Inside the Numbers : Stanfurd

Well, here it goes again.  The nervous feelings.  The pit of the stomach.  A Cal fan never feels confident against Stanford.  Especially not one who came of age during the Holmoecaust.  And ESPECIALLY not one who just watched the last two Cal games.  This has been an up and down season for Cal.  Rough losses.  Big victories.  It's almost over and we (hopefully) have a soft landing at the end.  Although Stanford has clearly shown some vivacity this season.  They managed to do two things we couldn't, beat OSU and Arizona. 

And score more than 3 points against USC.  Let's take a look at the nuts and bolts of this Stanford team to see who we will be facing off against tomorrow. 

Here it goes again......

Finally, we've been posting a lot recently.  Check it: YouTube Thurday, RoundtableB-Ball Recap; Arizona analysis; Marshawn v. Browns; Top25; Bowl Scenarios; OSU Thoughts; Pete Newell Memories; Big Game Memories

 

All numbers are from here.

 

TEAM STATISTICS  STAN  OPP 
SCORING  299  292 
   Points Per Game  27.2  26.5 
FIRST DOWNS  202  238 
   Rushing  111  87 
   Passing  72  127 
   Penalty  19  24 
RUSHING YARDAGE  2272  1548 
   Yards gained rushing  2577  1920 
   Yards lost rushing  305  372 
   Rushing Attempts  453  389 
   Average Per Rush  5.0  4.0 
   Average Per Game  206.5  140.7 
   TDs Rushing  25  18 
PASSING YARDAGE  1514  2619 
   Att-Comp-Int  248-139-12  374-236-6 
   Average Per Pass  6.1  7.0 
   Average Per Catch  10.9  11.1 
   Average Per Game  137.6  238.1 
   TDs Passing  10  15 
TOTAL OFFENSE  3786  4167 
   Total Plays  701  763 
   Average Per Play  5.4  5.5 
   Average Per Game  344.2  378.8 
KICK RETURNS: #-Yards  52-1172  57-1198 
PUNT RETURNS: #-Yards  21-222  13-71 
INT RETURNS: #-Yards  6-102  12-119 
KICK RETURN AVERAGE  22.5  21.0 
PUNT RETURN AVERAGE  10.6  5.5 
INT RETURN AVERAGE  17.0  9.9 
FUMBLES-LOST  23-9  29-14 
PENALTIES-Yards  76-689  80-684 
   Average Per Game  62.6  62.2 
PUNTS-Yards  49-1980  47-1789 
   Average Per Punt  40.4  38.1 
   Net punt average  38.1  31.6 
TIME OF POSSESSION/Game  29:35  30:25 
3RD-DOWN Conversions  53/137  65/149 
   3rd-Down Pct  39%  44% 
4TH-DOWN Conversions  7/12  6/10 
   4th-Down Pct  58%  60% 
SACKS BY-Yards  33-237  17-118 
MISC YARDS  -20 
TOUCHDOWNS SCORED  37  35 
FIELD GOALS-ATTEMPTS  13-15  15-19 
ON-SIDE KICKS  0-0  0-0 
RED-ZONE SCORES  37-39 95%  40-50 80% 
RED-ZONE TOUCHDOWNS  30-39 77%  25-50 50% 
PAT-ATTEMPTS  34-35 97%  33-33 100% 
ATTENDANCE  171292  350631 
   Games/Avg Per Game  5/34258  6/58438 
   Neutral Site Games    0/0

 

Ok, let's look at some general stats first.  We saw teams like OSU and USC just racking up the points and yards and first downs against their opponents.  Stanford has barely outscored their opponents.  They have fewer first downs.  Fewer yards.  The breakdown of offense is indicative of their style of offense.  Tons more rushing yards than passing yards.  700 more. Clearly a run first team, the very kind of team that Cal plays well.  They've actually even run fewer plays than their opponents.

Their 3rd down % is worse than their opponents.  I feel that, looking at these numbers, we can handle this team if we play to our ability.

 

RUSHING  GP  Att  Gain  Loss  Net  Avg   TD  Long  Avg/G 
Gerhart, Toby   11  191  1069  36  1033  5.4  14  46  93.9 
Kimble, Anthony  11  112  716  28  688  6.1  83  62.5 
Loukas, Alex   36  223  37  186  5.2  29  20.7 
Pritchard, Tavita  11  58  268  140  128  2.2  40  11.6 

 

Well, here it is.  The crux of Stanford.  The key to Stanford.  Toby Gerhart.  The Quizz of Stanford.  The Jeremiah Johnson of Stanford.  The every USC RB on that fucking team of Stanford.  He has almost 200 attempts on the year.  He's averaging 5.4 a carry, which I believe is more than Quizz.  Almost 100 yards a game.  He's the biggest part of their offense.  If we can shut him down, we will be able to control this game, I believe.  Said the same thing about Quizz, though, and we saw what happened there.

