'Furd +10.5 At California

by BearsNecessity on Nov 16, 2008 2:54 PM PST

Line seems about right considering both teams are on two game skids going into this game. It's just a matter of whether you guys think strategically about both teams. Hell, there isn't much different if you look at both teams closely.

The 'Furd has two quality wins over 'Zona and Oregon State, but both of those games were at home. Cal has two quality wins over Michigan State and Oregon, but both of those games were at home.
The 'Furd is 1-5 on the road, with that one win coming against a terrible Washington team. The Bears are 1-4 on the road, with that one win coming against a terrible Washington State team. Luckily, the Big Game is at home this year.
Both feature quarterbacks who love to airmail the ball like Pritchard and Riley. Both get sacked a lot too.
The 'Furd defense isn't great, but they are decent enough at stopping the run that Riley will need to have some big throws to beat them.
Cal's defense is good at stopping the run, and thankfully the Trees power run game will be easier for a physical D like the Bears to deal with than that crazy midget and the USC/Oregon mad brigade.
Of course, the 'Furd are playing for something extra: their first bowl berth in forever. The Bears are jockeying for Emerald Nuts or El Paso. You take a gander as to who will be more motivated coming in.

So which stand are you taking? Rolling with the Bears in a blowout or laying the points?

EDIT: The line has dropped to 9 (about where I expected it to be before the game), but let's argue based on the original line.

Poll

Cal -10.5 vs. 'Furd. WHO YA GOT.

Like the Bears to blowout: Cal -10.5

39 votes

Like the Card to keep it close: 'Furd +10.5

14 votes

53 votes | Poll has closed

The opinions expressed in a FanPost are, in every way, reflective of the opinions of every California Golden Blogs Marshawnthusiast. Moreover, they are reflective of every employee of SBNation, including Tyler "Blez" Bleszinski.

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Comments

Sagarin would have the Bears favored by 11

Bears by a touchdown and a field goal sounds about right.

So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!

by ragnarok on Nov 16, 2008 3:23 PM PST reply actions

I dunno… I don’t feel like that sounds about right considering how bad the offense has been lately.

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by HydroTech on Nov 16, 2008 3:47 PM PST up reply actions

Honestly, I agree that Stanford will be hyped to get a bowl game. However, I think there is a lot of pride on this Cal team. They remember last year. I don’t think there will be any problem with motivation.

Please disregard the above ramblings as those of a clearly delusional fan.

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Nov 16, 2008 5:12 PM PST reply actions

another home game, another win. cal by 14

by MCM711 on Nov 16, 2008 6:08 PM PST reply actions

After some freaking out on Saturday, particularly during the first half of SC-Furd, I’ve settled down. MCM, I think you’re right. Cal is just a totally different team at home under Tedford, especially this year. Though, if we do lose to either of these final two teams, we will know the proverbial wheels have actually fallen off.

by BeastMode on Nov 17, 2008 5:28 AM PST up reply actions

Home = good

I don’t think this game will be close. The defense has been so dominate at home, I think they have another monster game. I think the LBs are salivating at getting to hit Gerhart over and over. I think that the receivers will gain some confidence on furd’s secondary.

If we lose the next two we are in deep trouble, just call us Clemson west.

by CountDuku on Nov 17, 2008 12:40 PM PST up reply actions

Avi, I still don’t understand gambling and lines. Does this mean Cal is the underdog? I assume it does…

"I look forward to a future in which our country will match its military strength with our moral restraint, its wealth with our wisdom, its power with our purpose."

John F. Kennedy

by CaliSeth on Nov 16, 2008 9:49 PM PST reply actions

Just the opposite

It means that Stanford is predicted to lose by 10.5 points. Or, if Stanford started the game 10.5 points ahead, they’d tie.

by Nashville on Nov 16, 2008 9:51 PM PST up reply actions

No, if the ‘Furd were ten point favorites, I’d be 100 percent panicking.

by BearsNecessity on Nov 16, 2008 9:56 PM PST up reply actions

Not me

I’d be calling everyone I know for money because Daddy would be betting the house against them covering.

by Nashville on Nov 16, 2008 10:19 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

I'm envision a close game

Here’s the thing. You take Cal’s sputtering and inconsistent offense, and add a motivated Furd team in the Big Game, and you have a recipe for disaster.

From what I can see, Furd is the kind of team for which emotions tend to bring out better play. While for Cal it seems that emotions kind of work against us by having the players a bit too hyped up and prone to some mistakes of energy.

However, with all that, I can’t see Cal losing at home. There is still a good chance that Cal goes to the Holiday Bowl if OSU wins out., and that will be incentive.

In the end I see Cal winning 31 – 24.

Go Bears!

by SoCal Oski on Nov 17, 2008 3:49 PM PST reply actions

I mostly agree.

I’d be surprized if we covered a 10 pt spread.

unless, some miracle happens and we stop having stupid offensive penalties.

Go Bears Go

by Rocksanddirt on Nov 18, 2008 4:36 PM PST up reply actions

I see the Bears winning something like 35-27 with a Stanford touchdown coming late in the game to drive everyone who took the Bears at -10.5 crazy.

by The Hombre on Nov 19, 2008 9:35 AM PST up reply actions

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