Cal Football Bowl Scenarios
Well, with the last implausible Rose Bowl scenario finally dead, a lot of Cal fans are turning to the rest of the bowl schedule, wondering where they might be making a holiday trip this winter. Bowl scenarios have always been a complicated mess fraught with complicated contingencies and arcane rules, so it should come as no surprise that there's a fair amount of misinformation and uninformed speculation out there. Heck, even after spending hours last year researching bowl selection rules, I still had to be corrected by Ken Crawford and Jason Snell, among others. Thus, to try and clear things up for everyone, I present this concise guide to Pac-10 bowl selection procedures.
First off, the Pac-10 bowl tie-ins for 2008-09 are thus:
#1 Rose Bowl (BCS)
#2 Holiday Bowl
#3 Sun Bowl
#4 Las Vegas Bowl
#5 Emerald Bowl
#6 Hawai'i Bowl
#7 Poinsettia Bowl
I've seen some listings switching the order of the Vegas and Emerald Bowls, or listing them both as "#4 or #5", but the actual arrangement is that the bowls have an alternating agreement with the conference wherein the Las Vegas gets to pick fourth in '06 and '08, followed by the Emerald, whereas the Emerald gets to pick fourth in '07 and '09.
Before we do any other speculating, we need to know if the Pac-10 will get 2 teams in the BCS, and the simple answer is that it all depends if Oregon State wins out. USC is the only team with any shot at earning one of the 4 at-large BCS spots, so if the Beavs falter, USC will be the conference's lone representative in the BCS for the 6th consecutive year.
However, if Oregon State does complete their improbable run to the Rose Bowl, USC is almost a lock for the BCS. Not only are they an extremely attractive candidate for any of the BCS bowls, but there really aren't too many other options out there. Utah will earn a BCS bid if they can beat BYU, and if they don't, Boise State will probably take an automatic bid. Only 1 non-BCS school may earn an automatic bid in a given year, however, so if Utah and Boise (and Ball State) all go undefeated, it's likely only Utah will get in. 2 other at-large spots will be handed to the runners-up of the SEC and the Big XII South, but each of those conferences can get at most 2 BCS bids. It's unlikely that any ACC or Big East team will even qualify for at-large status, so the final spot will come down to USC or the Big 10 runner-up, most likely an Ohio State team that got flattened in the past two BCS title games, as well as by USC earlier this year. Given the choice between USC, Ohio State, and Boise State, I'm pretty sure bowls like the Sugar and the Orange would go with USC.
With that out of the way, let's take a look at the rest of the Pac-10's bowl tie-ins.

It's important to note that, except for the Rose Bowl, the Pac-10 does not have tiebreakers for the various bowls. If 2 or more teams tie for second place (or third, if two go to the BCS), the Holiday Bowl gets their choice amongst those teams. Most likely, Cal will be tied with at least one other team no matter where or how they finish, so then Cal's attractiveness (in terms of both TV audiences and the number of fans willing to travel) becomes a factor. Finishing the season on a high note can be critical.
So let's look at some scenarios:
Pacific Life Holiday Bowl
There is still a way for Cal to get to the Holiday: first, Oregon State wins out and the Pac-10 grabs two BCS bowls. Second, Cal wins out and finishes in a tie for third with Oregon at 6-3. The Bears and the Ducks would have identical 8-4 records, and both would have been to San Diego recently (the Bears in '04 and '06, the Ducks in '05). For what it's worth, the Bears would also have the head-to-head win to go on, although I can't say if the Holiday would consider that at all. [EDIT: According to Jonathan Okanes, the Holiday would consider the head-to-head matchup the tiebreaker, and definitely select the Bears over the Ducks.] I think this is a very plausible scenario, and the best way for the Bears to get to SD this winter.