He's backed up by Anthony Kimble, who I know little about to be honest.  His numbers look better than Gerhart, but in a more limited role.  More yards per carry but about a hundred fewer carries.  The main focus is Gerhart.  If Kimble and Gerhart are both destroying us, then it could be a LOOONG day.

2211048_medium

Toby Gerhart via grfx.cstv.com

PASSING  GP  Effic  Cmp-Att-Int  Pct  Yards   TD  Long  Avg/G 
Pritchard, Tavita  11  113.4  125-217-10  57.6  1327  61  120.6 
Loukas, Alex   115.6  9-18-1  50.0  125  41  13.9 
Forcier, Jason   63.1  5-13-1  38.5  62  26  15.5 
Total..........  11  111.0  139-248-12  56.0  1514  10  61  137.6 
Opponents......  11  132.0  236-374-6  63.1  2619  15  55  238.1 

Tavita Pritchard.  Wasn't he the shmuckzoid that beat us last year?  The name angers me to this day!  Luckily, it appears he isn't very good.  120 yards a game.  57% completion rate.  113 QB efficiency.  The passing game clearly not the strength of the team.  That's why stopping Gerhart is so important.  It's like the Oregon game.  We were able to contain their run game and force them to pass.  They couldn't.  Masoli got 44 yards.  If we can do the same here, we can control the game. 

If we can force Pritchard to beat us, this game will most likely be ours.   Similar to Masoli, also, he can scramble.  He rushed for almost 50 yards against USC.  But passingwise, he was 9-21 for about 100 yards.

2157325_medium

Tavita Pritchard vtai grfx.cstv.com

 

RECEIVING  GP  No.  Yards  Avg   TD  Long  Avg/G 
Whalen, Ryan   11  36  438  12.2  30  39.8 
Baldwin, Doug   11  20  269  13.4  61  24.5 
Gunder, Austin   11  15  123  8.2  18  11.2 
Kimble, Anthony  11  12  88  7.3  15  8.0 
Gerhart, Toby   11  11  100  9.1  21  9.1 

 

As to be expected with the QB situation at Stanford, there are not great WR numbers.  The leader, Whalen, averages less than 40 yards a game.  Whalen leads the team with 36 receptions.  I think there are like 4 WRs on Arizona with more than that.  If these guys are beating us on Saturday, it means things have broken down.  And bad.

2211599_medium

Ryan Whalen via grfx.cstv.com

 

Ok, like GoDucks.com the Stanford website is freaking out.  I've written the bottom portion out two times and it deletes it twice.  Damn you, Stanford!  You've rejected me yet again.  So, I'll try to summarize my thoughts:

 

1.  Arizona ran all over us, because we had to respect the pass so much.  We were able to control Oregon, because we didn't need to respect their pass.  On that spectrum, Stanford is far closer to Oregon.  So, I think that this is the type of offense we can control.  Gerhart will probably get his yards, similar to how JJ got his in Oregon.  But hopefully, they will be empty yards.  If Pritchard and Co. are passing all over us, it will be a LONG day.  But I feel that given our defensive prowess, that will not happen.  Hopefully!

2.  On offense, I predict we see a LOT of running.  Stanford just gave 300 yards each to USC and Oregon in their last 2 games.  Now, of course, USC and Oregon are great running teams, no doubt about that.  But we aren't exactly slouches.  Apparently, Best is as healthy now as he has been in weeks.  Plus, if our offensive line can play more like they did against Oregon than OSU and USC, I think we can give Riley the time he needs to make throws. On the road, they were abysmal.  Hopefully, at home, it will be different.

Look, I get it.  It's been a long season.  An up and down season.  Big wins.  Crushing losses.  And with our 2 crushing losses in a row there, you feel uncomfortable about the game.  We all do.  Plus, its Big Game.  I was there in 2000 and 2001 when Stanford should have smacked us.  But we held strong, losing at the way end (in OT in 2000).  Throw the record books out in this one.  But looking at the stats, looking at all the games, I feel reasonably confident that Cal can take this one.  Our D is set up to stop a run-heavy offense as we face here.  Our O is set up to run the ball a lot against weak run Ds as we face here.  Let's get that axe back.  Let's do this thing.  Go Bears!

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