USC Overrated? SEC Overrated? We actually don't know.
Just a thought on USC, which I might have brought up in the open game thread on Saturday. The conventional wisdom is that USC has consistently been one of the best teams in the country over the past 5 years. I heard on TV last week (I think on the ABC half time show from Flutie) that USC would probably have won several more national titles during the Carroll era had a playoff system been in place. Let's look at USC's bowl wins:
2007 49-17 over a mediocre Illinois team. (Big 10)
2006 32-18 over a declining Michigan program. (Big 10)
2005 38-41 loss to Vince Young. (He just wins football games . . . except not anymore?) (Big 12)
2004 55-19 over an Oklahoma team (Big 12) that would go on to barely scrape by Oregon in its bowl game the following year, and then lose to Boise St. in 2006 and a West Virginia team last year that is also in decline.
2003 28-14 over a Michigan program that was beginning its decline. (Big 10)
2002 38-17 over an Iowa program at its peak. (Big 10)
You can't blame USC because of the way the bowl system is set up, but notice how SC has never had to take on a top SEC opponent. USC has clearly been the best team in the Pac-10, they own the Big 10, and have split against the Big 12. And really, sans Vince Young, Texas loses that game by 20. It was the greatest individual performance by a college football player that I've ever seen.
Meanwhile, the SEC champ has destroyed the Big 10 for a couple of years and beat the Big 12 champ, LSU over Oklahoma, by a touchdown in 2003.
I know it sounds crazy, but I'm actually rooting for USC to make the title game against Florida or Alabama to see how the elites from the two conferences actually matchup.
I'd love to hear what others think about this and I'm sure that I've overlooked some key non-conferences games that might further illuminate things in this brief analysis.
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Check out USC's OOC games
First of all, that discussion about Oklahoma is a little bit of a stretch. You’re trying to compare what happened in 04 to the same team in 06 and 07
Try a blowout at Arkansas, the year they won the SEC West.
Or the year they won @Auburn when Auburn was ranked in the top 10 I believe
Then a couple years ago they won big at Nebraska. NU went on to the Big 12 Championship
Now, that’s not to say that the media COUGHtedmillerCOUGH has an unrealistic hard on for USC, but they truly are one of the elite teams in the country. The fact that they lose to one or two conference teams a year is more a testament to the actual quality of the Pac 10 (minus this year) then it is the over-rated of USC. And Ted Miller constantly brings up a good point. If you choose to play the national championship against Alabama, Florida, Texas Tech, or USC, most people would generally choose USC last.
Oregon State: where play action defense and healthy QBs thrive
I appreciate the feedback. My response:
That Oklahoma team was on the decline in 04. You didn’t refute that.
Arkansas ’06 lost to the two best teams in the SEC that year, Florida and LSU. The best team they beat was Auburn, who only beat Nebraska by 3 in the Cotton Bowl.
The Auburn team that USC beat finished 8-5 and 5-3 in SEC play.
Teams fear USC, or so the pundits tell us. I just don’t think the achievements of the program warrant that fear. The Big 12 and the Big 10 are weak. I want to know if USC is superior the SEC, and I’ve seen no evidence to suggest that they are.
Touche
I didn’t research it too hardly. Just from basic memory.
And you’re right, Oklahoma should have never been in the Nat’l Championship that year either, if my memory serves me right.
Oregon State: where play action defense and healthy QBs thrive
by The VD Special on Nov 11, 2008 6:35 PM PST up reply actions
Oh and one other thing
I don’t know if there’s any evidence to suggest that they are superior to the SEC, but they are definitely not behind the SEC. I think they would compete for SEC championships every year. Also, remember USC suffers from failing to get up for big games. A lot of elite teams have that problem (see: Florida v Ole Miss)
Oregon State: where play action defense and healthy QBs thrive
by The VD Special on Nov 11, 2008 6:38 PM PST up reply actions
Actually, I think USC suffers from overlooking teams they should beat. Cal ’03, OSU ’06, UCLA ’06, Stanford ’07, OSU ’08, all of those are games USC should have won. Texas ’06 and Oregon ’07 were the only times since 2002 where I can remember USC facing a tough, nearly equal opponent and failing to win.
So, basically, you gotta Go Bears!
The same Auburn team that would go 13-0 the next season? You can’t say there was much of a difference between them.
by BearsNecessity on Nov 11, 2008 8:33 PM PST up reply actions
huge difference
the year auburn went 13-0 was the first year Al Borges became their new OC. auburn was loaded with senior talent that year: carnell williams, ronnie brown, and jason campbell. it was a team to be feared… Borges basically build an offense to fit the talent he had and they thrived.
Exactly, the 2004 USC Trojans and the 2004 Auburn Tigers were pretty much replicates of their 2003 counterparts. And USC defeated them decisively in Jordan-Hare. I can’t believe that the OC would’ve made a HUGE difference in terms of comparative talent.
by BearsNecessity on Nov 12, 2008 10:05 PM PST up reply actions
Though I’m not attempting to be a USC apologist, their achievements do warrant a healthy fear.
The principal achievement is winning 11 games over six (this year would be seven) consecutive years with the amount of player turnover they sustain in an increasingly competitive Pac-10. Looked at differently, pretty much everyone would regard a USC team with 3 losses as having had a disappointing year. Not to mention the fact that they won 34 straight games over 3 seasons. Or six shared or outright consecutive Pac-10 titles. Or not lost a non-conference regular season game since 2002. Or not lost a game by more than 7 points in the last six years.