Brut Sun Bowl
via www.uconnhuskies.com
There are plenty of ways for the Bears to get to El Paso should they win out, so much so that they're not worth discussing. Should the Sun get a choice, I'm almost certain the Bears would be favored over the Ducks, who beat South Florida in the Sun Bowl last year, and pretty confident they would be picked over a tailspinning Oregon State as well, as OSU visited El Paso the year before that. Especially given that Cal has never been to the Sun Bowl, I would think the Sun would have a strong incentive to keep the Bears from falling to Vegas. However, should Cal end up tied with Arizona, I think Arizona's 10-year bowl drought, plus Tucson's proximity to El Paso (4 1/2 hours down I-10), might make the Wildcats an even more attractive candidate for the Sun Bowl.
Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl
via unlvtickets.com
If the Bears win out, they almost certainly don't fall further than Vegas. In fact, if Oregon State wins out and goes to the Rose Bowl, there's a distinct possibility that the Vegas Bowl gets last pick of the eligible Pac-10 teams, and the Emerald Bowl has to go free-agent shopping. This is also a possible destination should the Bears lose to either Stanford or Washington *shudder*.
[EDIT: Also according to Okanes, the Emerald would talk about working out a deal with the Vegas Bowl to let Cal fall to them, should it come to that. That sounds pretty plausable, and since the Las Vegas and Emerald Bowls are basically on the same tier in terms of payout, exposure and prestige, it wouldn't really be a fall for the Bears. The one snag in this plan is that if the Pac-10 only gets 5 teams bowl eligible but gets two teams in the BCS, the Las Vegas Bowl might be left with the last available Pac-10 team. In such a case, they might be unwilling or unable to let the Bears go to the Emerald, given that Las Vegas would then have to scramble to find some free-agent team to fill their bowl slot.]
Emerald Bowl
via images.buildingthedam.com
If Cal is still available, it's almost certain that the Nut Bowl will take the Bears. It's really not worth worrying too much about any bowls beyond this one -- if the Bears can win the Big Game, I think we can safely look at the Emerald as a worst-case scenario. However, what if the Bears lose the Big Game but beat Washington and finish the season tied with Stanford with identical 5-4 conference records? Couple this with a failure on OSU's part to win out, and it's a very real possibility that the Emerald would get to choose between Cal and Stanford, and I honestly don't know which way they'd lean: Cal has a bigger fanbase, but Stanford would be much more excited about a bowl game, any bowl game.
Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl
Fall past the Emerald, and the consolation prize ain't so bad: a December trip to Honolulu. If the Bears lose out like they did last year, this is quite possibly where they end up.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
via comment.colostate.edu
¡Que desastre! To even fall this far, the Bears would have to lose out AND 7 Pac-10 teams would have to get to 6 wins. Losing out would get Stanford there, but either Arizona State or UCLA would also have to win their last two games to become eligible. Note that Arizona State hosts UCLA Thanksgiving weekend in a bowl elimination game, so there is no chance of 8 teams somehow becoming eligible and leaving the Bears home for the holidays -- the Bears are guaranteed to be invited to a bowl game. Honestly, I don't see either the Bruins or the Sun Devils winning out, but Arizona State (last game @ Arizona) obviously has a better shot at it than UCLA (last game vs. USC).
Prediction?
Forced to guess, I would bet the Bears end up in the Sun Bowl, where they've never played (they're the only Pac-10 school never to have done so). Sure, El Paso isn't exactly the vacation destination many of us had hoped for, but the Sun is actually a pretty good bowl: it's the second-oldest bowl game, behind only the Rose, having been played 74 times, its payout is pretty decent (in the $2M range), it's played on New Year's Eve, and the game is nationally broadcast on CBS (the only bowl CBS shows).
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From JO:
But even though the Las Vegas Bowl has the [fourth] pick this year, Emerald Bowl executive director Gary Cavalli said it’s almost for certain the Bears would end up in the Emerald Bowl. He said if the Las Vegas Bowl ended up wanting Cal, the Emerald Bowl could negotiate a deal with the Las Vegas Bowl to keep the Bears in the Bay Area.
