Can Cal beat the Beavs?
Ahem.
Getting away from the more onanistic implications, the question really is about whether Cal has a realistic shot at beating OSU on Sat. The short answer is yes. The long answer follows.
What will it take for Cal to win? Pretty simple. We need to play better than them. Oh, you want specifics? Sure. with all apologies to Hiro Nakamura, in order for Cal to win on Sat the trick is "Stop the Quizz, save the game."
Here's what I think it comes down to.
1. OSU Running game. Cal's D has to make the effort to stop the run, and I think they can do it. They completely shut down the rushing attacks of MSU, Oregon, Fucla, Wazzu, and ASU. In each case, Cal forced those teams to try and beat them with the pass, and they simply couldn't. The one game which really stands out by it's absence is Zona. Particularly if you make the argument that Quizz and Antolin are similar runners. Accepting that as truth, the difference is that Cal's D was forced to pay far more respect to the Zona passing game, taking away the focus on the run. Which leads to the next point ...
2. The OSU Passing game. The Beavs are not even close to being as horrible as either Oregon or Fucla in the passing game, but they also aren't as proficient as either $C or Zona. Regardless of which QB plays for OSU, they'll be competent, won't take risks, and will avoid silly mistakes. But they also are not likely to make the huge play. Moevao gives the Beavs a stronger threat to run, but then Cal did pretty good against another running QB from the state to our immediate north. And Moevao, while being a good QB, has been prone to forced throws. In fact, pure luck bailed them out a number of times against $C.
3. Cal's O-Line. OSU has a good defense, but not an exceptional one. Teams have put points up on them, especially teams with a balanced offense. Here is where Cal's O-Line needs to be strong. If Cal can give Best & Vereen holes, and provide some protection, Cal can score - regardless of who is playing QB for us.
4. Corvalis. Reser Stadium has been very kind to us Bears for some reason. The real key will be whether the Beaver fans will be as hyped up for this game as they are for either $C or Oregon.
Now, all of these are way easier said than done. Especially points 1 and 3. Stopping the OSU running game will be tough, and establishing the Cal OL dominance even tougher. A few big plays by special teams wouldn't hurt, and a TD from either them or the defense would really help. Overall, this is a winnable game, but only if Cal plays like they did against ASU or MSU.
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32 comments
Comments
I'm going to go on a limb...
40% chance Cal blows ‘em out…passing game puts it together…running backs run like they’ve got TiVo’s…D plays D the entire game.
60% chance…Cal wins in a nail biter.
Maybe 40-60 is too high…maybe 25-75 is better. Nonetheless…I’m thinking a PO’d Bears team shows up…and if they don’t…then I might be more disappointed then the Maryland or UofA losses. “Character” and “leadership” would have to be questioned.
Two-thirds of the earth is covered by water, the other third is covered by Kotsay...in his prime...like 3 years ago.
by carp on Nov 12, 2008 2:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
running backs run like they’ve got TiVo’s
I don’t get this….
It's seriously too bad that there's no building or complex around that might have a large supply of sports drinks.
by thenick on Nov 12, 2008 2:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
how about
running backs run like they’ve got stolen TiVo’s
Two-thirds of the earth is covered by water, the other third is covered by Kotsay...in his prime...like 3 years ago.
by carp on Nov 12, 2008 2:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
WTH MAN!
It's seriously too bad that there's no building or complex around that might have a large supply of sports drinks.
by thenick on Nov 12, 2008 6:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I love the optimism
And I also think Cal will play well. But Oregon State, right now, is a well-deserving first place team. Cal’s a 3-point underdog, and I frankly think Vegas is being a bit generous toward the Bears. I figure this game is 50-50 at best, and I’ll be very happy—not just relieved—if Cal wins.
One of the key matchups will be Stroughter vs. the Cal secondary. Can either Syd or Darian take care of him single-handedly? If they can, then that makes slowing down Rodgers a lot easier. Of course, a good pass rush wouldn’t hurt, either.
As always, win the turnover battle, and the Bears (probably) win the game.
Go Bears!
by California Pete on Nov 12, 2008 2:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I think more key is going to be our Dline vs. their Oline… USC’s DL was manhandled by their Oline and opened up hole after hole for Jacquizz to run through. You might be thinking “well we have a great 3-4 with 3 senior LBs waiting to destroy him…” but then again USC has even more LB talent.
This game will be won or lost at the lines…
Sheriff of the Welcome Team.
Welcome.
But Stop Arguing Nate vs. Kevin.
by Spazzy Mcgee on Nov 12, 2008 2:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t remember huge holes opening up… I just remember Quizz never going down on contact in the backfield in the first half.
...nuh nuh nuh gone
by Thoroughbred on Nov 12, 2008 4:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Tons of huge holes...
…plus, the Beavs ran a new play where the slot back goes into motion, fakes receiving a handoff for a sweep, and then trap blocks the defensive end with the outside contain assignment while Quizz runs an inside zone play. Beavers probably ran that play 30 times in the USC game and the Trojans couldn’t do anything about it.
