7, 2008 8:12 PM PST reply reply 0 recs

I don't think so...

I don’t think that Cal has to play flawlessly. Being as subjective as possible (that’s a stretch, here) I’d prefer to have Cal’s defense to $C’s in this game. Granted, $C doesn’t give up many points, but they commit A LOT of dumb penalties and are susceptible to speedy backs (Rogers and Antolin). Meanwhile, Cal’s D turns folks over and scores points — that could be huge in this game. I think the offenses are about even — both are underwhelming at times — though how many times has CJ Gable just broken my heart. It’s actually a good thing that McKnight will play in this game because it means fewer carries for Gable, and McKnight is going to turn it over. As for special teams, Cal is WAY better than it has been the last 3 years, and Ross has really been coming into his own.
I’ll admit that I’m a little nervous about Longshore being the starter — he was absolutely horrible at $C 2 years ago — though he wasn’t helped at all by the play calling. But he is a 5th year senior, he has been looking good, and he’s gonna be motivated for this game.
My keys to the game:
1) Cal HAS to win the turnover battle (I’m with ya’, California Pete)
2) Jahvid Best has to get A LOT of touches and not turn it over (he’s exactly the kind of back that can hurt $C, and he should be extra motivated after last week); if Cal can have the same run success that it usually does against the Trojenz, this thing is ON
3) Riley HAS to get in the game, and it’s gotta be when Cal is not trailing by more than a score. He will make things happen against the $C D. I’m really hoping that Tedford rotates the qb’s in this game just to give the D more to deal with.
4) Georgiooooooooooo has to be on his game. No missed field goals or shanked kick offs, por favore. He’s been Il Magnifico lately, so I’m pretty confident about him.

by RickySanchez on Nov 7, 2008 8:49 PM PST up reply reply 0 recs

Georgio is quite the spicy meatball!

Please disregard the above ramblings as those of a clearly delusional fan.

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Nov 8, 2008 7:39 AM PST up reply reply 0 recs

4B. Let's not forget about the other half of the kicking game

If this becomes a tense field-position battle, Bryan Anger just might become one of the most important players on the field. Cal has entered the USC game in previous years in much, MUCH better shape on offense than this year, but I’m not sure if Tedford’s Bears have ever before brought this kind of defense and punting ability. That’s why I give them a puncher’s chance.

If Cal wins, it will be in the style of 1985, a day when the Bears made only two plays on offense all afternoon—one of them off a mishandled ball in the backfield—but that was enough to win 14-6. Or it will be in the style of some of those classic Deltha O’Neal games in the ’90s, where the Bears won despite doing nothing, NOTHING, on offense all day.

Go Bears!

by California Pete on Nov 8, 2008 9:41 AM PST up reply reply 0 recs