In other words, Emerald Bowl will pay lots of money to the Vegas Bowl so that the local fan base turns out for Cal.
by sec119 on
Nov 18, 2008 7:37 AM PST
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IF we win the Big Game...
…would that mean there will be no Vegas, baby? If we win the Big Game, we eliminate stanfurd from bowl contention, so the Emerald Bowl wouldn’t have to make the Cal-stanfurd choice. Thus, we become the Emerald Bowl’s clear 1st choice. So it looks like winning the Big Game trims our bowl possibilities to Holiday, Sun, and Emerald.
Go Bears!
by Ohio Bear on
Nov 18, 2008 7:44 AM PST
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Emerald means Maryland revenge.
I prefer the Sun Bowl because it’s double the money of the Vegas and Emerald, but it has it’s downsides…
1) Sun will get a Big12 team… so we’ll most likely be playing Okistate or Mizzou…. great if we can beat them, but we match up well on defense, but not on offense. Plus beating the 3rd or 4th best team in the Big12 doesn’t do much for us, but losing to them hurts us badly.
2) it’s hot as hell… and I do really like Texas too much.
I really like Emerald Bowl because it would be a home game for us… would be a huge turnout and we’d play an ACC team… most likely a rematch with Maryland!
Think about it.. we’d get to avenge our loss to Maryland… we force them to adjust to west coast time and we end the season with 9 wins and a satisfied feeling.
by danzig on
Nov 18, 2008 8:54 AM PST
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Hey, Maryland could still win the ACC
strange as that is to say. The Terps also played in the Emerald last year, so I don’t know if they’d want to set up this game again, especially because Maryland is coming to our house next season. I guess it’d be like UCLA and BYU playing twice last year, and then again this season.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
by ragnarok on
Nov 18, 2008 8:57 AM PST
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I’d say Miami wins the ACC… they have Georgia Tech and NC State left… while Maryland has Florida State then Boston College on the road… Maryland will drop at least one of those.
But anyway, good point about the repeat games… i didn’t think about our game next year. It would be strange for the Emerald Bowl committee to pick such a ‘diluted’ matchup.
In that case, I prefer the Sun Bowl for the extra money.
by danzig on
Nov 18, 2008 9:11 AM PST
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Holiday Bowl
Obviously this is the only precious stone left for Cal. Out of all the bowl, only this one has any credibility and comes with a bona fide opponent. However, assuming the choice is between Cal and Oregon (the likely scenario) I think the Holiday Bowl would prefer Oregon because they’d assume a more entertaining match-up (given Cal’s offensive woes).
Sun Bowl, here we come!
Go Bears!
by SoCal Oski on
Nov 18, 2008 8:48 AM PST
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Actually, according to JO, it looks like the Holiday would pick us over Oregon
I talked on the phone today with Bruce Binkowski, the executive director of the Holiday Bowl. He clarified that if there is a two-way tie in the spot his bowl picks, the berth would go to the team that won the head-to-head matchup.
That could be good news for the Bears if everything shakes down in their favor. If Oregon State wins out and goes to the Rose Bowl and USC doesn’t hiccup against Notre Dame and UCLA, both teams should be in BCS games. The Trojans surely will be selected for another BCS game if they win out.
If that happens and Cal wins out, the Bears would finish in a tie with Oregon for the Holiday Bowl slot. That means the Bears would get the berth by virtue of their regular season win over the Ducks.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
by ragnarok on
Nov 18, 2008 8:55 AM PST
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That would be the best possible finish to a season filled with flirtation with success.
Go Bears!
by SoCal Oski on
Nov 18, 2008 1:26 PM PST
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purely for ease of viewing
I like the emerald or vegas. I’d certainly go to the emerald (and bring the whole fam). and would likely talk the mrs. into the vegas bowl/vegas debauchery.
programatically, holdiay and sun are the best.