Finally, I’ve had the chance to watch a lot of SEC football while I was in undergrad at Vandy. There were some very good teams, but, none that would’ve been favored by more than a touchdown against USC. In fact, in the last 10 years, only 6 SEC teams have ever finished the season in the BCS Top 10. And that was reflected on the field. South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Mississippi St., and Arkansas consider bowl eligibility the achievement, let alone the BCS. The division structure guarantees a top SEC team is really only guaranteed to play its two other strong rivals in division plus whatever permanent cross-division rival it has. Now, it just so happens that Auburn-UGA, Alabama-UT, LSU-UF is top teams play top teams, but it’s still not that much. LSU, Alabama and Auburn have literally no strong traditional OOC rivals, so they sometimes play only 3 tough teams a year. UGA and Florida are one better having Georgia Tech and FSU respectively. The point of all this is not to discount the very strong teams that UGA, UF, LSU, and Auburn have fielded over the years, but to point out that the need to bring your ‘A’ game every week is pure myth, yet that is the very foundation that SEC ‘superiority’ is based on.
Don’t believe the hype. If I’m putting my money where my mouth is, I’m betting USC against anyone in the country except Texas Tech.
First of all the bowl season is a glorified exhibition. Nothing more nothing less. SEC and USC homers can argue ad infinitum who’s overrated or what not, but all the bowl season tells us is how big the talent gap is between various schools competing against each other and how good the coaches are. Every team usually plays at opening day strength (four weeks allows plenty of time for injuries to heal) and it becomes painfully evident who the smarter and talented teams are in their matchups.
There’s a reason Bob Stoops and Jim Tressel coached teams underperform in every BCS bowl they’ve played in while Urban Meyer and Pete Carroll continue to turn out quality victories. The gameplans are smarter and fresher and the talent is on the field to back it up.
Of course I’d love to see USC and the SEC matchup, but everyone in the Big 12 South is going to have to lose one more time for that to happen.
well...a Big 12 N team (Mizzou) would have to win the Big 12 for SC to get there...
Two-thirds of the earth is covered by water, the other third is covered by Kotsay...in his prime...like 3 years ago.
Even in that case, a one loss Big 12 South team left out of the Big 12 Championship could get in over USC. The computers HATE SC this year.
by BearsNecessity on Nov 11, 2008 10:17 PM PST up reply actions
that's because I run the computers
Muahahaha
Two-thirds of the earth is covered by water, the other third is covered by Kotsay...in his prime...like 3 years ago.
Agreed.
Of course I’d love to see USC and the SEC matchup, but everyone in the Big 12 South is going to have to lose one more time for that to happen.
Pretty much. I think we are headed to another year where there’s a blowout in the NC game and USC blows out Penn St. and the pundits feel compelled to suggest that they “may actually be the best team in college football right now.” Statements like that our made every year about different teams (like Georgia last year), I just find it funny that after all this SEC/USC dominance in college football, we have yet to see those two foes meet in a meaningful bowl game. I support the current BCS system only because it gives our Bears a guaranteed shot at the Rose Bowl. For entertainment purposes, as has been discussed just about everywhere on the internets, it blows.
Flawed arguments
A) “Michigan in decline”? Remember, in 2007, that was a Michigan team many thought should be in the BCS NC game.
B) Oklahoma? Remember, during the regular season, they blew out all their opponents. They had Jason White and All Day. Oklahoma was a great team, just USC was one of the best ever.
C) USC does own the SEC. As has been pointed out, examine wins over Auburn and Arkansas, especially against Arkansas in 2006. On that note, I would pay to watch USC-LSU.
What, this year? Final score would be 45-0. LSU stinks this year.
by BearsNecessity on Nov 12, 2008 1:53 PM PST up reply actions
Alabama's also pretty overrated. Their success pretty much comes down to Nick Saban's deal with the devil.
The Sports Illustrated cover would be Taylor Mays decapitating Julio Jones.
no doubt alabama came out of nowhere this year
I’m a level headed alabama fan… to be honest the SECCG makes me more than a little nervous… florida will be a huge challenge this year. alabama has had a little of everything this season. a little luck: lack of season ending injuries to key players and the ball bouncing our way a few times. a little cushion: jumping out to large 1st half leads. a little discipline: few penalities. a little guts: learning to compete the full 60 minutes. a little attitude: underdog status in big games (except LSU). the defense is aggressive and the offense dependable. I don’t think alabama is overrated for two reasons: 1) because I believe as the season has progressed they have improved in the areas they needed to improve 2) maybe the teams we beat were overrated i.e. clemson and georgia, but we still beat them. wins against the two remaining teams on their schedule surely will not convince anyone they are not overrated, the true test comes against florida. we know this alabama team is good this year, but is it great? honestly who thought texas tech had a chance against texas? texas was looking invincible… the top six teams this week all look equally worthy of having a go at the NC this year. lets get those conference championships behind us and see who remains.
Good to Great
I hope it didn’t come across that I was arguing Alabama was a bad, or even mediocre team. Teams at that level do not win 9 games. But I don’t buy them finishing the season #1. Right now I can see probably 7 teams I’d put in front of them (meaning if they played one game, I’d pick ’Bama to lose): USC, Florida, Texas, T. Tech, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, and (probably) Penn St.
Being 8th in the country is not bad, not bad at all.

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