Roses are Orange.
by CV3000 on Nov 12, 2008 4:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
the inside zone play is more difficult
against the 3-4’s differing alignments of ends and olb’s. basically you have an extra guy stringing the gaps out. Doesn’t always work, but if the DE’s/tackle gets penetration, the zone plays blow up.
still, of course, comes down to blocking and tackling at the point of attack.
Go Bears Go
by Rocksanddirt on Nov 12, 2008 4:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, the 3-4 will be an interesting challenge.
It will be harder to run outside, for sure. Quizz does almost all his damage between the tackles though. He’s a slippery dude back there.
It’s going to be an exciting game.
Roses are Orange.
by CV3000 on Nov 12, 2008 5:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
cal
Two-thirds of the earth is covered by water, the other third is covered by Kotsay...in his prime...like 3 years ago.
by carp on Nov 12, 2008 5:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
's 'backers are fast, too
and they hit hard. Our DE’s are solid as well.
If Quizz does well…I think he’ll be Officially Legit.
Two-thirds of the earth is covered by water, the other third is covered by Kotsay...in his prime...like 3 years ago.
by carp on Nov 12, 2008 5:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, and it will happen.
Bryan Anger will win this game for us.
by Rishi on Nov 12, 2008 2:49 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Any logic behind that?
It's seriously too bad that there's no building or complex around that might have a large supply of sports drinks.
by thenick on Nov 12, 2008 6:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bryan Anger’s punts will knock Sammie Stroughter over.
by Rishi on Nov 13, 2008 8:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
OSU has the Number 1 passing offense in the conference, actually...with 3 top 10 in the conference receivers.
But neither QB is any threat to run. Moevao is probably more mobile inside the pocket, however they’re both strictly pocket passers. And the O-line gives up just 1 sack per game.
http://cfbstats.com/2008/leader/905/team/offense/split01/category02/sort01.html
Also, the Beavers have 4 players in the conference’s Top 15 in yards from scrimmage per game.
It will be different with Canfield playing against a good defense, but he did pretty well against the Bears last year.
Roses are Orange.
by CV3000 on Nov 12, 2008 4:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
It feels like everything about the Beavs is a little inflated given that the last 4 opponents were the bottom 4 Pac-10 teams… I don’t know if it’s better to split up good and bad teams on the schedule or have these streaks (WSU, UW, ASU, UCLA, then Cal, Zona, UO)
...nuh nuh nuh gone
by Thoroughbred on Nov 12, 2008 5:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Cal can win...
… but I expect it to be a hard fought battle.
by Mister Pie on Nov 12, 2008 5:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
“The real key will be whether the Beaver fans will be as hyped up for this game as they are for either $C or Oregon.”
From what I can see (trying to get tix, boards, etc.) – YES. They are three games away from the Rose Bowl, and this is their last home game outside of the Civil War.
by tmoran3020 on Nov 12, 2008 6:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Reser Stadium still sucks.
I support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by Takimoto on Nov 12, 2008 8:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Why? 'Cause the ducks can't win in it?
Love the House of Loud, btw.
by ArbyOSU on Nov 13, 2008 11:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We don't pump crowd noise into our speakers, I think that's what he means
Oregon State: where play action defense and healthy QBs thrive
by The VD Special on Nov 13, 2008 1:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmmm......
Your question is rather ambiguous in that you ask, “Can Cal beat the Beavers?” The simple answer is yes, surely they can. However, the more exact question might be, “Will Cal beat the Beavers?” As far as I am concerned we could have beaten everyone on this years schedule with perhaps the exception being USC. However, we did not. Having said that, who really knows at this point? I am not religious by any means, but I have taken up praying in recent days….
"I look forward to a future in which our country will match its military strength with our moral restraint, its wealth with our wisdom, its power with our purpose."
John F. Kennedy
by CaliSeth on Nov 12, 2008 11:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
That shot does make me smile. It really does. Conversely, it also makes me dejected and angry, in the sense that no matter how hard Favre gets hit, the bastard keeps going. As much as I dislike and despise him as a human being, he is a prime physical specimen for medical schools. Is that an oxymoron?
"I look forward to a future in which our country will match its military strength with our moral restraint, its wealth with our wisdom, its power with our purpose."
John F. Kennedy
by CaliSeth on Nov 13, 2008 1:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Will Cal beat the Beavs?
Does a Bear shit in the woods?
Two-thirds of the earth is covered by water, the other third is covered by Kotsay...in his prime...like 3 years ago.
by carp on Nov 13, 2008 5:42 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Is a bear catholic?
Sheriff of the Welcome Team.
Welcome.
But Stop Arguing Nate vs. Kevin.
by Spazzy Mcgee on Nov 13, 2008 12:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
With the USC loss over with...
I am now in true state of equanimity during the week….only to be replaced, upon watching the kick off with the usual rabidity of long time bear fandom….then replaced with shrug resignation.
alaska A residing in colorado.
by ak_A on Nov 13, 2008 4:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

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