Go Bears Go
by Rocksanddirt on
Nov 18, 2008 9:16 AM PST
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I find all of the bowl-scenario predictors
that pop up around most of the major media outlets to be kind of annoying. It changes so much, so fast!
That being said, I suppose the Holiday Bowl is the best bowl out of the bunch…plus we’ll get more SoCal exposure and that can’t hurt.
The Maharg makes me look like an idiot.
by carp on
Nov 18, 2008 9:36 AM PST
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Predictions are fun to think about, but they're pretty meaningless.
I debated whether to even bother adding a prediction to this post. At this point, I think the Holiday, Sun, and Emerald are all strong possibilities, with the other bowls being pretty remote.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
by ragnarok on
Nov 18, 2008 9:41 AM PST
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I love all the optimism, but somehow I see us landing with a thud in the Emerald Bowl via Vegas shenanigans.
by zoonews on
Nov 18, 2008 10:54 AM PST
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Ah, Cal fans
You gotta love the pervasive pessimism.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
by ragnarok on
Nov 18, 2008 10:55 AM PST
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Love it!
Rec’d!
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
by ragnarok on
Nov 18, 2008 12:29 PM PST
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*has seizure*
Sheriff of the Welcome Team.
Welcome.
But Stop Arguing Nate vs. Kevin.
by Spazzy Mcgee on
Nov 18, 2008 12:51 PM PST
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Where is that?
I’m try to figure out what stadium that is and it is giving me fits.
Also, epilepsy.
by slims on
Nov 18, 2008 6:10 PM PST
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What about the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl game?
Is the Pac-10 out of that game now? Is that the one with the weird Notre Dame/service academy tie-ins?
The Maharg makes me look like an idiot.
by carp on
Nov 18, 2008 9:37 AM PST
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It's actually another alternating agreement
Pac-10 is in the Armed Forces Bowl in ‘07 and ’09, and in the Hawai’i Bowl in ’08 and ’10.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
by ragnarok on
Nov 18, 2008 9:39 AM PST
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pretty impressive
how the Emerald Bowl managed to squeeze such a large football on the GG bridge and thereby causing the towers to bend. They must be really strong!
The Maharg makes me look like an idiot.
by carp on
Nov 18, 2008 9:38 AM PST
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I don’t think we’re going to get the Holiday Bowl, because I don’t think OSU will win out. As my friend said on Saturday, Arizona is “The team that destroys hopes and dreams. It’s what they do.”
Sheriff of the Welcome Team.
Welcome.
But Stop Arguing Nate vs. Kevin.
by Spazzy Mcgee on
Nov 18, 2008 10:29 AM PST
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good point...I think it's at UofA, too...
I think OSU fans are so high right now they are destined for a gut punch. Oregon will play them tough, too.
The Maharg makes me look like an idiot.
by carp on
Nov 18, 2008 10:32 AM PST
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It is at Arizona
And they’ve been good at home, winning all except a tight USC game (17-10)
by tmoran3020 on
Nov 18, 2008 11:04 AM PST
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This will be, what, the 3rd time they’ve prevented the Pac 10 from landing 2 BCS bowls?
Sheriff of the Welcome Team.
Welcome.
But Stop Arguing Nate vs. Kevin.
by Spazzy Mcgee on
Nov 18, 2008 11:09 AM PST
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We're looking at the bowl situation all wrong...
It’s great that we’re guaranteed a bowl berth. But really, what’s a bowl berth other than the Rose Bowl? It’s a televised consolation prize. Once you get to a bowl, the difference in prestige for the available bowls is marginal – especially in the Pac-10, where even in the Vegas Bowl you’re playing the best of the MWC.
The most important part about bowls is the celebration factor. Non-BCS bowls celebrate the success of the program. And, the key to this celebration… the fans that bring in the ticket and advertising revenue that make these games possible.
So, in a fan-centric rubric, how should we be ranking these games?
1) VEGAS – By far the most enjoyable experience for a majority of students and alums. Car accessible from SoCal and NorCal (only 8.5 hours from Berkeley, I’ve done it several times). On top of that, we haven’t been to the Vegas Bowl in four years, the stadium isn’t that bad (although it is out of the way a bit), and the entertainment factor cannot be understated.
2) HOLIDAY – San Diego is kind of boring, folks, but it has its perks – fine weather, decent bar scene, good location. Qualcomm sucks, but the parking lot is tailgate conducive, which is always a good sign. Public transportation to the stadium isn’t horrible either.
3) EMERALD – San Francisco would be great – good bars, entertainment, restaurants – but it’s too close to home for most alums and students. It’s not exotic enough (not like I would describe San Diego as exotic either, but, hey, it’s all relative)
4) HAWAII – Oh, pipe dreams. No one is paying to go out to Hawaii for this game. I think East Carolina turned out 700 people for this game last year. We might be able to triple that.
5) SUN – Serious? El Paso? On New Year’s Eve? When I think “fun times”, freezing my ass off in the Texas desert is not near the top of my list. Plus, it is surprisingly expensive to get to Texas from CA during the holiday season. Anyone who tried to get out to the Armed Forces Bowl last year will back me up on this one.
Honestly, this is how we should be looking at these games. That, and the teams that get the best records should be able to choose their bowl game to reward their fan base, instead of having the bowls lock in irrational match-ups for the sake of differentiating two teams of slightly varying merit.
by slims on
Nov 18, 2008 10:35 AM PST
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with the strength of the Big 12 season
the holiday bowl is not as bad as years past. I think it would help recruiting in the SoCal reason, too.
WTF…8.5 h to Vegas? How fast do you drive? I think I did it in 10-11 h before and that was with me speeding on I-5 and I-15 (which, by the way, has to be the fastest freeway in the USA).
The Maharg makes me look like an idiot.
by carp on
Nov 18, 2008 10:45 AM PST
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You've got to cut through the Central Valley...
I assume you’re not going all the way down to LA right?
I-5 South to CA-46 East
CA-46 East to CA-99 South
CA-99 South to CA-58 East
58 puts you on I-15 around Barstow
Most of these highways are empty and outside major areas, so yes, I drove pretty fast.
by slims on
Nov 18, 2008 10:52 AM PST
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Last time I went to the Vegas Bowl
The guy I drove down with got a speeding ticket doing about 80 on CA-58.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
by ragnarok on
Nov 18, 2008 11:01 AM PST
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hmmm...never did the Hwy 46 I don't think
maybe that’s the secret.
The Maharg makes me look like an idiot.
by carp on
Nov 18, 2008 11:11 AM PST
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46 saves you the traffic stops 58 has through Bakersfield
by turkey on
Nov 18, 2008 4:05 PM PST
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Driving to Vegas sucks.
The roads are 65mph for a lot of the way through the central valley, and the local CHP love to ticket out-of-towners.
cough driving ragnarok’s car cough
It's seriously too bad that there's no building or complex around that might have a large supply of sports drinks.
by thenick on
Nov 19, 2008 3:02 AM PST
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google estimates 9 hrs....
I-5 to CA46 to CA99 to CA58 to I15
Go Bears Go
by Rocksanddirt on
Nov 18, 2008 10:53 AM PST
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I'm not a Vegas kinda guy, really
and the reason the Vegas Bowl is before Christmas is because the town is pretty much dead at that time, or as dead as Las Vegas gets.
Personally, I’d be much more excited about going to San Diego, as my wife is from there.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
by ragnarok on
Nov 18, 2008 10:54 AM PST
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What about...
watching all the BYU Mormons wandering around Vegas like they’ve come to some sort of crazy half-hell dream world?
There are few more exciting activities.
by slims on
Nov 18, 2008 10:56 AM PST
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True, true
Although I think Vegas will get TCU this year. If BYU does manage to beat Utah, I have no idea who wins the 3-way tie atop the Mountain West.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
by ragnarok on
Nov 18, 2008 10:59 AM PST
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wow...TCU had a very nice season for the Vegas Bowl...
as soon as I think the Pac-10 bowls suck…I’m glad we’re not the Mountain West
The Maharg makes me look like an idiot.
by carp on
Nov 18, 2008 11:13 AM PST
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That's not actually how it works
I was the in 2005, and it was hilarious. ZERO byu fans out at night, we Cal fans had the strip all to ourselves. It was great!
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
by CBKWit on
Nov 18, 2008 12:29 PM PST
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Isn’t the Las Vegas bowl played in a glorified high school stadium?
by Rishi on
Nov 18, 2008 12:53 PM PST
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it's UNLV's home stadium
but yes, more or less. And it’s pretty far out of the way.
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
by CBKWit on
Nov 18, 2008 1:00 PM PST
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Still better than Smell Paso
Sheriff of the Welcome Team.
Welcome.
But Stop Arguing Nate vs. Kevin.
by Spazzy Mcgee on
Nov 18, 2008 1:02 PM PST
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hey, beating BYU in Vegas
tough to top that…although winning 180 bucks at holdem helps.
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
by CBKWit on
Nov 18, 2008 1:09 PM PST
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Our halftime show should be select hits from George Michael, Elton John, and Freddie Mercury.
Sheriff of the Welcome Team.
Welcome.
But Stop Arguing Nate vs. Kevin.
by Spazzy Mcgee on
Nov 18, 2008 1:47 PM PST
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(I guess no one got this one)
Sheriff of the Welcome Team.
Welcome.
But Stop Arguing Nate vs. Kevin.
by Spazzy Mcgee on
Nov 18, 2008 3:08 PM PST
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It was a little oblique, but I’m with you now. You could really pander to the crowd and crack out a Judy Garland number or two.
by DC Trojan on
Nov 18, 2008 3:27 PM PST
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mormons hate men?
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
by CBKWit on
Nov 18, 2008 10:44 PM PST
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http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/27/BAP113OIRD.DTL
The Yes on 8 campaign estimates that up to 40 percent of its donations come from Mormons. Some others estimate that Mormons account for over 70 percent of donations from individuals.
Sheriff of the Welcome Team.
Welcome.
But Stop Arguing Nate vs. Kevin.
by Spazzy Mcgee on
Nov 18, 2008 11:18 PM PST
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You were missing a Bette Midler reference. Otherwise, you nailed it.
Go Bears!
by California Pete on
Nov 19, 2008 12:16 PM PST
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Emerald Bowl has to be #1 – close proximity to us. Hell, I’ll walk to the bowl game.
Plus, it’ll have the best Cal turnout of any bowl game so far.
by Rishi on
Nov 18, 2008 11:44 AM PST
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Don’t forget, the Sun Bowl has a repeat clause that they can use if they want. This is what essentially prevented OSU from there last year, as Oregon waltzed in to El Paso over the Emerald Bowl. I don’t think Oregon has a chance at the Sun Bowl – it will probably be either the Holiday Bowl (unlikely) or the Emerald Bowl.
It's spelled "S-h-u-t-a-b-r-i-c-k".
by JShufelt on
Nov 18, 2008 10:51 AM PST
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Don't we have to win the rest of our games first?
Before we get carried into a fantasy land of speculation about this bowl or that bowl, we actually have to win the last two games of the season.
I left my heart at the Durant Food Court
by dballisloose on
Nov 18, 2008 11:16 AM PST
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I think Ragnarok was just looking at our options. Not assuming anything.
Please disregard the above ramblings as those of a clearly delusional fan.
www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com
by TwistNHook on
Nov 18, 2008 11:26 AM PST
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We're a Bowl Lock already
We could lose out (g-d forbid), go 6-6, and still be drafted for a bowl due to the dearth of eligible Pac-10 teams…
by slims on
Nov 18, 2008 11:33 AM PST
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